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But nobody thought of a real solution like EV, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear.

It’s Not Just Oil. The Iran War Sparked a Supply-Chain Mess That’s Hitting Tech, Medicine, and More

Fallout from the Middle East conflict is rippling through the global economy—and growing worse the longer it lasts.

It’s Not Just Oil. The Iran War Sparked a Supply-Chain Mess That’s Hitting Tech, Medicine, and More

# Market Impact of Middle East Conflict and Inflation Concerns on Global Economy in March 2026

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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breAkdaWn
·03-21 10:44
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not iran war! US started it. US retreats, all is back to normal!
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- breAkdaWnReplying toZhongRenChun:
  better we go Mars, and do a reset!?
  05:36
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- breAkdaWnReplying toZhongRenChun:
  next focus, cement, steel,
  05:35
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- ZhongRenChun:
  and who is going to spend billions on rebuilding oil infrastructure in a war zone, where the strait of hormuz can be closed at any time? war can break out at anytime. what fool would invest their money in the GCC? People are fleeing the GCC by the millions. even 10 years will not recover. Venezuela
  03-21 15:38
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Dow industrials dropped over 200 points, reflecting an 8% decline from record highs. The conflict affected energy prices, prompting central banks to reconsider interest rate strategies. Precious metals and aluminum prices fluctuated amid inflation expectations and demand shifts. Economic indicators showed a slowdown, with mixed manufacturing and employment data. The World Trade Organization warned of slower trade growth if the conflict persists, highlighting broad economic uncertainty and market instability."}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>But nobody thought of a real solution like EV, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear.&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>But nobody thought of a real solution like EV, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear.&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"But nobody thought of a real solution like EV, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544759080019840","repostId":2620226672,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620226672","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1773999000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2620226672?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-03-20 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s Not Just Oil. The Iran War Sparked a Supply-Chain Mess That’s Hitting Tech, Medicine, and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620226672","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fallout from the Middle East conflict is rippling through the global economy—and growing worse the longer it lasts.","content":"<html><head></head><body>Oil tankers drifting aimlessly in the Persian Gulf may be the most visible economic symbol of the Iran war, but the damage is starting to spread to areas that aren’t as immediately obvious—American farmers, Asian chip makers, and European drugmakers, to name just a few. The war has sparked a supply-chain mess that’s disrupting the global economy and boosting inflation.The U.S. has seemed largely immune to the war’s impact so far, because of strong domestic production of energy and chemicals. Though gasoline prices have surged, there are no lines at gas stations in the U.S., as there were in the 1970s energy crisis. But on Tuesday, Moody’s economist Mark Zandi wrote that the war, along with a weakening U.S. labor market, has raised the odds of a recession in the next year to an “uncomfortably high 49%.”The rest of the world is in a tougher spot. Energy is the biggest problem in sheer dollar terms. The war has cut off access to about 20% of the world’s crude oil and another 20% of the liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that normally traverses the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. Oil prices are up about 50% since the war began.The impact on some other commodities, though, is starting to cause serious problems. Urea, a crucial fertilizer, and helium, which is needed to make microchips, are in short supply due to the war. Aluminum, a material used in everything from cans to cars, was already in a supply deficit before the war, and is now getting more scarce and expensive as output from the Middle East is curtailed. Some of these commodities have been in the direct line of fire—attacks on Qatar last week hit a processing plant that makes helium and sulfur as well as LNG, and are expected to take supplies offline for years, QatarEnergy’s CEO told Reuters.