To The Moon

This is not a clean rotation moment, but rather a sequencing question.

Gold reclaiming the $5,000/oz handle after a violent pullback is consistent with trend consolidation, not exhaustion. The structural drivers remain intact: central-bank accumulation, fiscal dominance risk, and portfolio hedging demand. From that perspective, JPMorgan’s view, as articulated by strategist Jason Hunter of JPMorgan, is internally consistent.

Copper leading in Q2 also makes sense tactically. Copper is more sensitive to:

inventory restocking,

China demand stabilisation,

infrastructure and grid spending tied to electrification and AI capex.

That argues for selective rotation into copper-linked cyclicals, but not wholesale liquidation of gold. Historically, in late-cycle or policy-uncertain environments, gold and copper can both work, just on different timelines.

On the $5,400 question:

Yes, gold can reclaim $5,400, but likely after another consolidation phase. A sustained move requires one or more of the following:

clearer Fed easing or loss of policy credibility,

renewed geopolitical stress,

or visible acceleration in central-bank buying data.

Base case: copper outperforms gold short term, gold resumes leadership later in the year as macro risk reasserts itself.

In short, this is a rebalance, not a rotation. Trim gold strength only if positioning is stretched; keep a core allocation intact while adding copper exposure on dips.