To The Moon

Hi Tigers,

🔥 $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ surged 2%+ Tuesday, and is breaking above the 20-week MA as markets absorbed the Fed's "pause" on rates on Wednesday

Hot sectors: Steel, rare earth & precious metals are still ruling the roost 🏗️⛏️

Tiger Community buzz: Investors are laser-focused on:

• 🤖 AI monetization plays

• 🌍 Global expansion stories

• 🛒 Policy-driven consumption stimulus

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Options traders— don't forget your hedges!

📈 This Week's Top 10 HKEX Picks from @Tiger_Contra 's column 👇 Breaking down the fundamentals, policy context, and technical levels you need to know.

⚠️For reference only. Not investment advice.

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• 1️⃣ Are you currently holding or trading any of these stocks? 📈

• 2️⃣ What else is on your HKEX watchlist? 🔍

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👇Let's dive into the detailed analysis for each stock.

⚠️ Disclaimer: All information is based on official company disclosures and publicly available market data, compiled for discussion and reference only.

1. 🚗 $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ | The "Disruptor" of Human-Car-Home Ecosystem

• Investment Thesis: Successfully scaling its integrated "Human × Car × Home" ecosystem, leveraging EV expansion tailwinds and green consumption policy support.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 113.12B (+22.3% YoY). Smart EV deliveries reached ~109k units with maiden operating profit achieved. Q4 revenue guidance: RMB 126.5B.

• Technical View: Consolidating within 35.50–38.00 HKD with building momentum. Bull case: Breakout above 38.00 targets 40–42. Bear case: Violation of 35.50 risks retest of ~34.50.

• Rating: Cautiously Bullish — rebounding from yearly lows with aggressive buyback support.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 35.00 Put / Long 34.00 Put. Capitalize on oversold rebound while limiting downside risk.

2. 🛍️ $BABA-W(09988)$ | The "Elephant Turns": AI Cloud Pivot

• Investment Thesis: Strategic pivot toward AI and Cloud infrastructure, benefiting from national digitization policies despite intense retail competition.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 247.79B; AI-related revenue growing triple-digits. Q4 revenue expected ~RMB 296B with increasing focus on cloud profitability.

• Technical View: Consolidating near highs within 168.5–178.0 HKD. Bull case: Decisive break above 178.0 targets ~186.2. Bear case: Loss of 168.5 risks pullback toward ~160.0.

• Rating: Cautiously Bullish — consolidation with upward bias driven by AI catalysts.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 170.00 Put / Long 165.00 Put. Benefit from time decay at defined support levels.

3. ⚡ $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ | The "Moat King" of Local Services

• Investment Thesis: Dominant local services platform with unmatched logistics network, leveraging consumption stimulus despite margin pressure from gig-worker protection regulations.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 95.5B (+2% YoY); significant net loss recorded. Q4 revenue growth expected ~4% with losses continuing.

• Technical View: Trading tight range 97.35–101.65 HKD. Bull case: Sustained break above 101.65 targets 105–108. Bear case: Loss of 97.35 opens test of 52-week low ~94.05.

• Rating: Neutral to Bullish — holding key support awaiting quarterly catalyst.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 97.50 Put / Long 95.00 Put. Generate income from supporting stability with defined risk.

4. 👑 $TENCENT(00700)$ | The "Cash Cow" of Social Empire

• Investment Thesis: Cash-rich gaming and social giant benefiting from regulatory stabilization and high-margin AI-driven advertising growth.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 192.9B (+15% YoY); Non-IFRS net profit RMB 70.6B (+18% YoY). Q4 adjusted operating profit growth expected >15%.

• Technical View: Consolidating 603–624 HKD amid institutional accumulation. Bull case: Breakout above 624 targets 650. Bear case: Loss of 603 risks test of ~590.

• Rating: Cautiously Bullish — range-bound with strong support expected to hold.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 600 Put / Long 590 Put. Capture theta decay betting on 603 support.

5. 🧸 $POP MART(09992)$ | The "Trend Engine" of Cultural Export

• Investment Thesis: High-growth cultural export plays rapidly expanding overseas, largely insulated from domestic regulatory pressures in the designer toy sector.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue +245-250% YoY; overseas online sales +300%. Full-year performance expected to double.