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/114528e2afdc07d6ece332b7553bcfb8\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"1214\"/>“Most people are just focusing on the energy market,” says Chris Tang, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles’ business school who focuses on supply chains. “But I think the impact is really far-reaching. People are just beginning to see it.”Just how this plays out for the global economy depends on how long the war lasts, say economists and supply-chain experts.A quick resolution—say, in three to five weeks—would push inflation higher but result in a relatively small hit to global gross domestic product. “You would have to take out your magnifying glass” to see the GDP impact, says Nathan Sheets, Citigroup’s chief global economist. In a more grinding and drawn-out scenario, the stakes rise. If Iran succeeds in blocking the strait for months, and oil stays above $100, Sheets thinks it could shave 0.9 percentage points off his expectations for 2.9% global GDP growth this year. J.P. Morgan sees a similar impact if the war drags on, with a 1.2 percentage point hit to GDP in the first half of the year. Inflation, too, would pick up significantly.Some areas face much more dire risks, and could be forced into recession or hyperinflation sooner. Asia and Europe, in that order, are most exposed, at least in the near term. A recession seems likely in Asia “if this drags on for a couple months,” says Jennifer Schuch-Page, a principal at The Asia Group. Historically, about 80% of the oil and natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia. Already, countries in the region are taking emergency measures to reduce the impact. China was the biggest buyer of Iran’s oil, but the world’s second-largest economy has been building reserves and diversifying in ways that cushion some of the blow better than its neighbors.India is facing a shortage of liquefied petroleum gas—used for cooking, heating, and powering factories—and has limited how much businesses are allowed to use to make sure consumers have enough. Some Indian restaurants have had to close for lack of cooking fuel. Sri Lanka is running so low that it declared that Wednesdays will be public holidays for the foreseeable future. Bangladesh is closing its universities early, and Pakistan is limiting fuel use by businesses. Emerging market stocks were leading global markets through February, but the war has “reversed that sharply,” notes Abhishek Gupta, executive director of research and development at MSCI.Richer Asian countries and major multinational businesses are also at risk. It isn’t just because of energy. Fitch Ratings warned this week that chip companies in Korea and Taiwan face looming shortages of helium —a gas used in semiconductor manufacturing. Helium cools so-called clean rooms where chips are made under extremely precise temperature and pressure conditions. Substituting another gas would entail completely reconfiguring the system, says Tang.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the world’s most important chip maker and arguably Nvidia’s most important partner. Asked about the helium shortage, the company toldBarron’sthat “we do not anticipate any significant impact at this time, and we will continue monitoring the situation closely.” Fitch sees the danger as more of “medium term” risk than an immediate supply crunch.For agricultural products, commodity shortages are more acute. The spring planting season is here, and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing. The Middle East accounts for more than a third of urea supplies and nearly as much ammonia and sulfur—chemicals that are hugely important to farmers. Nearly two-thirds of India’s nitrogen-based fertilizer comes through the Persian Gulf, according to Robin Mills, a fellow at Columbia University who is based in Dubai.Urea, a nitrogen-rich fertilizer that increases corn yields, is 32% more expensive since the start of the war. On top of that, farmers use a lot of diesel fuel, which now fetches over $5 a gallon at the pump, 38% higher than a month ago. American corn farmers have already dealt with three years of financial losses, and this year is setting up for a fourth, says Gretchen Kuck, an economist with the National Corn Growers Association. Farmers say they’re struggling to manage costs, which may lead to higher food prices in the months ahead. “We’re in a pretty tough spot today,” says Kentucky farmer Brandon Hunt.The American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents nearly six million farmers, warned the White House in a letter of a “shortfall in crops” unless policymakers prioritize the issue. Its policy recommendations include allowing for higher blends of ethanol in gasoline year-round, suspending tariffs on fertilizer, and loosening shipping restrictions to allow products to get to farmers faster. The White House announced a 60-day waiver for certain shipping rules on Wednesday.“Many of the producers have used up their equity, they’ve used up their borrowing power, and they simply have no cash to even put a respectable crop in this year on top of those high prices,” says Matt Frostic, a corn farmer in Michigan. “It’s a real red flag at this point.”The aluminum market has also been upended. Smelters in the Middle East—responsible for 9% of global production—have had trouble exporting their products. Alba, a major aluminum company in Bahrain, declared force majeure on contracts because of the war. Aluminum goes into cars, cans, and products like solar panels. Smelters take a long time to restart once capacity has been restricted. And as prices rise, those products are likely to get more expensive.The disruptions extend to even more unexpected places, including the supply chain for pharmaceuticals. The Middle East is an important link in the pharma supply chain, serving as a hub for drugs that are transported from