To The Moon

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most. With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only. The consequences of striking Iran? If America follows through, markets will relive last July’s jitters: fears that Iran might choke off the Strait of Hormuz will resurface, and oil prices will spike on a wave of self-reinforcing speculation. But if, as before, the threat fizzles into empty thunder, any rally will prove fleeting—prices surging briefly, then sliding back just as fast. Markets are already pricing in the odds of an American strike on Iran. The clearer the threat, the faster oil climbs; the murkier it remains, the more prices will gyrate—until the dust finally settles. Crude oil edged above its 60-day moving average last week, a technical signal widely read as bullish. Futures traders might consider an initial stop-loss at Friday’s low of $57.50—intended as a level to trim exposure—and a secondary stop at last week’s trough, where full liquidation would be prudent. Options traders could instead buy three-month call options struck near $63 a barrel. The premium is relatively high, but if geopolitical risk flares abruptly—as it did last July, when crude surged more than 15% in a week—the position could deliver several times its cost. Such trades should be sized modestly: not as core holdings, but as inexpensive hedges against a sudden spike in oil prices. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2602(CLmain)$ Will these events push precious metals to new highs? Friday’s jobs report was solid enough to fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady in January—a modest headwind for gold and silver. Yet two successive weekends of geopolitical shocks—first the strike on Venezuela, now threats against Iran—have reignited safe-haven demand. Even at elevated levels, bullion remains the asset of choice: few alternatives offer comparable refuge. Trend-following traders might use moving averages as dynamic support. For silver, the 10-day moving average offers a clean exit trigger—closing below it would warrant unwinding long positions. Gold, meanwhile, can be monitored relative to its recent low near 4,350 (in local pricing terms); a decisive break beneath that level would signal fading risk appetite. Until then, markets will await further developments from Tehran. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2603(YMmain)$ $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2602(MGCmain)$ $Micro Silver Futures - main 2603(SILmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2602(1OZmain)$ $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$