To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, January 22, 2026, after the market close.

Following a volatile but transformative 2025, Intel is at a pivot point. The stock has seen a massive "turnaround" rally over the last 12 months, fueled by federal funding and strategic shifts under new leadership. However, the Q4 report will be the "proof of concept" for its ambitious foundry roadmap.

Financial Estimates

Intel’s fiscal Q3 2025 earnings, reported in October 2025, were widely viewed as a "watershed moment" for the company. After years of struggling with market share losses and manufacturing delays, the results signaled that the "Turnaround" was finally taking hold.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

Intel delivered a massive "double beat," sending the stock up significantly in post-market trading.

Revenue: $13.7 billion (up 3% YoY), beating the consensus of $13.1 billion.

Adjusted EPS: $0.23, a massive surprise compared to the "breakeven" ($0.01) analysts were expecting.

Gross Margin: 40% (Non-GAAP), exceeding guidance of 36% due to better product mix and cost discipline.

Cash Position: Ended the quarter with $30.9 billion in liquidity, bolstered by $5.7B in CHIPS Act funding and $7B in private equity from NVIDIA and SoftBank.

Segment Highlights

Client Computing (CCG): Revenue hit $8.5 billion (up 8% QoQ). The Windows 11 refresh and the "AI PC" boom (Lunar Lake/Arrow Lake) drove high-margin sales.

Data Center & AI (DCAI): Revenue of $4.1 billion. While growth was modest (5% QoQ), the launch of Xeon 6 (Granite Rapids) showed Intel was finally stemming the bleeding against AMD.

Intel Foundry: Revenue was $4.2 billion. While the segment still posted an operating loss of $2.3 billion, it was an improvement over Q2, and management confirmed 18A (1.8nm) was on track for high-volume manufacturing.

The Guidance: Looking Ahead to Q4 2025

Intel provided the following guidance for the final quarter of the year:

• Revenue: $12.8B – $13.8B (Midpoint: $13.3B).

• Adjusted EPS: $0.08.

• Gross Margin: ~36.5%.

Note: The Q4 guidance appeared "lower" than Q3 at first glance. However, management clarified that this was primarily due to the deconsolidation of Altera (which is now a separate entity) and the heavy startup costs associated with ramping the 18A process node.

Lessons Learnt from the Guidance

The market’s reaction to the guidance provided three critical lessons for investors:

A. "The Supply Gap is Real"

Management admitted that demand is currently outpacing supply. While this sounds positive, it revealed that Intel's manufacturing capacity for its newest chips (like AI PC processors) is still tight. The lesson for 2026 is that Intel’s stock price is now capped not by orders, but by execution—if they can't build it fast enough, they can't book the revenue.

B. "The 18A Margin Valley"

The drop in guided gross margins (from 40% in Q3 to 36.5% in Q4) served as a reality check. It taught investors that technological success is expensive. Even if the 18A node is a winner, the initial ramp-up costs will eat into profits for several quarters before the "Golden Cross" of high-volume profitability is reached.

C. "Strategic Partnerships are the New Moat"

The guidance emphasized collaborations with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVIDIA and SoftBank. The lesson here is that Intel has stopped trying to do everything alone. By integrating NVIDIA’s NVLink and building custom AI ASICs for SoftBank, Intel is positioning itself as a "Swiss Neutral" foundry that can profit from the AI boom even if its own Gaudi chips don't beat NVIDIA's H100s.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors are moving beyond simple revenue beats; they are looking for structural health in the "New Intel."

18A Process Yields & Timeline: The 18A (1.8nm) node is the cornerstone of Intel’s survival. Analysts want confirmation that it has reached high-volume manufacturing (HVM) status. Look for mentions of "yield rates"—recent rumors suggest they are above 60%, which is critical for gross margin recovery.

Foundry Customer Wins: The market is hungry for names. Rumors of $Apple(AAPL)$ Apple, $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google, or NVIDIA using Intel’s 14A or 18A nodes for specific components could be a massive catalyst. Any firm contract announcement here would likely outweigh a small earnings miss.

