Based on Intel's Q4 results and forward guidance, the current selloff appears driven primarily by near-term execution risks and supply constraints, though structural turnaround catalysts (18A/14A nodes) remain pivotal for long-term recovery. Key factors:
1. Q1 Guidance Weakness: Near-Term Execution Headwinds.
Revenue Guidance (11.7B–12.7B) missed consensus ($12.6B), citing supply constraints limiting Data Center/AI chip shipments.
Gross Margin Guidance (34.5%) fell sharply from Q4's 37.9%, reflecting yield issues and higher startup costs for 18A production.
EPS Guidance ($0.00) implies profitability pressure despite cost-cutting efforts.
2. Long-Term Catalysts: 18A Momentum vs. 14A Uncertainty
18A Progress:
Mass production underway (first U.S.-based leading-node fab), with Microsoft's "Griffin" AI accelerator order secured.
Potential design wins from NVIDIA, AMD, and others if yields improve.
14A Transition Risk:
Roadmap acceleration to 14A (beyond 18A) may divert R&D resources and delay customer adoption timelines.
External foundry customers remain cautious pending 18A yield validation.
3. Execution Risks: The Core Concern
Historical Inconsistency: Past node delays (e.g., 10nm, 7nm) undermine confidence in 18A/14A execution.
Margin Pressure: Q1 gross margin guidance suggests 18A yields are not yet optimal, impacting near-term profitability.
Leadership Transition: New CEO's restructuring may take years to show results, with AI opportunities still lagging peers.
4. Valuation Context
Current PE (TTM): 1367.54 (loss-making) vs. Forward PE: 16.66 – reflecting high expectations for future earnings.
Post-selloff, shares trade near 52.90(52−weekhigh:54.60), with technical support at 48–50.
Conclusion: High-Risk Inflection Point
Intel's selloff stems from near-term operational gaps (supply/margins), but the long-term thesis hinges entirely on 18A/14A execution:
Opportunity Case: If 18A yields improve by mid-2026 and customer pipeline expands (e.g., NVIDIA adopts 14A), current prices may be attractive.
Trap Case: Persistent execution issues or 14A delays could erode foundry credibility, extending financial pressure.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
