AI is no longer a growth narrative — it’s becoming a business-model risk, and the market has started pricing that in software first.
That is exactly how late cycles turn.
• Investors are no longer underwriting 3–5 years
• They’re discounting structural uncertainty
• Appetite to step in is low
That’s how multiples compress, even without earnings collapse.
We are now seeing a reprice in equities due to:
Phase 3 – Distribution / Fragility (Now ‼️)
Phase 4 – Repricing / Earnings Reality (Now ‼️)
Phase 5 – Capitulation / Reset (not yet ⚠️)
April and June will be the most crucial and dangerous window. With liquidity drying up, spending through the roof, being in-line with expectations are no longer enough. If your results doesn't blow investors away, the stock will be blown away. Microsoft and AMD has already been punished, who will be next? Or will the whole sector start being punished?
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