To The Moon

Here is a realistic, evidence-based assessment of how Intel might behave after it reports its Q4 2025 results after market close on 22 January 2026:

What the market is currently pricing in

• The stock is up sharply in 2026, rallying ~30 per cent year-to-date and extending gains from an exceptional 2025. 

• Analyst price targets range roughly from US$50 to US$60, with some recent upgrades tied to foundry momentum and strong server CPU demand. 

• Despite the rally, broad Wall Street sentiment remains more mixed than uniformly bullish, with the consensus rating tilted to “Hold” rather than Buy and a wide dispersion of targets. 

Two plausible post-earnings scenarios

1. Continued upside (“jump on further earnings surprise”)

This is credible if Intel delivers not just a beat but forward guidance that suggests accelerating growth in its strategic segments. Key drivers for a positive surprise could include:

• Better-than-expected revenue or EPS, particularly if data-centre or client CPU demand is stronger. Consensus models show a potential year-over-year decline in earnings for Q4, so beating that would be surprising in a positive way. 

• Strong guidance for 2026, especially around margin expansion, cash flow improvement or traction in the foundry business.

• Confirmation that Intel’s advanced nodes (eg 18A/Panther Lake) are gaining adoption and boosting ASPs.

If these materialise, historical evidence of post-earnings announcement drift suggests the stock could continue drifting higher beyond the announcement day rather than simply spiking and retreating. 

2. “Sell the news” reaction

This is equally plausible on fundamentals:

• A significant part of the current share price appreciation is already priced in. Technical indicators suggest the stock has been extended and overbought in recent sessions. 

• The median analyst rating remains non-committal. A beat narrowly on earnings but disappointing guidance is a classic trigger for a rally to reverse. 

• Some analyst commentary argues that sentiment is outrunning fundamentals and that expectations for Intel’s turnaround remain far ahead of actual results. 

In that case, even a modest beat might prompt profit-taking. Retail and short-term institutional traders frequently reduce exposure into the event, a “sell the news” pattern observed across many earnings cycles.

Key determinants of the post-earnings move

Guidance quality

Markets pay as much attention to forward outlook as to the quarter itself. A conservative or muted 2026 outlook could offset any beat.

Segment performance

Outperformance in strategic growth areas (data centre, foundry) would support upside; weakness in core PC components could counterbalance that.

Valuation anchor points

With valuations elevated relative to typical semiconductor peers and some price targets now at the upper end of the range, the stock may become more sensitive to guidance than actual results.

What history suggests

• Post-earnings announcement drift suggests that when companies report stellar results with strong guidance, the abnormal return can persist for weeks. 

• However, when expectations are already high, markets often sell the news if the report is simply good rather than great.

Conclusion

There is no single “correct” way Intel will close after earnings, but probability leans on a mixed outcome:

• Upside continuation if the company significantly beats and raises guidance, particularly in AI/data centre or foundry segments.

• Sell-the-news pressure if the results are in line with expectations or guidance is cautious.

• Even in the former case, moves could be volatile intraday with rotation out of tech if broader markets are jittery.