To The Moon

Do you think Tesla’s safety story holds? Will the March 9 report help or hurt TSLA? Are you bullish or cautious on FSD and Robotaxi? Drop your take below!

As the March 9 deadline nears for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ to submit critical FSD (Full Self-Driving) data to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), market focus on the safety of Tesla’s autonomous driving system has intensified.

Since Tesla launched its unsupervised FSD Robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025, 14 collisions involving Robotaxis have been reported. Headlines claiming “spiking accidents” and “broken safety myth” have spread rapidly.

Yet a data-driven view, stripped of emotion, reveals a far more nuanced reality: Tesla’s FSD safety case may still be strong.

FSD vs. Human Drivers: Data Still Shows a Wide Gap

According to Tesla’s official safety report, with supervised FSD engaged, the company records one major crash per 5.3 million miles driven. By comparison, the average U.S. human driver experiences a major crash every 660,000 miles.

This means FSD remains over 8x safer than the average human driver—even when including all assisted-driving miles. This statistic forms the foundation of Tesla’s safety argument.

The upcoming NHTSA submission will cover thousands of records from early FSD versions, with only 58 confirmed crashes. While the delayed filing has fueled speculation, the key will be the timeline: it spans FSD from early development through repeated updates.

• If accident rates declined linearly with software updates, it will validate Tesla’s algorithmic improvement.

• If old flaws persisted in newer versions, confidence could weaken.

Robotaxi Accidents: The Truth Behind the 14 Crashes

The 14 Robotaxi incidents have sparked the most controversy. Over roughly 800,000 total miles, that equals one crash per 57,000 miles—which appears much worse than the U.S. average of one minor crash per 222,000 miles.

But this is a classic apples-to-oranges comparison:

1. Driving environment

   Robotaxis operate in complex urban areas, while human-driving stats include long, safer highway stretches.

2. Accident definition

   Under NHTSA rules, Tesla must report any incident with property damage, even minor scrapes. Examples include:

   • A Robotaxi hitting a stationary object while reversing at under 1 mph

   • A parked Robotaxi being rear-ended

     These would often go unreported in human driving statistics.

A detailed breakdown of the 14 accidents:

• 8 occurred at speeds below 6 mph, including 5 at 0–2 mph. Most were low-speed minor contacts, not high-speed failures.

• Multiple cases were non-fault: the Robotaxi was stopped or rear-ended. Only 3 involved moving collisions with other vehicles.

• Safety trend improving: 7 accidents in the first 250,000 miles vs. 7 in the next 550,000 miles. The accident rate nearly halved.

As Elon Musk noted: “If something goes wrong once in 10,000 trips, it becomes a problem.”

At ~4.3 miles per trip (Waymo estimate), 800,000 miles equals ~186,000 trips.

14 crashes = one accident per ~13,300 trips — far from “out of control.”

Investor Perspective: What to Watch After March 9

For investors, the March 9 data will clarify two critical points:

1. The violation rate and repair progress in early FSD versions.

2. Whether NHTSA will take enforcement action based on historical data.

If the data shows early flaws but major improvements in newer versions, the impact on the stock is likely to be limited.

More important will be Robotaxi scaling progress. The 14 accidents caused no serious fatalities, and most were minor. As the fleet grows, raw accident numbers will rise—but regulators and the public will accept this as long as rates keep falling and severe crashes are avoided.

Compared to Waymo, Tesla has an edge in fleet size and iteration speed. Waymo also faced early complaints and accidents in San Francisco, but its per-million-mile crash rate is now acceptable. Tesla’s real-world data could let it improve even faster.

Safety Narrative Still Intact — But Needs Confirmation

Based on current data:

• Supervised FSD is safer than human driving.

• Most Robotaxi accidents are low-speed, non-fault, or minor.

• Accident rates are improving with more miles.

If the March 9 report confirms Tesla is systematically fixing early flaws, the answer to “how much longer can Tesla play the safety card?” will be:

At least until autonomous driving goes mainstream.

Risks remain:

• If new FSD versions fail to fix old issues.

• If NHTSA orders a recall over widespread defects.

In those scenarios, Tesla’s FSD safety narrative would face its real test.

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