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03-21 10:51

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U.S. Weekly Review | Iran War Reignites Rate Hike Fears – S&P 500 Hits "Oversold" Levels

Hormuz stays closed, crude tops $110, and money markets are now pricing rate hikes. Here's how the Iran war reshaped Wall Street's outlook in one week.

U.S. Weekly Review | Iran War Reignites Rate Hike Fears – S&P 500 Hits "Oversold" Levels

# Market Impact of Middle East Conflict and Inflation Concerns on Global Economy in March 2026

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Dow industrials dropped over 200 points, reflecting an 8% decline from record highs. The conflict affected energy prices, prompting central banks to reconsider interest rate strategies. Precious metals and aluminum prices fluctuated amid inflation expectations and demand shifts. Economic indicators showed a slowdown, with mixed manufacturing and employment data. The World Trade Organization warned of slower trade growth if the conflict persists, highlighting broad economic uncertainty and market instability."}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Great ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Great ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544974140891208","repostId":2621751123,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621751123","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1774058400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2621751123?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-03-21 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Weekly Review | Iran War Reignites Rate Hike Fears – S&P 500 Hits \"Oversold\" Levels","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621751123","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Hormuz stays closed, crude tops $110, and money markets are now pricing rate hikes. Here's how the Iran war reshaped Wall Street's outlook in one week.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A single uncomfortable question defined the week on Wall Street: Has the Iran war permanently reset the inflation and interest rate outlook for 2026?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">By Friday, markets had an answer — and it wasn’t reassuring.</p><p>The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Brent crude ended the week above $110 per barrel.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But the crisis has now moved from Hormuz to the gas station: U.S. retail diesel crossed $5 per gallon — up 35% from $3.69 just a month ago, and closing in near the 2022 record. Gasoline is approaching $4.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Consumers have noticed. So have money markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Traders are now pricing in a scenario that felt unthinkable three weeks ago: rate hikes.</p><p>The Federal Reserve — which President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> has spent his entire second term trying to push toward cuts — may now be forced to move in the opposite direction.</p><h2 id=\"id_3911157274\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Oil Shock Triggers Inflation Warnings</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The University of Michigan documented a dramatic shift in inflation expectations in the nine days following the start of U.S. military operations: expectations for gas price increases over the next year surged to 42.6%, from just 10% beforehand.</p><p>Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.3% to 3.5%, while long-run expectations rose from 3.1% to 3.3% — an early signal that the energy shock may be reshaping how Americans think about prices more broadly.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Prediction markets have moved sharply, too.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Traders now assign a coin-flip chance that annual March inflation will exceed 3.4% — compared to 2.4% in February.</p><p>A one-percentage-point jump in annual inflation over a single month is historically rare, occurring only a handful of times in modern history, almost always around major energy crises.</p><p>The Federal Reserve took notice at its meeting this week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In its updated Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers raised their inflation forecasts, with Chair <strong>Jerome Powell </strong>acknowledging that energy-driven price pressures represent a meaningful upside risk to the inflation outlook.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed held rates steady but pointedly declined to rule out future increases.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets interpreted the message quickly and harshly. By Friday, money markets were pricing a better-than-even chance the Fed raises rates by October.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">U.S. short-term Treasury yields spiked toward 4%, on pace for their biggest monthly jump since February 2023.</p><p>The result was a brutal week for rate-sensitive assets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Gold, which had surged through last year on expectations of falling rates, tumbled 9.8% by midday Friday — its worst weekly performance since 1983.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silver and gold mining stocks fell sharply in sympathy.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all closed below their 200-day moving averages at the end of the week, for the first time since March 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The S&amp;P 500’s 14-day RSI dropped below 30 for the first time since the April 2025 tariff shock — crossing into oversold territory as selling pressure showed no sign of letting up.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every major sector finished in the red, save one: the <strong>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund </strong>(NYSE:XLE), which remains the sole beneficiary of the crisis.</p><h2 id=\"id_1639101647\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Chart of The Week: S&amp;P 500 Closes Below 200-day Average, Hits ‘Oversold’ RSI</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b7909accf906c326f6ea9c2b3f38e22f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"568\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Weekly Review | Iran War Reignites Rate Hike Fears – S&P 500 Hits \"Oversold\" Levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-21 10:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A single uncomfortable question defined the week on Wall Street: Has the Iran war permanently reset the inflation and interest rate outlook for 2026?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">By Friday, markets had an answer — and it wasn’t reassuring.</p><p>The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Brent crude ended the week above $110 per barrel.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But the crisis has now moved from Hormuz to the gas station: U.S. retail diesel crossed $5 per gallon — up 35% from $3.69 just a month ago, and closing in near the 2022 record. Gasoline is approaching $4.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Consumers have noticed. So have money markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Traders are now pricing in a scenario that felt unthinkable three weeks ago: rate hikes.</p><p>The Federal Reserve — which President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> has spent his entire second term trying to push toward cuts — may now be forced to move in the opposite direction.