To The Moon

$Ford(F)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.

The setup for this report is unique: Ford is currently in the middle of a massive "engine swap" in its business strategy—moving away from large, money-losing electric SUVs toward a hybrid-heavy lineup and smaller, more affordable EVs.

Expected Financials (Consensus Estimates)

Wall Street is bracing for a significant year-over-year decline in earnings, largely due to a massive $19.5 billion restructuring charge related to canceled EV projects and shifting battery strategies.

Adjusted EPS: $0.17 to $0.18 (Down ~56% from $0.39 in Q4 2024).

Revenue: $41.16 billion (Down ~8.3% YoY).

Adjusted EBIT Guidance: Ford recently revised its 2025 full-year EBIT outlook to approximately $7 billion.

Ford's fiscal Q3 2025 earnings, reported on October 23, 2025, were a classic "beat and lower" story. While the actual numbers for the quarter were robust, the stock's reaction was tempered by a significant cut to full-year guidance.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

Ford delivered a "solid beat" on both the top and bottom lines, driven largely by the continued strength of its commercial and gas-powered segments.

• Revenue: $50.5 billion (Record high, up 9% YoY), beating estimates of ~$47 billion.

• Adjusted EPS: $0.45 (Surpassed consensus of $0.35–$0.38).

• Adjusted EBIT: $2.6 billion (Flat YoY).

• Free Cash Flow: $4.3 billion for the quarter, showcasing strong liquidity.

Segment Breakdown:

• Ford Pro (Commercial): The star performer, generating $2.0 billion in EBIT with an 11.4% margin. Software subscriptions grew 8% sequentially.

• Ford Blue (Gas/Hybrid): Generated $1.5 billion in EBIT. Pricing power remained strong for F-Series and Bronco.

• Ford Model e (EV): Continued to be a drag, posting a loss of $1.4 billion. While volume grew, pricing pressure and investments in next-gen platforms weighed heavily.

The Lesson Learnt: Guidance & "Black Swans"

Despite the Q3 beat, Ford lowered its full-year 2025 Adjusted EBIT guidance to $6.0B – $6.5B (down from the previous $7.0B – $8.5B range).

The primary lesson from this guidance cut is the fragility of the automotive supply chain and the impact of non-operational "shocks."

External Vulnerability (The Novelis Fire): The guidance cut was almost entirely attributed to a fire at a Novelis aluminum plant in New York. This disruption hit the production of Ford’s most profitable vehicles (F-150 and SUVs).

Lesson: Even when consumer demand is high, a single point of failure in the supply chain (aluminum for body panels) can wipe out billions in projected profit.

The "Kitchen Sink" Strategy: By lowering guidance in Q3, management essentially "cleared the decks" for the rest of the year. They admitted that the fire would create a $1.5B to $2.0B headwind in Q4 alone.

Lesson: Investors now expect Ford to use the end of 2025 to absorb all "bad news" (including the $19.5B restructuring you asked about earlier) to ensure 2026 starts with a clean slate.

Tariff Resilience: Interestingly, Ford lowered its expected tariff headwind from $2B to $1B, proving that their heavy U.S. manufacturing footprint acts as a natural hedge against trade volatility compared to peers.

Summary for Investors

The takeaway from Q3 was that Ford’s underlying business is actually performing at the high end of its potential, but it is currently being masked by one-time disruptions (the fire) and the massive costs of the EV transition.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors will likely look past the headline "loss" (caused by the $19.5B non-cash charge) and focus on the health of Ford's three core segments:

1. Ford Pro (Commercial & Fleet)

This is currently the company’s "crown jewel."

• Expectation: EBIT of ~$1.43 billion.

• Why it matters: It provides the cash flow that funds the rest of the company. Look for margins here; any sign of slowing demand in commercial trucks (Super Duty) or vans (Transit) would be a major red flag.

2. Ford Blue (Gas & Hybrid)

The "traditional" business is now the "bridge" to the future.

• Expectation: EBIT of ~$779 million (Down from $1.58B last year).

