First up on the chopping table, UnitedHealth.
Defensive. High-quality. Everyone’s “sleep-well-at-night” stock.
Earnings out — stock plunges.
That alone is a warning.
But here’s where it gets uncomfortable.
At the same time:
• Semiconductors are no longer reacting well to good news
• Rallies are getting sold into
• Leadership is narrowing, not expanding
This is not random.
This is late-cycle behaviour.
In healthy markets:
• Defensives protect capital
• Cyclicals lead
• Good earnings get rewarded
In late-cycle markets:
• Defensives break
• Cyclicals lose forgiveness
• Even strong numbers fail to save price
That’s exactly what we’re seeing.
Healthcare cracks.
Semis stall.
Volatility refuses to die.
This is how regime changes start — not with crashes, but with trust breaking.
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