I have been watching TSLA closely, and it’s tough to see the stock retreat about 25% since it peaked near the 498 level back in December. The past few earnings reports definitely didn't provide the spark we were looking for, especially since Tesla’s global EV deliveries actually declined by roughly 8.6% in 2025—marking the second consecutive year of contracting sales as competition from rivals like BYD continues to heat up. It feels like the market is currently struggling to price in the core auto business versus the long-term AI narrative. However, there is a lot of chatter about a potential SpaceX IPO rumored for mid-2026 at a massive $1.5 trillion valuation, which could create a "Musk premium" and potentially help elevate the share price back to higher ground if investors view the companies as a converging ecosystem. I'm keeping a close eye on the 340 to 350 range as a potential floor where the 200-day EMA sits, hoping we can find some stability there before the next leg up.
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