With the S&P 500 back to flat YTD, double-digit gains in 3 months is possible but not the base case. I’d frame it as +4% to +8% unless we get multiple upside catalysts (clean earnings beats + softer inflation + clearer rate-cut path).
Rotation: I’d still anchor in S&P 500 (quality + AI leaders), and only add Russell 2000 tactically if:
yields stop rising,
USD cools off,
and breadth improves (small caps need easier financial conditions).
My plan: Core long SPY/QQQ, buy dips on headline-driven flushes, keep dry powder, and add IWM only on a breakout + falling yields. Not financial advice.
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