factories in Asia to markets in Europe. Countries like the United Arab Emirates own “cold chain” warehouses to store the drugs mid-transit and help distribute them. With airports closed, pharmaceutical companies are relying on new routes, and some analysts have warned that the supply chain is at risk for critical medicines such as cancer drugs. “The logistics operation is much more complicated,” Tang says.The full impact of all this disruption has yet to hit. Ships tend to take about two weeks to get from the Middle East to Asia, and the war started 2½ weeks ago. The pace at which the U.S. and Israel can get the Strait of Hormuz unstuck will determine just how long these problems last. “Time is the enemy for the macro outlook,” says Joyce Chang, chair of global research at J.P. Morgan.There aren’t many easy ways for investors to profit off gummed-up supply chains. The stocks of companies that can replace disrupted commodities, like fertilizer maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CF\">CF Industries Holdings</a>, have already risen. Investors can hedge against more inflationary shocks—which are sure to come if the war drags on—through a broad-based commodities index fund like theInvesco DB Commodity Tracking.Regardless of the war’s resolution, analysts see it having lasting impacts on supply chains. Middle Eastern fossil-fuel producers are likely to build pipelines to divert products to the Red Sea from the Gulf. Asian countries may tilt toward alternate sources of supply like the U.S. And everyone will take a harder look at alternate-energy sources, from renewables to nuclear power, says Mills.“If this goes on a bit longer and the consequences all come home very clearly, I expect big changes,” Mills says. “There will be a lot more desire for self-sufficiency or reliable partners, diversification of partners, diversification of supply chains, alternative materials—obviously a lot less reliance on oil and gas, a lot more on renewable energy.”</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s Not Just Oil. The Iran War Sparked a Supply-Chain Mess That’s Hitting Tech, Medicine, and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s Not Just Oil. The Iran War Sparked a Supply-Chain Mess That’s Hitting Tech, Medicine, and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nDow Jones \n2026-03-20 17:30\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Oil tankers drifting aimlessly in the Persian Gulf may be the most visible economic symbol of the Iran war, but the damage is starting to spread to areas that aren’t as immediately obvious—American farmers, Asian chip makers, and European drugmakers, to name just a few. The war has sparked a supply-chain mess that’s disrupting the global economy and boosting inflation.The U.S. has seemed largely immune to the war’s impact so far, because of strong domestic production of energy and chemicals. Though gasoline prices have surged, there are no lines at gas stations in the U.S., as there were in the 1970s energy crisis. But on Tuesday, Moody’s economist Mark Zandi wrote that the war, along with a weakening U.S. labor market, has raised the odds of a recession in the next year to an “uncomfortably high 49%.”The rest of the world is in a tougher spot. Energy is the biggest problem in sheer dollar terms. The war has cut off access to about 20% of the world’s crude oil and another 20% of the liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that normally traverses the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. Oil prices are up about 50% since the war began.The impact on some other commodities, though, is starting to cause serious problems. Urea, a crucial fertilizer, and helium, which is needed to make microchips, are in short supply due to the war. Aluminum, a material used in everything from cans to cars, was already in a supply deficit before the war, and is now getting more scarce and expensive as output from the Middle East is curtailed. Some of these commodities have been in the direct line of fire—attacks on Qatar last week hit a processing plant that makes helium and sulfur as well as LNG, and are expected to take supplies offline for years, QatarEnergy’s CEO told Reuters.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/114528e2afdc07d6ece332b7553bcfb8\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"1214\"/>“Most people are just focusing on the energy market,” says Chris Tang, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles’ business school who focuses on supply chains. “But I think the impact is really far-reaching. People are just beginning to see it.”Just how this plays out for the global economy depends on how long the war lasts, say economists and supply-chain experts.A quick resolution—say, in three to five weeks—would push inflation higher but result in a relatively small hit to global gross domestic product. “You would have to take out your magnifying glass” to see the GDP impact, says Nathan Sheets, Citigroup’s chief global economist. In a more grinding and drawn-out scenario, the stakes rise. If Iran succeeds in blocking the strait for months, and oil stays above $100, Sheets thinks it could shave 0.9 percentage points off his expectations for 2.9% global GDP growth this year. J.P. Morgan sees a similar impact if the war drags on, with a 1.2 percentage point hit to GDP in the first half of the year. Inflation, too, would pick up significantly.Some areas face much more dire risks, and