To The Moon

$Intel (INTC) $The fourth quarter "report card" will be handed over after the market closes on Thursday. The current expectations given by Wall Street are not amazing: Q4 EPS is only US $0.08, and revenue is about US $13.39 billion, down 6% year-on-year. But what the market is really staring at is not these cold figures, but a bigger question-whether Intel's "turnaround" is real.

Look at the stock price first, the answer has been written in the K-line. Intel almost emerged from the "disliked" corner: the stock price will soar by more than 80% in 2024, leaving the S&P 500 far behind; At the beginning of 2026, it has risen by about 35%, and the cumulative increase in the past 12 months is as high as 149%. The day before the financial report, the stock price directly rose by 11% + in a single day, hitting a new high since 2022, and the market value also stood back above US $250 billion for a long time, and the sentiment reversed quite completely.

The market is betting on Intel again, and the core is still the data center line. Although the traffic portal in the AI era is occupied by Nvidia GPUs, the reality is very skinny: cloud vendors build data centers, and CPUs are still inseparable from Intel. The agency predicts that Intel's data center and AI-related business revenue is expected to increase by nearly 30% year-on-year to approximately US $4.4 billion. Some people even believe that server CPUs have begun to be "in short supply" this year, and the right to negotiate prices is returning to Intel, which is also an important reason why funds dare to chase all the way.

More importantly, there are "gold owner fathers" standing behind Intel. The U.S. government, Nvidia, and Softbank have successively invested real money in shares, which not only makes the balance sheet obviously look good, but also adds a layer of "national team + industrial team" aura to the advanced manufacturing process and foundry business. The 18A process is regarded by the market as a key node to benchmark TSMC's 2nm. Even if it is still in the climbing period, it is enough for investors to open up their imagination first.

Of course, there are many problems. The PC market is still weak, and the AMD and Arm camps are pressing step by step; Manufacturing repair burns seriously, and gross profit margins will inevitably be under pressure in the short term. Therefore, this financial report is more like a "stress test"-everyone has believed the story, and the valuation has been given in advance. What Intel has to do next is to use the data center demand and the substantial progress of 18A to turn this reversal The story is fulfilled paragraph by paragraph.

Intel (INTC) Bull Put Spread Options Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors in$Intel (INTC) $Of Put OptionsBuild aBull Put Spread Bull Put Spread。 The strategy passesSell higher strike price Put while buying lower strike price PutCompose of, belonging toLimited benefits, limited risksThe long or volatile long strategy is suitable for investors to judge Intel's stock priceNo obvious declineSituation.

(1) Sell with higher execution price Put (main source of income)

• Sell 1 strike priceK ₂ = 50 Put

• Premium received $0.82/Share

This Put is closer to the current stock price and is a major source of premium for the strategy. as long asINTC expiration price ≥ $50, the Put will be completely invalid, and investors can retain all premium rights.

(2) Buy a lower execution price Put (risk protection)

• Buy 1 share strike priceK ₁ = 48Put of

• Payment premium$0.43/Share

This Put is used to provide protection in the event of a significant decline in Intel's stock price, therebyLock in the maximum loss, avoid the downside risk of naked selling Put.

(3) Put-side net income (per share)

Net premium = Sell Put − Buy Put = 0.82 − 0.43 =$0.39/Share

Initial net income

• Net premium (per share):$0.39

• Initial net income (per contract, 100 shares): = 0.39 × 100 =$39/contract

👉 The initial net income is the bull market put spread strategyMaximum potential profit。

3. Maximum profit

WhenINTC expiration price ≥ $50Time:

• 48 Put and 50 Put are both out-of-the-money

• Both options lapse

Investors get maximum profits:

• Per share:$0.39

• Per contract:$39

4. Maximum loss

The largest loss occurs whenPut spread fully triggeredIn this case, Intel's stock price fell significantly.

Strike spread width: = 50 − 48 =$2

Maximum loss (per share): = Strike spread − Net premium = 2 − 0.39 =$1.61/Share

Maximum loss (per contract): = 1.61 × 100 =$161/contract

📉 Conditions of occurrence:

• INTC expiration price ≤ $48

5. Break-even point

There is only one break-even point for bull put spreads:

Breakeven Price = Sell Put Strike Price − Net premium = 50 − 0.39 =$49.61

Maturity judgment rules:

• INTC > 49.61→ Earnings

• INTC = 49.61→ No profit, no loss

• INTC < 49.61→ Loss

6. Risk and return characteristics

• Maximum benefit: $39/contract (limited)

• Maximum loss: $161/contract (limited)

• Profit-loss ratio: gain: loss ≈ 39: 161 ≈1: 4.1

7. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Too much or earthquakeSwinging too much

• Intel is not required to rise sharply, as long as it does not fall significantly

• Receive time value by selling Put

• When opening a position, you can clarify the maximum return and maximum risk

• Compared with naked selling Put, the risk is significantly controllable

Applicable situationsWhen investors judge:

• Intel remains strong or range-bound in the short term

• Fall below before expiration$48-$50 rangeLow probability of

• Hope inDefine the upper limit of riskObtain premium income on the premise of