• Watch for: Hybrid Sales Mix. Ford had record hybrid sales in 2025 (over 228,000 units). If hybrid margins are expanding while ICE (internal combustion) margins stay steady, it proves their "middle ground" strategy is working.

3. Ford Model e (Electric Vehicles)

• Expectation: A loss of ~$1.2 billion for the quarter.

• Watch for: Progress on the Universal EV Platform. Ford has pivoted to a low-cost platform for smaller EVs (targeting a $30,000 price point). Any commentary on when this segment will stop bleeding cash (currently targeting 2029) is critical.

Ford Motor (F) Price Target

Based on 19 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Ford Motor in the last 3 months. The average price target is $13.62 with a high forecast of $16.34 and a low forecast of $11.00. The average price target represents a -1.29% change from the last price of $13.80.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities

Ford often experiences high volatility post-earnings because its results are complex (balancing record Pro profits against heavy Model e losses).

The "Bull" Case (Upside Potential): If Ford beats the low bar of $0.17 EPS and management confirms that the $19.5B restructuring is mostly behind them, the stock could rally. Investors love a "kitchen sink" quarter where all the bad news is dumped at once, clearing the path for a cleaner 2026.

The "Bear" Case (Downside Risk): If the cash effects of the restructuring (expected to be ~$5.5B over the next two years) are higher than anticipated, or if Ford lowers its 2026 outlook due to tariff concerns (especially on Mexican-built models like the Maverick and Mach-E), the stock could break below its recent support levels.

The Dividend Play: Ford traditionally pays a steady dividend (15 cents/quarter). In 2025, they also paid a supplemental dividend. Any announcement of a supplemental dividend for 2026 could trigger a quick 3-5% pop as yield-seekers jump in.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing the Ford bulls trying to hold the upside for a continuation though a sideway trade is likely, and RSI momentum is showing positive, and investors would be waiting to see if Ford can show improvement in its EV restructuring costs, which might trigger a possible “relief rally” if they could do it.

On the technical side, if we can see buy volume increase on Monday (09 Feb) ahead of Ford earnings, we might see a breakout to the upside. But it would be good to monitor how the price action goes for Ford before trading on its earnings.

Summary

Ford Motor (F) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Tuesday, February 10, 2026. This report is expected to be a "clearing the decks" moment as Ford navigates significant restructuring and supply chain disruptions.

The Financial Setup

• Earnings: Wall Street expects Adjusted EPS of $0.17, a 56% decline year-over-year. However, recent analyst revisions have trended upward, suggesting a possible beat.

• Revenue: Projected at $41.16 billion, down roughly 8% from Q4 2024.

• Restructuring: The quarter is headlined by a massive $19.5 billion charge related to the pivot in EV strategy, moving away from large electric SUVs toward smaller, profitable EV platforms and hybrids.

Key Metrics & Lessons

1. Ford Pro Performance: Investors will look for this commercial segment to continue carrying the company. With an expected EBIT of $1.4 billion, its high-margin software and service growth is Ford's most reliable profit engine.

2. Hybrid Momentum: Following record hybrid sales in 2025 (up 21.7%), investors want to see if these models can maintain "Blue" segment margins as purely gas-powered sales face headwinds.

3. The "Novelis" Recovery: A key lesson from Q3 was vulnerability to supply chain "black swans" (a supplier fire that cost Ford nearly $2B). This report will show how quickly Ford recovered that lost production for its profitable F-150 line.

4. 2026 Guidance: The most critical "lesson" will be management's outlook. After lowering 2025 targets due to tariffs and fires, the market is looking for a "clean" 2026 forecast with reduced EV losses.

Short-Term Opportunity

The "surprise" factor is high. Ford has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters. If Ford reports a beat and confirms that the bulk of EV restructuring costs are now behind them, it could trigger a "relief rally." Conversely, any increase in the cash-cost of restructuring or a weak 2026 outlook due to trade policy could see the stock test its 52-week support near $8.44.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Ford would be able to show improvement in the EV restructuring costs and trigger a possible “relief rally”.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.