could be forced into recession or hyperinflation sooner. Asia and Europe, in that order, are most exposed, at least in the near term. A recession seems likely in Asia “if this drags on for a couple months,” says Jennifer Schuch-Page, a principal at The Asia Group. Historically, about 80% of the oil and natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia. Already, countries in the region are taking emergency measures to reduce the impact. China was the biggest buyer of Iran’s oil, but the world’s second-largest economy has been building reserves and diversifying in ways that cushion some of the blow better than its neighbors.India is facing a shortage of liquefied petroleum gas—used for cooking, heating, and powering factories—and has limited how much businesses are allowed to use to make sure consumers have enough. Some Indian restaurants have had to close for lack of cooking fuel. Sri Lanka is running so low that it declared that Wednesdays will be public holidays for the foreseeable future. Bangladesh is closing its universities early, and Pakistan is limiting fuel use by businesses. Emerging market stocks were leading global markets through February, but the war has “reversed that sharply,” notes Abhishek Gupta, executive director of research and development at MSCI.Richer Asian countries and major multinational businesses are also at risk. It isn’t just because of energy. Fitch Ratings warned this week that chip companies in Korea and Taiwan face looming shortages of helium —a gas used in semiconductor manufacturing. Helium cools so-called clean rooms where chips are made under extremely precise temperature and pressure conditions. Substituting another gas would entail completely reconfiguring the system, says Tang.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the world’s most important chip maker and arguably Nvidia’s most important partner. Asked about the helium shortage, the company toldBarron’sthat “we do not anticipate any significant impact at this time, and we will continue monitoring the situation closely.” Fitch sees the danger as more of “medium term” risk than an immediate supply crunch.For agricultural products, commodity shortages are more acute. The spring planting season is here, and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing. The Middle East accounts for more than a third of urea supplies and nearly as much ammonia and sulfur—chemicals that are hugely important to farmers. Nearly two-thirds of India’s nitrogen-based fertilizer comes through the Persian Gulf, according to Robin Mills, a fellow at Columbia University who is based in Dubai.Urea, a nitrogen-rich fertilizer that increases corn yields, is 32% more expensive since the start of the war. On top of that, farmers use a lot of diesel fuel, which now fetches over $5 a gallon at the pump, 38% higher than a month ago. American corn farmers have already dealt with three years of financial losses, and this year is setting up for a fourth, says Gretchen Kuck, an economist with the National Corn Growers Association. Farmers say they’re struggling to manage costs, which may lead to higher food prices in the months ahead. “We’re in a pretty tough spot today,” says Kentucky farmer Brandon Hunt.The American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents nearly six million farmers, warned the White House in a letter of a “shortfall in crops” unless policymakers prioritize the issue. Its policy recommendations include allowing for higher blends of ethanol in gasoline year-round, suspending tariffs on fertilizer, and loosening shipping restrictions to allow products to get to farmers faster. The White House announced a 60-day waiver for certain shipping rules on Wednesday.“Many of the producers have used up their equity, they’ve used up their borrowing power, and they simply have no cash to even put a respectable crop in this year on top of those high prices,” says Matt Frostic, a corn farmer in Michigan. “It’s a real red flag at this point.”The aluminum market has also been upended. Smelters in the Middle East—responsible for 9% of global production—have had trouble exporting their products. Alba, a major aluminum company in Bahrain, declared force majeure on contracts because of the war. Aluminum goes into cars, cans, and products like solar panels. Smelters take a long time to restart once capacity has been restricted. And as prices rise, those products are likely to get more expensive.The disruptions extend to even more unexpected places, including the supply chain for pharmaceuticals. The Middle East is an important link in the pharma supply chain, serving as a hub for drugs that are transported from factories in Asia to markets in Europe. Countries like the United Arab Emirates own “cold chain” warehouses to store the drugs mid-transit and help distribute them. With airports closed, pharmaceutical companies are relying on new routes, and some analysts have warned that the supply chain is at risk for critical medicines such as cancer drugs. “The logistics operation is much more complicated,” Tang says.The full impact of all this disruption has yet to hit. Ships tend to take about two weeks to get from the Middle East to Asia, and the war started 2½ weeks ago. The pace at which the U.S. and Israel can get the Strait of Hormuz unstuck will determine just how long these problems last. “Time is the enemy for the macro outlook,” says Joyce Chang, chair of global research at J.P. Morgan.There