To The Moon

Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball.

So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple:

Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail.

Let’s break it down.

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🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran

The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons.

First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies.

Second, there is no clear endgame strategy yet. The official reason is to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but the broader geopolitical objective remains uncertain.

Whenever a conflict lacks a clear resolution path, markets hate it.

And nervous markets create volatility — which option sellers love.

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🛢 Why Oil Is the Main Character

Iran may not be the largest producer in the world, but it is still significant.

Iran produces roughly 3% of global oil supply and is the fourth largest producer within OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).

The real risk is not production itself — it is geography.

If tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, a major global shipping route, oil supply could be disrupted.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through that narrow strait.

In a worst-case scenario where it becomes blocked, analysts estimate crude oil could surge to $100–$150 per barrel.

That creates three big market problems:

1️⃣ Oil price shock

2️⃣ Inflation spikes again

3️⃣ Interest rate cuts get delayed

Which means central banks like the Federal Reserve would struggle to cut rates.

High oil + high interest rates = slower global growth.

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🐶 What Investors Usually Do

Whenever geopolitical stress rises, investors behave very predictably.

Money flows into safe havens.

Two usual winners:

• US Treasuries

• Gold

Gold especially tends to shine during geopolitical uncertainty. That’s why many strategists remain bullish on the yellow metal.

If the crisis drags on, the bullish case for Gold gets even stronger.

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🐶 But Options Puppies Don’t Just Hide

Instead of hiding under the table, Options Puppies sniff for premium.

High volatility means juicy options pricing.

Oil-related ETFs suddenly become excellent places to sell options.

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🛢 US Oil & Gas ETFs Perfect for Selling Options

Here are some liquid ETFs with active options markets.

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🛢 1. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund

This is the largest energy ETF in the US.

Top holdings include giants like:

• ExxonMobil

• Chevron

Why Options Puppies love it:

• Very liquid options

• Tight bid-ask spreads

• Moves nicely when oil spikes

Strategy idea:

🐶 Sell Cash Secured Put

Example idea:

Strike: 5–10% below market

Expiry: 30–45 days

Goal:

Either collect premium or get assigned energy stocks cheaper.

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🛢 2. United States Oil Fund

This ETF tracks WTI crude oil futures.

It moves almost directly with oil prices, so volatility can spike during geopolitical news.

Strategy idea:

🐶 Sell Covered Calls

If oil rallies quickly, you can:

• collect premium

• cap upside at a comfortable level

Perfect for short-term geopolitical trades.

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🛢 3. VanEck Oil Services ETF

This ETF tracks oil service companies like drilling and equipment providers.

It tends to move more aggressively than oil producers.

Why?

When oil prices rise, oil companies increase drilling budgets.

That benefits service firms.

Which means higher volatility = bigger option premiums.

Strategy idea:

🐶 Sell Put Spread

Good if you think oil will stay strong but want limited risk.

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🇸🇬 Singapore Play: Keppel Corp

For Singapore investors like us, a nice local energy-transition play is:

⚓ Keppel Ltd

Keppel used to be famous mainly for offshore oil rigs.

Today it has transformed into a diversified company focusing on:

• Infrastructure

• Energy transition

• Data centres

• Asset management

Even though its offshore & marine legacy came from oil, the company now benefits from global energy investment trends.

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🐶 Options Puppy Strategy for Keppel

Since Singapore options markets are smaller, we usually do:

Covered Call Strategy

Example idea:

Buy or hold Keppel shares.

Sell call options slightly above market price.

Outcome possibilities:

1️⃣ Price stays flat → keep premium

2️⃣ Price rises slightly → profit + premium

3️⃣ Price rockets → shares get called away at profit

Either way the puppy collects treats.

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🐶 CIO’s Big Picture (And Why It Matters)

Most institutional investors currently maintain this stance:

Equities: Neutral

Bonds: Overweight

Gold: Overweight

Cash: Underweight

The idea is simple:

Stay invested but prepare for volatility.

And volatility is exactly where options strategies shine.

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🐶 Final Thoughts from the Options Puppy

Geopolitical crises always create uncertainty.

But they also create opportunity.

Instead of reacting emotionally:

• Sell options when volatility spikes

• Focus on liquid ETFs

• Collect premium consistently

My current watchlist for options selling:

🛢 Oil ETFs

• XLE

• USO

• OIH

⚓ Singapore Energy Transition

• Keppel

As always, the Options Puppy motto:

“Don’t chase the market. Let the premium come to you.” 🐶

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$Keppel(BN4.SI)$  

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