Amazon's stock just clinched its worst losing streak in nearly 20 years. It's giving investors AWS déjà vu. Investors are overlooking a golden artificial-intelligence opportunity that sits right in front of them, according to one analyst.
Amazon.com's (AMZN) stock is a "top pick" for Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak, who believes both Amazon Web Services and the company's retail business are shaping up to be massive beneficiaries of the AI wave.
While Amazon's $200 billion capital-expenditures budget for 2026 raised fears of overspending, Nowak wrote in a Wednesday note that Amazon is on track to reap an impressive "yield" from its spending plans. He reiterated his overweight rating and $300 price target, 50% higher than current levels.
Nowak's view isn't exactly a popular one on Wall Street. Amazon's stock posted its worst losing streak since 2006 last week and plunged into a bear market.ak believes increasing capex is a bullish signal for the cloud business - one that could help drive over 30% growth for the segment. Last quarter, AWS growth accelerated to 24%, the fastest rate in 13 quarters.
"Investing and opening data centers will still dictate the slope of growth," Nowak wrote. Amazon, like other hyperscalers, has been capacity-constrained, meaning that it can't bring data centers online fast enough to fulfill customer demand. Nowak is measuring Amazon's return on its investment through a "capex yield."
According to Morgan Stanley's "capex yield" framework, which looks at incremental revenue as a percentage of capex, AWS's base-case yield of roughly 34 to 40 cents is about 50% below its long-term historical average of 77 cents.
If that yield improves even slightly to 45 cents - which is still a 40% discount to historical norms - AWS growth could surge into the mid-30% range, according to Nowak. Such an outcome would far exceed current market expectations of 25% to 26% for 2026 and 2027, he noted.
Additionally, Nowak believes Amazon will get a lift from the rise of agentic commerce - meaning that AI agents, such as Amazon's Rufus or third-party tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT, will handle the researching and purchasing of products. Rufus has already shown a 140-basis-point boost to growth in gross merchandise value as of late 2025.
The bigger opportunity could come from Amazon's existing collection of inventory, shipping infrastructure and other technological investments. Amazon sits on valuable shopping data that will be essential to any agentic shopping application, whether it be for ChatGPT, Google Gemini $(GOOGL)$ $(GOOG)$ or Meta Platforms (META).
"We look for horizontal agentic partnerships to emerge, which will make investors feel more confident in [Amazon's] long-term positioning," Nowak wrote.
Amazon's stock currently trades at roughly 19 times Morgan Stanley's 2027 earnings estimate of $10.41.
On a price-to-earnings-to-growth basis, Amazon trades at a 0.8x - a 40% discount to its peer median of 1.4x. Even at Morgan Stanley's $300 price target, Amazon would still trade at a 13% discount to the peer median.
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根据用户查询和提供的新闻文章，摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak的论点是，投资者忽视了亚马逊巨大的人工智能潜力，这创造了买入机会，因为该股最近结束了自2006年以来最严重的连跌19。他看涨论点的核心是，亚马逊的大规模资本支出，特别是2026年计划的2000亿美元，并不是鲁莽的超支，而是一项战略投资，可能会通过推动亚马逊网络服务(AWS)及其零售业务4。
结论：摩根士丹利分析师布莱恩·诺瓦克(Brian Nowak)认为，亚马逊的股票代表着一个“黄金”但被忽视的人工智能机会，因为市场短视地关注近期资本支出担忧，同时低估了这些投资将为其带来的巨大长期财务利益。云和零售部门。
支撑点：
人工智能资本支出加速AWS增长：诺瓦克认为资本支出的增加对亚马逊云计算部门AWS来说是一个看涨信号。他认为，将更多数据中心容量上线可能会推动AWS收入增长超过30%。这得到了AWS近期表现的支持，上季度增长加速至24%，为13个季度以来的最快速度4。该分析师认为，亚马逊的基础设施建设将使AWS能够在增量云市场需求中占据领先份额，到2027年有可能成为新增份额最大的参与者26。
通过“代理商务”实现零售业务转型：在云之外，诺瓦克强调了亚马逊核心零售业务中“未被充分重视”的人工智能机会。他指出了“代理商务”的兴起，人工智能代理（如亚马逊的Rufus聊天机器人或第三方工具）可以彻底改变在线购物。这些代理可以处理复杂的多步骤购买决策，有可能直接在亚马逊平台4上推动更高的客户参与度和支出。
市场情绪和估值背景：这种看涨观点与近期市场情绪形成鲜明对比。亚马逊股价最近陷入熊市，创下自2006年以来最长的连跌纪录，原因是人们普遍担心大型科技公司的大规模人工智能支出将在没有足够的近期回报的情况下给资产负债表带来压力38910。诺瓦克300美元的目标价意味着较近期水平上涨约50%，这表明他认为当前的抛售是过度反应4。这种担忧影响了估值，亚马逊的远期市盈率接近26.31，低于45.9左右的历史平均水平，这表明如果他的增长论点被证明是正确的，这可能是一个打折的切入点。
更广泛的分析师共识和机构活动：诺瓦克的观点虽然明显看涨，但存在于一个复杂的环境中。分析师的总体共识仍然乐观，有47个“买入”评级，平均目标价为278.44美元1。然而，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司等著名投资者在2025年第四季度减持了亚马逊股份630股，而桥水公司等其他投资者则增持了28股，反映出在人工智能投资周期中对该股近期前景的不同看法。
结论：总而言之，分析师的观点表明，市场对亚马逊人工智能支出计划的惩罚性反应未能考虑到它所推动的增长的双引擎：AWS的加速扩张和通过人工智能代理实现的电子商务变革。他认为当前的股价疲软并不是基本面的崩溃，而是短期恐惧和长期战略定位之间的暂时脱节。