aren’t many easy ways for investors to profit off gummed-up supply chains. The stocks of companies that can replace disrupted commodities, like fertilizer maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CF\">CF Industries Holdings</a>, have already risen. Investors can hedge against more inflationary shocks—which are sure to come if the war drags on—through a broad-based commodities index fund like theInvesco DB Commodity Tracking.Regardless of the war’s resolution, analysts see it having lasting impacts on supply chains. Middle Eastern fossil-fuel producers are likely to build pipelines to divert products to the Red Sea from the Gulf. Asian countries may tilt toward alternate sources of supply like the U.S. And everyone will take a harder look at alternate-energy sources, from renewables to nuclear power, says Mills.“If this goes on a bit longer and the consequences all come home very clearly, I expect big changes,” Mills says. “There will be a lot more desire for self-sufficiency or reliable partners, diversification of partners, diversification of supply chains, alternative materials—obviously a lot less reliance on oil and gas, a lot more on renewable energy.”</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2097344357.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - 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The war has sparked a supply-chain mess that’s disrupting the global economy and boosting inflation.The U.S. has seemed largely immune to the war’s impact so far, because of strong domestic production of energy and chemicals. Though gasoline prices have surged, there are no lines at gas stations in the U.S., as there were in the 1970s energy crisis. But on Tuesday, Moody’s economist Mark Zandi wrote that the war, along with a weakening U.S. labor market, has raised the odds of a recession in the next year to an “uncomfortably high 49%.”The rest of the world is in a tougher spot. Energy is the biggest problem in sheer dollar terms. The war has cut off access to about 20% of the world’s crude oil and another 20% of the liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that normally traverses the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. Oil prices are up about 50% since the war began.The impact on some other commodities, though, is starting to cause serious problems. Urea, a crucial fertilizer, and helium, which is needed to make microchips, are in short supply due to the war. Aluminum, a material used in everything from cans to cars, was already in a supply deficit before the war, and is now getting more scarce and expensive as output from the Middle East is curtailed. Some of these commodities have been in the direct line of fire—attacks on Qatar last week hit a processing plant that makes helium and sulfur as well as LNG, and are expected to take supplies offline for years, QatarEnergy’s CEO told Reuters.“Most people are just focusing on the energy market,” says Chris Tang, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles’ business school who focuses on supply chains. “But I think the impact is really far-reaching. People are just beginning to see it.”Just how this plays out for the global economy depends on how long the war lasts, say economists and supply-chain experts.A quick resolution—say, in three to five weeks—would push inflation higher but result in a relatively small hit to global gross domestic product. “You would have to take out your magnifying glass” to see the GDP impact, says Nathan Sheets, Citigroup’s chief global economist. In a more grinding and drawn-out scenario, the stakes rise. If Iran succeeds in blocking the strait for months, and oil stays above $100, Sheets thinks it could shave 0.9 percentage points off his expectations for 2.9% global GDP growth this year. J.P. Morgan sees a similar impact if the war drags on, with a 1.2 percentage point hit to GDP in the first half of the year. Inflation, too, would pick up significantly.Some areas face much more dire risks, and could be forced into recession or hyperinflation sooner. Asia and Europe, in that order, are most exposed, at least in the near term. A recession seems likely in Asia “if this drags on for a couple months,” says Jennifer Schuch-Page, a principal at The Asia Group. Historically, about 80% of the oil and natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia. Already, countries in the region are taking emergency measures to reduce the impact. China was the biggest buyer of Iran’s oil, but the world’s second-largest economy has been building reserves and diversifying in ways that cushion some of the blow better than its neighbors.India is facing a shortage of liquefied petroleum gas—used for cooking, heating, and powering factories—and has limited how much businesses are allowed to use to make sure consumers have enough. Some Indian restaurants have had to close for lack of cooking fuel. Sri Lanka is running so low that it declared that Wednesdays will be public holidays for the foreseeable future. Bangladesh is closing its universities early, and Pakistan is limiting fuel use by businesses. Emerging market stocks were leading global markets through February, but the war has “reversed that sharply,” notes Abhishek Gupta, executive director of research and development at MSCI.Richer Asian countries and major multinational businesses are also at risk. It isn’t just because of energy. Fitch Ratings warned this week that chip companies in Korea and Taiwan face looming shortages of helium —a gas used in semiconductor manufacturing. Helium cools so-called clean rooms where chips are made under extremely precise temperature and pressure conditions. Substituting another gas would entail completely reconfiguring the system, says Tang.