Data Center (DCAI) Recovery: Intel has been losing share to AMD’s EPYC processors. Watch for the performance of Xeon 6 (Clearwater Forest) and the ramp of Gaudi 3 AI accelerators. Investors want to see if Gaudi 3 is actually gaining traction as a "budget" alternative to NVIDIA’s H100/B200.

Gross Margins: After dipping significantly in late 2024 and early 2025, the target is a "path back to 40%." If Q4 margins exceed the 36.5% non-GAAP guidance, it signals that the manufacturing inefficiencies are finally being solved.

Intel (INTC) Price Target

Based on 38 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Intel in the last 3 months. The average price target is $41.64 with a high forecast of $65.00 and a low forecast of $20.40. The average price target represents a -14.25% change from the last price of $48.56.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities

Intel is currently an "implied volatility" play. Options markets are pricing in an ~8.8% price swing following the announcement.

The "Relief Rally" Scenario (Bullish):

• Trigger: Revenue beat + 18A yield confirmation + new foundry customer name.

• Target: Resistance is seen near $52.00 (2022 highs). A breakthrough could push the stock toward the $60.00 analyst targets set by firms like KeyBanc.

The "Guidance Miss" Scenario (Bearish):

• Trigger: Weak Q1 2026 guidance + delays in 18A mass production + rising losses in the Foundry segment.

• Target: Support sits at $42.50. If that fails, the 50-day moving average near $39.00 is the next floor.

The "Volatility Crush" Strategy: * Since implied volatility is at the 77th percentile of its annual range, some traders may look at Iron Condors or Short Straddles if they believe the "turnaround" narrative is already baked into the recent price surge and the stock will stay range-bound.

Summary Sentiment

Wall Street is shifting from "Sell" to "Hold/Buy," but cautiously. The US Government's ~10% stake and NVIDIA’s $5 billion investment in late 2025 have provided a massive safety net, but Intel must now show it can actually manufacture chips as efficiently as TSMC to maintain this momentum.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

If we looked at Intel recent stock price move, it is currently trading above the 12-EMA pretty significantly, with a strong RSI momentum, so investors concern whether Intel has successfully moved from "survival" to "execution.", might be answered in this quarter earnings.

But this week trading show a sideway move instead of upside bullish move, did not come, so will Intel provide an earnings surprise to create a short rally post earnings release? I think we might need to watch the broader market sentiment as well.

Summary

Intel (INTC) is set to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, January 22, 2026. Following a year where the stock surged over 120%, this report is seen as a critical validation of CEO Pat Gelsinger’s "IDM 2.0" turnaround strategy.

Financial Expectations

• Revenue Consensus: ~$13.37B to $13.8B (down ~6% YoY, largely due to the deconsolidation of Altera).

• Non-GAAP EPS: ~$0.08 to $0.11.

• Gross Margin Guidance: ~36.5%.

Key Analysis & Strategic Pillars

The narrative for this quarter has shifted from "survival" to "execution." Analysts are focused on three primary catalysts:

1. The 18A Inflection Point: At CES 2026 earlier this month, Intel officially launched Panther Lake, its first high-volume consumer chip built on the 18A (1.8nm) process. Investors will look for specific yield data and production ramp timelines to confirm Intel has finally regained the transistor-density lead from TSMC.

2. Foundry Momentum: Rumors have intensified regarding major customers like Apple and NVIDIA exploring Intel’s 14A and 18A nodes. Any formal announcement of a "Design Win" or a multi-year supply agreement would likely overshadow the current quarter's financials.

3. Data Center & AI Recovery: While NVIDIA dominates training, Intel’s Gaudi 3 accelerators and Xeon 6 processors are gaining traction in "inference" and enterprise AI. A beat in the Data Center & AI (DCAI) segment would signal that Intel is successfully defending its server market share against AMD.

Trading Outlook

The options market is pricing in an implied move of ~8.8% to 9.7% post-earnings—significantly higher than the historical average.

• Bull Case: A "beat and raise" fueled by AI PC demand and foundry optimism could push the stock toward resistance at $52–$60.

• Bear Case: If gross margins continue to be pressured by high 18A startup costs or if China-related export restrictions weigh on the outlook, the stock could test support at $42.50.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Intel could provide a stronger earnings if it had succeeded in moving from "survival" to "execution.".

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.