To The Moon

When I first bought TLT, I didn’t imagine it would become the largest holding in my portfolio. It didn’t promise overnight riches. It didn’t trend on social media. It was, quite literally, a basket of long-term U.S. government bonds — about as exciting as watching paint dry.

And yet, here I am.

TLT now sits at the top of my portfolio, quietly occupying the biggest space in both my investments and my thoughts.

Not Tesla.

Not Nvidia.

Not some exciting AI startup.

No.

Bonds.

Long.

Slow.

Boring.

Beautiful.

My average price is around $90.76. Today, it trades near $87.93.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

On paper, that looks like a loss.

If you stopped there, this would be a sad story.

The Plot Twist: Dividends

But portfolios, like life, are rarely that simple.

Because despite the lower price, TLT is still green for me.

Why?

Dividends.

Month after month, quarter after quarter, TLT has been paying me dividends. No drama. No excuses. No “maybe next quarter.” Just: Here. This is yours. Not spectacular sums. Not life-changing money. But steady, dependable income — like a small river that never dries up. Over time, those payments accumulated, softened the price drop, and quietly turned what looked like a losing position into a profitable one.

There is something deeply satisfying about that.

Even more satisfying is the fact that there’s no 30% withholding tax on TLT dividends for me. That means more of what I earn actually stays in my pocket. No silent leak. No invisible drain.

That matters.

A lot.

And I like that.

I like waking up and knowing that, whether the market is panicking or celebrating, something is still flowing into my account.

Falling Rates and Rising Hopes

Of course, dividends are only part of the story.

The reason people buy TLT isn’t just for dividends.

The real dream with TLT is capital appreciation — the moment when price finally rises and confirms that patience was worth it.

TLT is built on long-term U.S. Treasuries. And long-term bonds have one great weakness and one great strength: interest rates.

When rates rise, bonds suffer.

When rates fall, bonds shine.

But Reality Is Slower Than Hope

Here’s the truth, though:

Interest rates are stubborn.

They don’t fall because we want them to.

They fall when the economy is tired. When growth slows. When inflation cools. When politicians panic. When recessions whisper in the background.

Right now, we live in a world that still remembers high rates. Inflation, central banks, cautious policymakers — they all move slowly. They hesitate. They negotiate with reality before making big decisions.

So yes, falling interest rates could push TLT much higher.

But no, it probably won’t happen tomorrow.

It might take time.

Long enough to test my patience.

Long enough to make me doubt myself.

Long enough to separate conviction from impulse.

But markets rarely reward impatience.

That’s why I’m prepared to wait.

Other Winds That Could Lift TLT

Beyond interest rates, there are other forces that could carry TLT upward.

Fear, for example.

Whenever the world feels unstable — recessions — money runs toward safety. And few things are safer than U.S. Treasuries. When fear rises, bonds often become shelter.

Then there’s inflation.

If inflation cools down, long-term bonds become more attractive. Fixed payments suddenly feel valuable again. Investors start paying more for certainty. TLT benefits.

And then there’s simple demand.

Pension funds. Institutions. Conservative investors. Retirement portfolios. Some of them need long-duration bonds. Over time, that demand doesn’t disappear.

The Evaluation: Am I Early, Wrong, or Just Patient?

So where does that leave me?

I hold TLT at $90.76. It trades at $87.93. It pays me regularly. It keeps me green. It asks for patience.

Am I early?

Possibly.

Am I wrong?

I don’t think so.

Am I patient?

I’m learning to be.

Falling rates may take time. The economy may resist slowing down. Central banks may hesitate longer than expected. The market may test everyone’s nerves before rewarding conviction.

But while all of that happens, I’m not standing still.

I’m collecting dividends.

I’m compounding quietly.

Every payout reduces my emotional dependence on price. Every dividend makes the waiting easier. Every month strengthens my position.

This is not a get-rich-quick story.

This is a get-rich-slowly story.

And Then… Hopefully

And then, hopefully, one day, maybe a year from now, maybe three, maybe five — something will change.

A rate cut. A recession. A policy shift. A market panic.

Nothing guaranteed. Nothing promised.

Just the possibility of a turn.

Long-term bonds may start looking attractive again.

TLT may begin to climb.

People will talk about it on financial channels. Articles will appear. Analysts will rediscover it. “Why long-term bonds are back,” they’ll say.

And I’ll smile.

Not because I predicted it perfectly.

But because I stayed patient long enough to give it a chance.