</p><h2 id=\"id_3911157274\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Oil Shock Triggers Inflation Warnings</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The University of Michigan documented a dramatic shift in inflation expectations in the nine days following the start of U.S. military operations: expectations for gas price increases over the next year surged to 42.6%, from just 10% beforehand.</p><p>Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.3% to 3.5%, while long-run expectations rose from 3.1% to 3.3% — an early signal that the energy shock may be reshaping how Americans think about prices more broadly.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Prediction markets have moved sharply, too.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Traders now assign a coin-flip chance that annual March inflation will exceed 3.4% — compared to 2.4% in February.</p><p>A one-percentage-point jump in annual inflation over a single month is historically rare, occurring only a handful of times in modern history, almost always around major energy crises.</p><p>The Federal Reserve took notice at its meeting this week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In its updated Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers raised their inflation forecasts, with Chair <strong>Jerome Powell </strong>acknowledging that energy-driven price pressures represent a meaningful upside risk to the inflation outlook.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed held rates steady but pointedly declined to rule out future increases.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets interpreted the message quickly and harshly. By Friday, money markets were pricing a better-than-even chance the Fed raises rates by October.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">U.S. short-term Treasury yields spiked toward 4%, on pace for their biggest monthly jump since February 2023.</p><p>The result was a brutal week for rate-sensitive assets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Gold, which had surged through last year on expectations of falling rates, tumbled 9.8% by midday Friday — its worst weekly performance since 1983.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silver and gold mining stocks fell sharply in sympathy.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all closed below their 200-day moving averages at the end of the week, for the first time since March 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The S&amp;P 500’s 14-day RSI dropped below 30 for the first time since the April 2025 tariff shock — crossing into oversold territory as selling pressure showed no sign of letting up.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every major sector finished in the red, save one: the <strong>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund </strong>(NYSE:XLE), which remains the sole beneficiary of the crisis.</p><h2 id=\"id_1639101647\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Chart of The Week: S&amp;P 500 Closes Below 200-day Average, Hits ‘Oversold’ RSI</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b7909accf906c326f6ea9c2b3f38e22f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"568\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPLV":"Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","JEPI":"JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SPMO":"Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","RSP":"平均加权指数ETF-Rydex S&P","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","VTV":"Vanguard Value ETF","SPYV":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF","GPIX":"GOLDMAN SACHS S&P 500 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","BMAY":"Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","XDTE":"Roundhill S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF","IVOO":"Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","BK4581":"高盛持仓","XYLD":"Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPYG":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/market-summary/26/03/51391526/iran-war-inflation-rate-hikes-wall-street-week-review","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621751123","content_text":"A single uncomfortable question defined the week on Wall Street: Has the Iran war permanently reset the inflation and interest rate outlook for 2026?By Friday, markets had an answer — and it wasn’t reassuring.The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Brent crude ended the week above $110 per barrel.But the crisis has now moved from Hormuz to the gas station: U.S. retail diesel crossed $5 per gallon — up 35% from $3.69 just a month ago, and closing in near the 2022 record. Gasoline is approaching $4.Consumers have noticed. So have money markets.Traders are now pricing in a scenario that felt unthinkable three weeks ago: rate hikes.The Federal Reserve — which President Donald Trump has spent his entire second term trying to push toward cuts — may now be forced to move in the opposite direction.Oil Shock Triggers Inflation WarningsThe University of Michigan documented a dramatic shift in inflation expectations in the nine days following the start of U.S. military operations: expectations for gas price increases over the next year surged to 42.6%, from just 10% beforehand.Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.3% to 3.5%, while long-run expectations rose from 3.1% to 3.3% — an early signal that the energy shock may be reshaping how Americans think about prices more broadly.Prediction markets have moved sharply, too.Traders now assign a coin-flip chance that annual March inflation will exceed 3.4% — compared to 2.4% in February.A one-percentage-point jump in annual inflation over a single month is historically rare, occurring only a handful of times in modern history, almost always around major energy crises.The Federal Reserve took notice at its meeting this week.In its updated Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers raised their inflation forecasts, with Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging that energy-driven price pressures represent a meaningful upside risk to the inflation outlook.The Fed held rates steady but pointedly declined to rule out future increases.Markets interpreted the message quickly and harshly. By Friday, money markets were pricing a better-than-even chance the Fed raises rates by October.U.S. short-term Treasury yields spiked toward 4%, on pace for their biggest monthly jump since February 2023.The result was a brutal week for rate-sensitive assets.Gold, which had surged through last year on expectations of falling rates, tumbled 9.8% by midday Friday — its worst weekly performance since 1983.Silver and gold mining stocks fell sharply in sympathy.The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all closed below their 200-day moving averages at the end of the week, for the first time since March 2025.The S&P 500’s 14-day RSI dropped below 30 for the first time since the April 2025 tariff shock — crossing into oversold territory as selling pressure showed no sign of letting up.Every major sector finished in the red, save one: the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE), which remains the sole beneficiary of the crisis.Chart of The Week: S&P 500 Closes Below 200-day Average, Hits ‘Oversold’ RSI","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IVW":0.6,"SPY":1.91,"RSP":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVOO":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,".SPX":2,"OEX":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"XYLD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"VTI":0.6,".IXIC":2,"SPXL":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"VTV":0.6,".DJI":2,"HIBL":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"JEPI":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPMO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SPYG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}