To The Moon

📊$Netflix (NFLX) $ Will release Q4 2025 earnings on January 20 after hours, judging from the current market consensus expectations, the overall tone is still positive. Q4 revenue is expected to fall in$119-$12 billion range, the year-on-year growth rate remained atMiddle double digits (approximately 16%-17%), the core drivers come from the adjustment of subscription prices, the continuous optimization of the paid user structure, and the gradual increase in the advertising business. The earnings side is also solid, analysts expectEPS around $5.4-$5.5, operating margins are close to24%, continuing Netflix's recent quarters "Revenue growth + margin improvement"Benign trend. 📈

From the perspective of growth logic, the market generally believes that Q4 is still NetflixConcentrated expression of content power and liquidity。 On the one hand, price increases and account sharing governance bring aboutARPU BoostStill on sustained release; On the other hand, the ad-supported subscription tier (Ads Tier) is seen as one of the most imaginative new engines in the medium and long term. Although the current proportion of advertising revenue in the overall revenue is still limited, the growth rate is fast and the flexibility is high. Investors are more concerned about the management's response to the conference callAdvertising business scale and growth rhythm in 2026Guidelines. 👀 At the same time, popular dramas and sports and entertainment content at the end of the year will also help maintain user activity and payment stickiness, providing support for fundamentals.

It is worth noting that investor focus has clearly shifted from "New subscribers"Turn"Revenue, Margin, and Free Cash Flow”。 Netflix has also made it clear before that it will gradually downplay the traditional indicator of net user increase. Therefore, in this financial report,Management's presentation of earnings quality, business model maturity and long-term cash generation ability, may be more valuable than user data in a single quarter. 🔍

Of course, short-term risks remain. The biggest variable is stillValuation matches expectations。 Under the background that the stock price has fully reflected optimistic expectations, if the Q4 profit margin or 2026 guidance is slightly lower than market expectations, the stock price does not rule out periodic fluctuations. In addition, potential mergers and acquisitions, the pace of content cost investment, and the impact of the global macro environment on consumer spending may also be repeatedly asked in the earnings conference call. ⚠ ️

Overall, the market's sentiment about Netflix's Q4 financial report is still bullish, but what really determines the short-term trend of the stock price may not be whether Q4 "just reaches the standard", butManagement's overall outlook for 2026 revenue growth, advertising expansion, and margin targets。 If the guidance remains stable or even slightly revised upwards, there is still room for further fermentation in market sentiment; On the contrary, it may bring about a healthy rebalancing of expectations.

NFLX Bull Put Spread Options Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors in$Netflix (NFLX) $OfPUT OptionsBuild aBull Put Spread Bull Put SpreadStrategy. The strategy passesSell higher strike price Put while buying lower strike price PutCompose of, belonging toLimited benefits, limited risksThe strategy of being too long or volatile is suitable for use when judging that the stock price will not fall significantly.

(1) Sell with higher execution price Put (main source of income)

• Sell 1 strike priceK ₂ = 83Put of

• Premium received$1.35/share

This Put is closer to the current stock price and is a major source of premium for the strategy. as long asNFLX Expiration Price ≥ 83, the Put will be completely invalid, and investors can keep all of them selling premium.

(2) Buy a lower execution price Put (risk protection)

• Buy 1 share strike priceK ₁ = 81Put of

• Payment premium$0.85/Share

This Put is used to provide protection in the event of a significant decline in NFLX, therebyLock in the maximum loss, to avoid the greater risk of naked selling Put in extreme declines.

(3) Put-side net income (per share)

Net premium = Sell Put − Buy Put = 1.35 − 0.85 =$0.50/Share

Initial net income

on account of1 lot of options = 100 shares：

• Net premium (per share):$0.50

• Initial net income (per contract): = 0.50 × 100 =$50/contract

👉 The initial net income is the bull market put spread strategyMaximum potential profit。

3. Maximum profit

WhenNFLX Expiration Price ≥ 83Time:

• Both 81 Put and 83 Put are extra-valent

• Both options lapse

Investors get maximum profits:

• Per share:$0.50

• Per contract:$50

4. Maximum loss

The largest loss occurs whenPut spread fully triggeredIn the case, that is, NFLX fell significantly.

Strike spread width: = 83 − 81 =$2

Maximum loss (per share): = Strike spread − Net premium = 2 − 0.50 =$1.50/Share

Maximum loss (per contract): = 1.50 × 100 =$150/contract

📉Occurrence condition：

• NFLX Expiration Price ≤ 81

5. Break-even point

There is only one break-even point for bull put spreads:

Breakeven Price = Sell Put Strike Price − Net premium = 83 − 0.50 =82.50

Maturity judgment rules:

• NFLX > 82.50 → Earnings

• NFLX = 82.50 → No Profit, No Loss

• NFLX < 82.50 → Loss

6. Risk and return characteristics

• Maximum benefit:$50/contract (limited)

• Maximum loss:$150/contract (limited)

• Profit-loss ratio: gain: loss ≈ 50: 150 ≈1: 3

7. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Bullish or shock bullish strategy

• Don't ask NFLX to rise, as long as it doesn't significantly fall

• Receive time value by selling Put

• When opening a position, you can clarify the maximum return and maximum risk

• Compared with naked selling Put, the risk controllability is significantly improved

Applicable situationsWhen investors judge:

• NFLX remains strong or range-bound in the short term

• Fall below before expiration81-83 intervalLow probability of

• Hope inDefine the upper limit of riskObtain premium income on the premise of