To The Moon

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, before the market opens.

As the bellwether for the banking sector, JPM’s results will set the tone for the 2026 outlook. Analysts have recently revised earnings estimates upward, reflecting a "high-bar" setup where a simple beat might not be enough to drive the stock higher if the forward guidance is cautious.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) delivered a strong fiscal Q3 2025 performance, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. However, the report was a classic case of "strong numbers, cautious outlook," as management used the call to reset expectations for 2026.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

• Earnings per Share (EPS): $5.07 (vs. $4.84 expected).

• Net Income: $14.4 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year.

• Revenue: $47.1 billion, up 9% year-over-year.

• Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE): A robust 20%.

The quarter was powered by a massive surge in Markets Revenue (up 25%), specifically in Fixed Income and Equities, and a recovery in Investment Banking Fees (up 16%). While the consumer remains "resilient," the bank did build $810 million in net credit reserves, signaling a move toward a more "normalized" credit environment rather than the ultra-low defaults seen in previous years.

The Lessons from Q3 Guidance

The most critical takeaway for investors was not the Q3 "beat," but rather the 2026 framework provided by CFO Jeremy Barnum and CEO Jamie Dimon.

1. The "NII Peak" is Real

JPM raised its 2025 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance slightly to $95.8B, but then dropped a "reality check" for 2026. They set a preliminary 2026 NII target of $95B.

• Lesson: The benefit of high interest rates has officially plateaued. As the Fed continues its cutting cycle, JPM will have to rely on loan growth and fee-based income to offset the "squeeze" on interest margins.

2. Negative Operating Leverage is a Growing Risk

Management guided for $105B in expenses for 2026. This was higher than the Wall Street consensus ($102B–$103B).

• Lesson: JPM is choosing to spend aggressively on AI, technology, and the Apple Card transition even as revenue growth slows. If revenue doesn't keep pace with this 8-10% expense growth, profit margins will compress. This is why the stock initially traded lower despite the earnings beat.

3. The "Jamie Dimon Cautiousness" remains the standard

Dimon highlighted "sticky inflation" and "geopolitical uncertainty" as reasons for the bank's "fortress balance sheet" posture.

• Lesson: JPM will not "chase" yield or over-leverage to juice short-term returns. For investors, this means JPM is a defensive play; don't expect them to surprise the upside by taking on excess risk in a volatile 2026.

Summary Table: Q3 2025 vs. 2026 Outlook

Key Metrics to Watch

Net Interest Income (NII) Guidance for 2026: With the Federal Reserve having cut rates by 75 basis points in late 2025 (to a range of 3.50%–3.75%), investors are laser-focused on how much NII will be "squeezed." Look for guidance relative to the current $95.5B+ 2025 run rate.

The $105B Expense Target: Management signaled in December that 2026 expenses could reach $105B due to AI investments and tech modernization. Any sign that costs are ballooning faster than revenue growth (negative operating leverage) will be a major headwind.

Investment Banking (IB) & Markets Revenue:

• Markets: Expected to grow in the low-teens ($6.3B+).

• IB Fees: Expected to grow at a low-single-digit rate ($2.0B–$2.1B).

Apple Card Transition Impact: JPM is the new issuer for the Apple Card. Watch for the $2.2B provision for credit losses specifically related to this portfolio acquisition in Q4.

Credit Quality: Monitor the Net Charge-Off (NCO) rate, especially in credit cards (targeted near 3.3%).

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Price Target

Based on 23 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for JPMorgan Chase in the last 3 months. The average price target is $333.91 with a high forecast of $400.00 and a low forecast of $255.34. The average price target represents a 1.44% change from the last price of $329.19.

Trading Analysis: Short-Term Opportunities

Historically, JPM is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" stock. Even on strong beats, the share price often reacts to Jamie Dimon’s typically "cautious" or "conservative" macroeconomic commentary.

Expected Move: The options market is currently pricing in a ±2.8% move (roughly a $10 price swing). If you are trading the event, keep in mind that the implied volatility (IV) will collapse ("IV crush") immediately after the release, making "naked" options risky unless the move exceeds the $10 range.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing JPM trading sideways while trading to break its recent highs at $334.76, but the bulls did not manage to do so, as the market is still experiencing volatility with the rate cut decision coming up soon, though we are seeing broad market performance improving and one of the sector look to gain from the rate cut would be financials.

So it might be a good time to look at JPM, to see if it can gather some momentum, and if their chief, Jamie Dimon’s cautious 2026 guidance turned towards more positive, not forgetting that JPM is now trading near its record highs with a premium valuation (16.6x P/E).

Summary

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, before the market opens. This report is viewed as a critical "tone-setter" for the banking sector in 2026.

Earnings Estimates & Financials

• Consensus EPS: $5.01 (up ~4.2% YoY).

• Consensus Revenue: $45.71 billion (up ~6.9% YoY).

• Net Interest Income (NII): Expected around $24.9 billion, though rate cuts in late 2025 are beginning to pressure margins.

Key Analysis & Focus Areas

1. The "Expense Hurdle": Analysts are laser-focused on the $105B expense guidance for 2026. Investors are wary that aggressive spending on AI and the Apple Card transition could lead to negative operating leverage if revenue growth stalls.

2. Capital Markets Momentum: Growth is expected to be driven by Markets revenue (low-teens growth) and a continued rebound in Investment Banking fees, helping to offset the "NII squeeze" caused by falling interest rates.

3. Credit Quality & Apple Card: JPM is expected to record a $2.2B provision specifically for the Apple Card portfolio acquisition. Markets will watch for any signs of broader consumer credit deterioration as Net Charge-Offs (NCOs) normalize toward 3.3%.

Market Sentiment

JPM enters the print at or near record highs with a premium valuation (16.6x P/E). While JPM has beaten EPS estimates in 12 of the last 15 quarters, the stock often reacts more to Jamie Dimon’s cautious 2026 guidance than the quarterly beat itself.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think JPM could provide a stronger 2026 guidance and justify its stock price as it tried for another record highs even though it is trading with a premium valuation (16.6x P/E).

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.