To The Moon

With $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ coming up on 30 Jan Pre-market, will we see it creating another exceptional run after its earnings?

SoFi is heading into its Q4 2025 earnings report (scheduled for January 30, 2026) in a bit of a "tug-of-war" phase. While the company has fundamentally transformed into a profitable bank, the stock's recent performance and valuation suggest that the market is demanding perfection.

Here is the breakdown of whether we’re looking at another "exceptional rally" or "heavy volatility."

The Bull Case: Why an Exceptional Rally is Possible

SoFi has a habit of "sandbagging"—providing conservative guidance and then blowing past it. For an exceptional rally to occur, they likely need to hit these three notes:

EPS "Super-Beat": The consensus for Q4 is around $0.12, but some analysts hint at higher. If SoFi reports something closer to $0.15 or higher, it signals that their "sustainable monetization" phase is moving faster than expected.

The 2026 Guidance "Golden Number": Management has previously teased a 2026 EPS target of $0.55–$0.80. If they officially guide for the high end of that range (above the market consensus of $0.58), it would force analysts to re-rate the stock.

Diversification Alpha: Investors want to see that the Tech Platform (Galileo) and Financial Services segments are now comfortably carrying the weight as lending remains sensitive to interest rates.

The Volatility Case: Why It Might Get Rocky

The options market is currently pricing in an implied move of approximately ±9.66% following the announcement. Here’s what could trigger a downward swing or high volatility:

"Priced for Perfection": Trading at roughly 45–48x forward earnings, SoFi is valued much more like a high-growth tech company than a bank (for context, PayPal and Block often trade at lower multiples). Any slight miss on member growth or revenue could trigger a valuation "correction."

The $1.5 Billion Capital Raise: The recent capital raise in late 2025 caused some dilution concerns. Investors are still skeptical about why the company needed that much cash if they are already GAAP profitable.

Technical Resistance: The stock has struggled to break and hold the $26.00 level recently. Without a massive catalyst, it may continue to trade sideways or dip back toward its $20–$22 support levels.

Analyst Sentiment Snapshot

Option Play - Bull Put Spread To Capture Opportunities?

I am bullish on SoFi as I am holding it for my long-term portfolio, so I would think that maybe a bull put spread might be a good way to play this stock ahead of its earnings.

Ahead of earnings, as I believe SoFi (SOFI) will either go up or, at the very least, not drop significantly below $23.20.

As of late January 2026, SoFi is trading around $24.60. I decide to set up a spread for the January 30, 2026 expiration (Earnings Day).

• Sell 1 SOFI $24 Put (Collect $1.10 premium)

• Buy 1 SOFI $22 Put (Pay $0.30 premium)

• Net Credit: $0.80 ($80 total per contract)

Outcome Scenarios after Jan 30 Earnings

1. The Bullish Win (Stock > $24)

SoFi reports strong growth and the price jumps to $27. Both puts expire worthless. You keep the $80 credit. Your job is done.

2. The "Flat" Win ($23.20 < Stock < $24)

SoFi moves sideways. If it stays above your breakeven of $23.20, you still make a profit, though it's less than the full $80 because the $24 put you sold still has some value.

3. The Bearish Loss (Stock < $22)

SoFi misses earnings and plunges to $18. This is where the "spread" protects you. Without the long put, you'd be losing dollar-for-dollar. With the spread, your loss is capped at $120, no matter how far the stock falls.

Key Considerations for SoFi

Implied Volatility (IV) Crush: Options are usually expensive right before earnings because of uncertainty. After the news breaks on Jan 30, the IV will "crush" (drop rapidly). This is actually good for me as a seller, as it sucks value out of the options you want to expire worthless.

SOFI implied volatility (IV) is 63.7, which is in the 61% percentile rank. This means that 61% of the time the IV was lower in the last year than the current level. The current IV (63.7) is 1.2% above its 20 day moving average (62.9) indicating implied volatility is trending higher.

The "Pin" Risk: If SoFi closes exactly at $24 on Friday afternoon, you might face "assignment," meaning you'd be forced to buy the shares. Most traders close the position before the final bell to avoid this.

Summary

We are more likely to see heavy volatility than a smooth, one-way rally. SoFi is no longer the "underdog" SPAC; it’s a $30B+ market cap player that is expected to deliver.

If the guidance for 2026 isn't just "good" but "extraordinary," we could see a squeeze toward $30. Otherwise, the "sell the news" crowd may take over.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think SOFI could still make another rally after its earnings amidst heavy volatility?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.