To The Moon

In the past two weeks,$Intel (INTC) $The stock price as a whole is in the rhythm of "the surge is blocked and the pullback/retracement is increasing": it was once touched in early FebruaryNear $51, and then fell back to the shock$46-48 Range(The intraday low on February 13 was about46.2, high point about48.95）。 This trend means that the selling pressure above is beginning to concentrate, and the market's risk appetite for the semiconductor and technology sectors is cooling down.

From a technical perspective,$50 is the first "psychological barrier + near-end intensive transaction area", the kinetic energy has weakened after several recent rebounds close to this position; More upper50.5–51One zone overlaps with the upper edge of the recent fluctuation range, forming a more "hard" pressure zone. If the strategy execution price is also taken into account,$52It can be regarded as "upward breaking confirmation level/risk capping level": once it effectively stands above 52 before expiration, the upward risk will be quickly amplified (but it can be capped by the spread structure).

The larger background is that the recent pullback/retracement in U.S. stocks dominated by technology heavyweights has intensified significantly. On February 12, major U.S. stock indexes fell significantly, and the Nasdaq fell about2%, S&P fell1.6%, the focus of market discussions is on "technology valuation pressure" and "uncertainty of AI investment returns"; Rising risk aversion also brought about a fall in U.S. bond yields (funds tilted towards defensive assets). In this environment, stocks such as INTC, which are sensitive to emotional and style switching, are more likely to encounter resistance from profit-taking and position rebalancing when rebounding near the pressure zone.

Based on the above-mentioned combination of "clear upper resistance and weakening market risk appetite",Using INTC's bear call spread (sell 50/buy 52) is more like betting on'rebounding past the line ': As long as INTC at expirationNot breaking 50, the strategy can retain net premium; Even if there is an unexpected rise, the risk is52The upper cap (the net income of your group of quotations$0.23/ShareMaximum loss$1.77/Share, breakeven point50.23, consistent with the logic of "pressure zone near 50"). If the subsequent index level continues to be dragged down by the weight of science and technology, this kind of "closing premium + capping above" structure is usually easier to manage the pullback/retracement than simply making directions.

INTC Bear Call Credit Spread Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors construct a Bear Call Spread strategy on INTC options.

This strategy is a bearish/shock strategy that collects premium, limited returns, and limited risks. It is suitable for judging that it is difficult for INTC to effectively break through the upper pressure area, maintain sideways or fall back before expiration.

1 ️ ⃣ Sell lower strike price Call (main source of income)

• Sell 1 strike priceK ₁ = $50Call

• Premium charged =$0.50/Share

This Call is closer to the current price and is the main source of revenue for Strategic premium. As long as the expiration price≤ $50, the option expires, and the investor retains all premium rights.

2 ️ ⃣ Buy higher strike price Call (control upside risk)

• Buy 1 share strike priceK ₂ = $52Call

• Pay premium =$0.27/Share

This Call is used to limit the risk when INTC rises sharply and avoid the amplification loss caused by naked selling Call.

3 ️ ⃣ Call-side net income (per share) Net premium income is:0.50 − 0.27 = $0.23/shareThis is the maximum available benefit of this strategy.

2. Maximum profit

When INTC Expiration Price≤ $50Time:

• Both Calls are out of the price

• All option lapse investors retain full net premium:

• Maximum profit (per share) =$0.23

• Each contract (100 shares) =$23Condition of occurrence: Expiration price≤ $50

3. Maximum loss

When INTC Expiration Price≥ $52Time:

• Both Calls are in-the-money

• Strike spreads are fully locked

Calculation: Strike spread =52 − 50 = $2Maximum loss (per share) = Strike spread − Net premium =2 − 0. 23 = $1.77/share

• Maximum loss per contract =$177Condition of occurrence: Expiration price≥ $52

4. Break-even point

Formula: Sell Call strike price + net premium =50 + 0.23 = $50.23

Maturity judgment:

• Price≤ 50.23→ Earnings

• Price= 50.23→ No profit, no loss

• Price≥ 50.23→ Loss

5. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Clear bearish/shock strategy

• Charge premium structure, time value benefits investors

• Maximum gain and maximum loss are determined when opening a position

• Compared with naked selling Call, the upside risk is capped

Applicable situations

When investors judge:

• INTC in50There is obvious pressure nearby

• Difficult to break through in the52Above

• I hope to obtain relatively stable income by selling time value

• Or establish a closing premium strategy when the implied volatility is high

The essence of this structure is: "With$1.77Risk, to gain$0.23"Income", usually the winning rate relies more on the judgment of "not breaking the 50/52 range"; Once the pressure level is effectively broken, the loss will accelerate (but the upper limit has been capped).