To The Moon

Alphabet overtaking Apple is less about a single trading session and more about how the market is re-pricing AI execution paths.

Can AI momentum still drive multiple expansion for Alphabet?

In the near term, yes, but selectively.

Alphabet’s rerating is grounded in credible monetisation, not speculative AI optionality. Search, YouTube, and Cloud now show tangible AI-driven uplift through ad efficiency, enterprise workloads, and productivity tools. That supports earnings upgrades, which can justify some further multiple expansion.

However, at record highs, valuation expansion will likely slow. From here, upside depends more on earnings compounding than multiple re-rating. In other words, Alphabet is transitioning from “AI promise” to “AI operator”. That is bullish, but also more disciplined.

Platform-scale players vs hardware giants in the AI race

This is not a zero-sum choice. They occupy different layers of the AI stack.

Platform-scale players like Alphabet control distribution, data, and recurring demand. Their advantage lies in embedding AI into everyday workflows at massive scale, creating durable cash flows with relatively lower cyclicality.

Hardware leaders like Nvidia dominate the picks-and-shovels layer. Nvidia benefits first and most aggressively from AI capex cycles, but is more exposed to supply cycles, competition, and customer bargaining power over time.

My preference

For risk-adjusted returns, I favour platform-scale players such as Alphabet. They monetise AI continuously rather than episodically and can absorb technological shifts more flexibly.

For alpha and cyclical upside, Nvidia remains unmatched, but expectations are already exceptionally high.

In short, Alphabet’s move past Apple reflects a market increasingly rewarding AI execution and monetisation, not just brand strength. The AI race is now less about who builds the fastest model, and more about who converts intelligence into cash flow.