To The Moon

As of the close on Friday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,917.60, up 1.21% in the past 5 days.

But It was a disappointing end to what had otherwise been a stellar week for the S&P/ASX 200 Index and many ASX shares this Friday. After bumper sessions on both Monday and Wednesday, investors seemed to get a case of cold feet.

The five Australian stocks experienced significant gains in the five trading days, primarily driven by strong earnings reports and guidance upgrades released during this period.

These updates came amid a broader ASX rally, with financials and utilities sectors leading on resilient economic signals, cost management, and sector-specific positives.

1. $JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES-CDI(JHX.AU)$ +12.57%

Strong Q3 FY26 results (ended December 31, 2025) released February 10–11, 2026, triggered the surge.

• 30% net sales growth to US$1.24 billion (from US$953.3 million YoY), driven by AZEK acquisition adding ~US$275 million; organic growth modest but positive. Acquisition synergies exceeded expectations, boosting top-line despite soft US housing.

• Adjusted EBITDA up 26% to US$330 million (beat consensus by ~6.6%); management raised FY26 guidance midpoint to US$1.25 billion. Operational resilience and cost control offset lower reported profit, signaling turnaround.

• AZEK integration accelerating, with cost synergies surpassing FY26 targets and confidence in US$125 million annualized run-rate by FY27 exit. Early wins in distributor/dealer channels and material conversion from wood/vinyl unlocked long-term growth.

• Siding & Trim segment sales +10%, with retailer destocking ended and stabilizing demand outlook. Despite weak residential housing, execution improved outlook, justifying premium valuation.

2. $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ +11.91%

Gains tied to rising rare earth prices and sector momentum in early-mid February 2026, though major Q2 update was January 2026; recent buzz from NdPr price highs and policy support.

• Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) prices at multi-year highs amid tight supply and EV/defense demand.

• Government policies improving market function (e.g., US floor price talks, diversification support); CEO noted geopolitics as "friend."

• Q2 revenue +43% to A$201.9 million on higher selling prices (A$85.60/kg vs A$49.20/kg YoY), cushioning production shortfalls. Pricing tailwinds offset disruptions, sustaining positive sentiment into February.

• Sector leadership and downstream optionality (e.g., US expansion, magnet manufacturing). Immediate exposure to price upside without heavy policy reliance drives investor rotation to rare earths amid broader commodity firmness.

3. $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ +10.88%

Half-year FY26 results (to December 31, 2025) released February 10–11, 2026, sparked the rally.

• Record first-half cash profit +6% to A$5.45 billion (beat estimates), driven by market share gains in home loans, business lending, and deposits. Interim dividend hiked to A$2.35/share (from A$2.25, beat consensus A$2.31).

• CEO optimistic on economy despite elevated rates/inflation, lending volumes grew amid robust demand. Net interest margin dipped slightly on competition, but overall earnings resilience in high-rate environment boosted confidence.

• Improved credit quality and household relief from prior easing (though rates rose in early February). (Analysis: Better-than-expected activity reinforced banking sector strength, lifting peers.)

4. $ORIGIN ENERGY LTD(ORG.AU)$ +10.72%

Half-year FY26 results released February 11–12, 2026, with guidance upgrade.

• Energy Markets FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance upgraded to A$1.55–1.75 billion (from A$1.40–1.70 billion), midpoint above consensus A$1.62 billion. despite headline profit drop. Underlying profit A$593 million (down from prior but better than feared); adjusted free cash flow + to A$705 million.

• Electricity gross profit beat expectations; continued cost discipline. Improved performance in key division offset statutory profit fall of 45% to A$557 million.

• Opportunities in data centers/AI power demand near plants. Positions Origin for energy transition growth, adding long-term appeal amid utilities sector rally.

5. $ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(ANZ.AU)$ +10.48%

First-quarter FY26 trading update released February 11–12, 2026.

• Cash profit A$1.94 billion (+75% on 2H25 quarterly average; +17% excluding items), beat expectations. Revenue +1% (net interest income +0.4%, other operating +5%); customer deposits +A$39 billion. Balanced growth amid restructuring, with positive momentum into full-year.

• Expenses reduced sharply; cost-to-income ratio below 50% (first time); RoTE +173 bps to 11.7%. Productivity program removing duplication simplified operations, boosting efficiency metrics.