• Technical View: Consolidating 192.3–260.3 HKD with abating selling pressure. Bull case: Break above 260.3 targets 280–300. Bear case: Loss of 192.3 risks retest of ~180 zone.

• Rating: Cautiously Optimistic — mild bullish bias with strong support near 192.3.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 210.00 Put / Long 195.00 Put. Leverage mild bullishness above key support.

6. 🤖 $BIDU-SW(09888)$ | The "Full-Stack Pioneer" in AI & Autonomous Driving

• Investment Thesis: Transitioning from legacy search to AI and robotaxis, the primary beneficiary of China's strategic push for autonomous vehicle technology.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 31.2B (-7% YoY); AI Cloud +21%. Q4 core business expected QoQ recovery; ad revenue decline narrowing.

• Technical View: Consolidating 145–160 HKD after recent gains. Bull case: Decisive break above 160 targets 170–175. Bear case: Loss of 145 signals deeper pullback potential.

• Rating: Neutral to Slightly Bullish — digesting gains near multi-year highs.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 150.00 Put / Long 145.00 Put. Define risk to capitalize on stability or slight upside.

7. 🔋 $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ | The "Global Champion" of New Energy Vehicles

• Investment Thesis: Vertically integrated EV leader and lowest-cost producer, supported by domestic green incentives despite rising export tariff headwinds.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 195.0B (-3.1% YoY); net profit RMB 7.82B. Q4 revenue projected rebound >RMB 250.0B.

• Technical View: Fluctuating 98.35–105.65 HKD. Bull case: High-volume break above 105.65 targets 110. Bear case: Loss of 98.35 risks decline toward ~95.

• Rating: Cautiously Neutral to Bearish — defined range with potential to test primary support.

• Options Play: Put Ratio Spread — Long 100 Put / Short 2× 95 Puts. Position for potential breakdown utilizing low IV.

8. 📦 $JD-SW(09618)$ | The "Anchor" of Supply Chain Efficiency

• Investment Thesis: Supply chain leader maximizing profits from government appliance trade-in subsidies while maintaining steady, efficiency-focused retail dominance.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 revenue RMB 299.1B (+14.9% YoY); Non-GAAP net profit RMB 5.8B. Q4 revenue growth forecast slowing to ~1% due to weakening subsidy effects.

• Technical View: Consolidating tight range 113.5–116.4 HKD. Bull case: Sustained break above 116.4 targets 120. Bear case: Loss of 113.5 risks retest of ~110 support.

• Rating: Cautiously Bullish — constructive structure for bounce supported by institutional flows.

• Options Play: Bull Put Spread — Short 112.5 Put / Long 110.0 Put. Generate credit from support consolidation.

9. 💻 $SMIC(00981)$ | The "Solid Shield" of China Semiconductors

• Investment Thesis: Critical to China's tech self-sufficiency, enjoying state support and localized demand to offset geopolitical restrictions.

• Financial Snapshot: Q3 sales ~USD 2.38B; utilization rate 95.8%. Q4 revenue stable; gross margin maintained 18-20%.

• Technical View: Consolidating 77.4–80.0 HKD under short-term pressure. Bull case: Decisive break above 80.0 targets 85. Bear case: Loss of 74.95 risks test of ~72.

• Rating: Cautiously Optimistic — expecting consolidation breakout to the upside.

• Options Play: Bull Call Spread — Long 80.0 Call / Short 85.0 Call. Capture directional upside with capped cost.

10. 🦾 $UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880)$ | The "First Mover" in Humanoid Robots

• Investment Thesis: Early-stage humanoid robot pioneer at the forefront of state-backed "Future Industry" initiatives, accelerating commercial deployment in manufacturing.

• Financial Snapshot: 2025 revenue RMB 621M (+27.5% YoY); losses narrowed. Profitability is improving on humanoid robot commercialization.

• Technical View: Consolidating 141.0–148.0 HKD post-Airbus rally. Bull case: Sustained break above 148.0 targets 161.0. Bear case: Loss of 141.0 risks test of ~128.45.

• Rating: Neutral — awaiting catalyst within defined trading range.

• Options Play: Iron Condor — Short 148 Call/141 Put; Long 152 Call/137 Put. Profit from range-bound, non-directional price action.

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