To The Moon

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  

1. Current Context

• The stock has pulled back in 2026, down roughly 18% year-to-date, echoing a similar early-year slump in 2024 that preceded a very strong rally. 

• Consensus expectations for the Q4 results are for revenue north of ~US$1.34 billion and adjusted EPS around US$0.23, representing high-teens to low-double-digit growth relative to prior periods. 

• Valuation remains elevated relative to traditional software peers, with forward multiples reflecting very high expectations. 

2. Fundamentals and AI Positioning

Bullish structural factors:

• The company’s growth has been underpinned by accelerating adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) by both government and commercial customers. Commercial segment growth has materially outpaced government in recent quarters. 

• Analysts have revised longer-term growth forecasts higher, with some projecting 70–80% revenue growth in 2026 on continued enterprise AI uptake. 

• Repeat business and increasing contract values provide a meaningful “base” of future revenue with some predictability.

Risks and cautionary dynamics:

• Elevated valuation means that even strong results might not generate outsized multiple expansion if sentiment cools. 

• Institutional repositioning and broader software/AI rotation could weigh on shares around the event. 

• Government contract timing and macro uncertainty remain variables that could introduce volatility.

3. Post-Earnings Reaction and Momentum

Whether the stock “stages a comeback” similar to Meta’s AI-driven rally depends on several factors:

• A material beat on both top and bottom lines and strong forward guidance can re-establish confidence and prime a re-rating rally into the spring. Meta’s rally was driven by a combination of earnings delight and compelling growth narrative across multiple AI vectors. 

• Palantir has some similar narratives — scalable AI platform adoption, expanding enterprise footprint and defence/civil government demand — but it is structurally smaller and more cyclically sensitive than Meta.

• Meta’s rally also benefited from massive revenue bases and robust ad monetisation tethered to AI products. Palantir, by contrast, is still scaling sales and proving repeatable enterprise revenue streams.

Short-term thesis: Earnings that “beat and raise” could stabilise the share price and trigger a measured technical rebound. Sharp rerating into new all-time highs is less assured without materially stronger forward guidance.

4. Target of US$200 in 2026

• Hitting US$200 requires a combination of strong earnings delivery, a supportive macro backdrop for growth stocks and a rotation back into high-growth software/AI names.

• From current levels near US$145–150, that implies ~30-40% upside — plausible if earnings and outlook significantly outperform, but not easy if results merely meet expectations.

5. Is Palantir a Genuine AI Beneficiary?

Yes, in a structural sense:

• The company’s AIP platform and data analytics tools are positioned as key components in enterprise AI deployments and modernisation strategies. 

• Its growth trajectory, especially in commercial AI adoption, supports the narrative that it is less dependent on legacy software cycles and more aligned with next-generation data and AI infrastructure demand. 

6. Practical Positioning

Given the above, a disciplined position management approach might be preferable:

• Risk-reduction near term. Reducing exposure ahead of earnings mitigates event-driven risk.

• Incremental adds on weakness. If Q4 results are solid and the stock exhibits rotational weakness, adding in tranches could improve risk/reward.

• Focus on fundamentals. The long-term bull case hinges on sustainable growth, not episodic rerates.

Summary

• Bullish structural growth via AI adoption remains intact, with real revenue acceleration in both enterprise and government segments.

• Short-term performance will be heavily influenced by how Q4 results compare to very high expectations and whether management can extend the growth narrative into 2026.

• A Meta-like “AI rally repeat” is possible but not assured; it would require both earnings outperformance and broad technical rotation back into the growth cohort.

• US$200 is reachable but not straightforward in the absence of a substantial catalyst.