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the world’s most important chip maker and arguably Nvidia’s most important partner. Asked about the helium shortage, the company toldBarron’sthat “we do not anticipate any significant impact at this time, and we will continue monitoring the situation closely.” Fitch sees the danger as more of “medium term” risk than an immediate supply crunch.For agricultural products, commodity shortages are more acute. The spring planting season is here, and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing. The Middle East accounts for more than a third of urea supplies and nearly as much ammonia and sulfur—chemicals that are hugely important to farmers. Nearly two-thirds of India’s nitrogen-based fertilizer comes through the Persian Gulf, according to Robin Mills, a fellow at Columbia University who is based in Dubai.Urea, a nitrogen-rich fertilizer that increases corn yields, is 32% more expensive since the start of the war. On top of that, farmers use a lot of diesel fuel, which now fetches over $5 a gallon at the pump, 38% higher than a month ago. American corn farmers have already dealt with three years of financial losses, and this year is setting up for a fourth, says Gretchen Kuck, an economist with the National Corn Growers Association. Farmers say they’re struggling to manage costs, which may lead to higher food prices in the months ahead. “We’re in a pretty tough spot today,” says Kentucky farmer Brandon Hunt.The American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents nearly six million farmers, warned the White House in a letter of a “shortfall in crops” unless policymakers prioritize the issue. Its policy recommendations include allowing for higher blends of ethanol in gasoline year-round, suspending tariffs on fertilizer, and loosening shipping restrictions to allow products to get to farmers faster. The White House announced a 60-day waiver for certain shipping rules on Wednesday.“Many of the producers have used up their equity, they’ve used up their borrowing power, and they simply have no cash to even put a respectable crop in this year on top of those high prices,” says Matt Frostic, a corn farmer in Michigan. “It’s a real red flag at this point.”The aluminum market has also been upended. Smelters in the Middle East—responsible for 9% of global production—have had trouble exporting their products. Alba, a major aluminum company in Bahrain, declared force majeure on contracts because of the war. Aluminum goes into cars, cans, and products like solar panels. Smelters take a long time to restart once capacity has been restricted. And as prices rise, those products are likely to get more expensive.The disruptions extend to even more unexpected places, including the supply chain for pharmaceuticals. The Middle East is an important link in the pharma supply chain, serving as a hub for drugs that are transported from factories in Asia to markets in Europe. Countries like the United Arab Emirates own “cold chain” warehouses to store the drugs mid-transit and help distribute them. With airports closed, pharmaceutical companies are relying on new routes, and some analysts have warned that the supply chain is at risk for critical medicines such as cancer drugs. “The logistics operation is much more complicated,” Tang says.The full impact of all this disruption has yet to hit. Ships tend to take about two weeks to get from the Middle East to Asia, and the war started 2½ weeks ago. The pace at which the U.S. and Israel can get the Strait of Hormuz unstuck will determine just how long these problems last. “Time is the enemy for the macro outlook,” says Joyce Chang, chair of global research at J.P. Morgan.There aren’t many easy ways for investors to profit off gummed-up supply chains. The stocks of companies that can replace disrupted commodities, like fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings, have already risen. Investors can hedge against more inflationary shocks—which are sure to come if the war drags on—through a broad-based commodities index fund like theInvesco DB Commodity Tracking.Regardless of the war’s resolution, analysts see it having lasting impacts on supply chains. Middle Eastern fossil-fuel producers are likely to build pipelines to divert products to the Red Sea from the Gulf. Asian countries may tilt toward alternate sources of supply like the U.S. And everyone will take a harder look at alternate-energy sources, from renewables to nuclear power, says Mills.