1. Why markets suddenly rallied
The rally you see now is not because the economy improved.
It is because of temporary de-escalation hopes.
Key points from the news:
Markets rallied when military strikes were delayed
Oil dropped temporarily
Investors hoped war may de-escalate
But the rally faded quickly because attacks continued
Analysts say markets will remain volatile and on edge
Overall conclusion from current news:
> The rally is a relief rally, not a confirmed bull run.
Markets are basically trading war headlines day by day now.
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2. Is this like last April rally?
Not exactly. The macro environment is different.
Last April rally environment
Rate cuts expected
Oil low
Inflation falling
Liquidity improving
Bullish macro
Now environment
Oil above $100
Inflation rising again
Rate cuts cancelled
Dollar strong
War risk
Bond yields rising
This environment is much more dangerous for equities than last April.
So a rally may happen, but probably choppy, not straight up.
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3. The market is currently trading 3 variables
Everything now depends on these 3 things:
Variable If happens Market
War de-escalation Oil falls Stocks rally
Strait of Hormuz reopened Inflation drops Big rally
War escalates / oil spike Inflation rises Market selloff
Fed hikes / no cuts Liquidity tight Market down
So the market direction now is oil price driven.
Very important relationship now:
> Oil up → Inflation up → Rates up → Stocks down → Gold down
Oil down → Inflation down → Rates down → Stocks up → Gold up
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4. Is the sell-off over?
Most analysts say not yet.
Markets are still:
Below February highs
Very sensitive to war headlines
Inflation risk rising
Growth slowing (Europe almost stagnating already)
One analyst said:
> Markets may stay on edge and volatile for some time.
So likely scenario:
Not crash, not bull market
Instead → volatile range market
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5. My macro scenario outlook
I will give you probability view (my macro interpretation):
Scenario Probability Market
War de-escalates 35% Big rally
War continues but contained 45% Sideways volatile
War escalates / Hormuz closed 20% Big selloff
Most likely scenario now:
> Sideways volatile market with sharp rallies and sharp drops
So yes, rallies will happen.
But they may be bear market rallies, not new bull run yet.
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6. What I am watching (very important indicators)
If you want to predict next big move, watch:
1. Brent oil price
2. US 10Y yield
3. USD index
4. Strait of Hormuz news
5. Fed rate expectations
These matter more than earnings now.
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Final macro view (important)
My honest view:
The selloff probably not fully over
But a massive crash also unlikely unless oil spikes to $130+
Expect violent rallies and violent drops
Markets now trading geopolitics, not fundamentals
If war de-escalates → huge rally
If war escalates → global selloff + stagflation risk
Simple summary:
> Short term: volatile
Medium term: depends on oil
Long term: still bullish unless stagflation
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