“If this goes on a bit longer and the consequences all come home very clearly, I expect big changes,” Mills says. “There will be a lot more desire for self-sufficiency or reliable partners, diversification of partners, diversification of supply chains, alternative materials—obviously a lot less reliance on oil and gas, a lot more on renewable energy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,"NVDA":2,".DJI":2,"CF":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":63,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":544972617891904,"commentId":"544972617891904","gmtCreate":1774061082593,"gmtModify":1774064303607,"authorId":3569809505691000,"author":{"id":3569809505691000,"idStr":"3569809505691000","authorId":3569809505691000,"name":"breAkdaWn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c3676c14de9bfcd6f45bcf7ba4ddb6c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.11","exceedPercentage":"80.84%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":544759080019840,"objectIdStr":"544759080019840","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"not iran war! US started it. US retreats, all is back to normal!","text":"not iran war! US started it. US retreats, all is back to normal!","html":"not iran war! US started it. US retreats, all is back to normal!","likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"subComments":[{"id":545251065844752,"commentId":"545251065844752","gmtCreate":1774128981843,"gmtModify":1774128989235,"authorId":3569809505691000,"author":{"id":3569809505691000,"idStr":"3569809505691000","authorId":3569809505691000,"name":"breAkdaWn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c3676c14de9bfcd6f45bcf7ba4ddb6c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches 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reset!?","disclaimerType":0},{"id":545250458927168,"commentId":"545250458927168","gmtCreate":1774128914879,"gmtModify":1774128920424,"authorId":3569809505691000,"author":{"id":3569809505691000,"idStr":"3569809505691000","authorId":3569809505691000,"name":"breAkdaWn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c3676c14de9bfcd6f45bcf7ba4ddb6c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches 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steel,","disclaimerType":0},{"id":545045266531320,"commentId":"545045266531320","gmtCreate":1774078737696,"gmtModify":1774078744809,"authorId":4142648172044492,"author":{"id":4142648172044492,"idStr":"4142648172044492","authorId":4142648172044492,"name":"ZhongRenChun","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/626c9b2d6a6580aa7acb2f7bf1552413","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577-1","templateUuid":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577","name":"Emerging Contributor","description":"Contributors who received Editor's Pick for the 1st time","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.12","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/306aa047bc14b6942cda1aed925cf8c3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":544759080019840,"objectIdStr":"544759080019840","type":1,"supId":544972617891904,"supIdStr":"544972617891904","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"and who is going to spend billions on rebuilding oil infrastructure in a war zone, where the strait of hormuz can be closed at any time? war can break out at anytime. what fool would invest their money in the GCC?&nbsp; People are fleeing the GCC by the millions. even 10 years will not recover. Venezuela","text":"and who is going to spend billions on rebuilding oil infrastructure in a war zone, where the strait of hormuz can be closed at any time? war can break out at anytime. what fool would invest their money in the GCC?&nbsp; People are fleeing the GCC by the millions. even 10 years will not recover. Venezuela","html":"and who is going to spend billions on rebuilding oil infrastructure in a war zone, where the strait of hormuz can be closed at any time? war can break out at anytime. what fool would invest their money in the GCC?&nbsp; People are fleeing the GCC by the millions. even 10 years will not recover. Venezuela","disclaimerType":0},{"id":545043748562808,"commentId":"545043748562808","gmtCreate":1774078403895,"gmtModify":1774078523799,"authorId":4142648172044492,"author":{"id":4142648172044492,"idStr":"4142648172044492","authorId":4142648172044492,"name":"ZhongRenChun","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/626c9b2d6a6580aa7acb2f7bf1552413","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577-1","templateUuid":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577","name":"Emerging Contributor","description":"Contributors who received Editor's Pick for the 1st time","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.12","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/306aa047bc14b6942cda1aed925cf8c3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":544759080019840,"objectIdStr":"544759080019840","type":1,"supId":544972617891904,"supIdStr":"544972617891904","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"nonsense. do you really think Iran is the last war over oil?&nbsp; they just invaded Venezuela in February.&nbsp; Iran in march. and april will be another country.&nbsp; the oil wars will never end until we are all driving EV!&nbsp; and it will take at least a decade to rebuild all the damages to the oil industry.&nbsp;","text":"nonsense. do you really think Iran is the last war over oil?&nbsp; they just invaded Venezuela in February.&nbsp; Iran in march. and april will be another country.&nbsp; the oil wars will never end until we are all driving EV!&nbsp; and it will take at least a decade to rebuild all the damages to the oil industry.&nbsp;","html":"nonsense. do you really think Iran is the last war over oil?&nbsp; they just invaded Venezuela in February.&nbsp; Iran in march. and april will be another country.&nbsp; the oil wars will never end until we are all driving EV!&nbsp; and it will take at least a decade to rebuild all the damages to the oil industry.&nbsp;","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}