Rubbish analysis. No correlati

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Kipbana
04-03 22:04

Rubbish analysis. No correlation between big rallies and bear market. Trying to hard to create correlation between rallies and market direction. No correlation and no causation at all.

The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor

Strong one-day rallies are far more common in weak markets.

The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor

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No correlation between big rallies and bear market. Trying to hard to create correlation between rallies and market direction. No correlation and no causation at all.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Rubbish analysis. No correlation between big rallies and bear market. Trying to hard to create correlation between rallies and market direction. No correlation and no causation at all.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"Rubbish analysis. No correlation between big rallies and bear market. Trying to hard to create correlation between rallies and market direction. No correlation and no causation at all.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/549699665724016","repostId":2624504747,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2624504747","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1775224800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2624504747?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-03 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624504747","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Strong one-day rallies are far more common in weak markets.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the stock market’s huge rally on March 31, plus another up day on April 1, discussing a correction might seem overly pessimistic. But in fact, strong single-day rallies like the one earlier this week are far more common in weak markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the stock market’s recent decline turns out to be no worse than a garden-variety correction, the S&amp;P 500 will hit bottom on May 21 around the 6,000 level.</p><p>That’s assuming the length and depth of any correction will match the average of all S&amp;P 500 corrections since 1928. On that assumption, after hitting its late May bottom, the stock market will rebound — and by Oct. 12, it should surpass its Jan. 27, 2026, all-time closing high.</p><p>These specific timelines are illustrated in the chart below, which reflects the Nasdaq Composite since its creation in 1971. The red line — at the 24.8% mark — shows the percentage of days since then that occurred during one of the major bear markets in the bull/bear calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Notice that a far higher percentage of big one-day rallies occurred during one of those bear markets — in the 60% to 80% range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/27b90d6ca06f877abea1ef79d6690d37\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"454\"/></p><p>Your perspective in this discussion hinges on whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader. For long-term investors, corrections are nothing more than a cost of doing business. Having to wait six months until the market is back at all-time-high territory (which will be the case if the correction is average) is a small price to fully participate in the stock market’s long-term uptrend.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Short-term traders will lament that, even if this correction is no worse than average, the stock market will shed 10% and you’ll have to wait until October to be made whole again.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regardless of your perspective, you should know that there is significant variation in the sample on either side of this historical average. As you can see below, S&amp;P 500 corrections over the past century have been as short as 13 days and as long as 531 days (18 months). Subsequent recoveries to new all-time highs have been as quick as 22 days and as slow as 589 days (19 months).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c284d23115cd937ae431b9c3f670a9b6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"113\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This discussion so far has assumed that U.S. market weakness will bring no worse than a typical correction — a decline of 10% to 20%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If it is worse and this is actually the start of a bear market — and its length and loss are equal to the average over the past century — the S&amp;P 500 will bottom nine months from now, on Jan. 2, 2027, at 4,429, for a loss of about 30%. And the market’s subsequent recovery won’t surpass the Jan. 27, 2026 record high until April 2, 2031.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That is definitely a scarier prospect. Fortunately, bear markets are less frequent than corrections. Of the greater-than-10% declines in the S&amp;P 500 since 1928, 39% represented the start of a bear market. So there may be some solace in knowing that, based on these numbers alone, a bear market probably isn’t beginning.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-03 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the stock market’s huge rally on March 31, plus another up day on April 1, discussing a correction might seem overly pessimistic. But in fact, strong single-day rallies like the one earlier this week are far more common in weak markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the stock market’s recent decline turns out to be no worse than a garden-variety correction, the S&amp;P 500 will hit bottom on May 21 around the 6,000 level.</p><p>That’s assuming the length and depth of any correction will match the average of all S&amp;P 500 corrections since 1928. On that assumption, after hitting its late May bottom, the stock market will rebound — and by Oct. 12, it should surpass its Jan. 27, 2026, all-time closing high.</p><p>These specific timelines are illustrated in the chart below, which reflects the Nasdaq Composite since its creation in 1971. The red line — at the 24.8% mark — shows the percentage of days since then that occurred during one of the major bear markets in the bull/bear calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Notice that a far higher percentage of big one-day rallies occurred during one of those bear markets — in the 60% to 80% range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/27b90d6ca06f877abea1ef79d6690d37\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"454\"/></p><p>Your perspective in this discussion hinges on whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader. For long-term investors, corrections are nothing more than a cost of doing business. Having to wait six months until the market is back at all-time-high territory (which will be the case if the correction is average) is a small price to fully participate in the stock market’s long-term uptrend.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Short-term traders will lament that, even if this correction is no worse than average, the stock market will shed 10% and you’ll have to wait until October to be made whole again.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regardless of your perspective, you should know that there is significant variation in the sample on either side of this historical average. As you can see below, S&amp;P 500 corrections over the past century have been as short as 13 days and as long as 531 days (18 months). Subsequent recoveries to new all-time highs have been as quick as 22 days and as slow as 589 days (19 months).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c284d23115cd937ae431b9c3f670a9b6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"113\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This discussion so far has assumed that U.S. market weakness will bring no worse than a typical correction — a decline of 10% to 20%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If it is worse and this is actually the start of a bear market — and its length and loss are equal to the average over the past century — the S&amp;P 500 will bottom nine months from now, on Jan. 2, 2027, at 4,429, for a loss of about 30%. And the market’s subsequent recovery won’t surpass the Jan. 27, 2026 record high until April 2, 2031.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That is definitely a scarier prospect. Fortunately, bear markets are less frequent than corrections. Of the greater-than-10% declines in the S&amp;P 500 since 1928, 39% represented the start of a bear market. So there may be some solace in knowing that, based on these numbers alone, a bear market probably isn’t beginning.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624504747","content_text":"After the stock market’s huge rally on March 31, plus another up day on April 1, discussing a correction might seem overly pessimistic. But in fact, strong single-day rallies like the one earlier this week are far more common in weak markets.If the stock market’s recent decline turns out to be no worse than a garden-variety correction, the S&P 500 will hit bottom on May 21 around the 6,000 level.That’s assuming the length and depth of any correction will match the average of all S&P 500 corrections since 1928. On that assumption, after hitting its late May bottom, the stock market will rebound — and by Oct. 12, it should surpass its Jan. 27, 2026, all-time closing high.These specific timelines are illustrated in the chart below, which reflects the Nasdaq Composite since its creation in 1971. The red line — at the 24.8% mark — shows the percentage of days since then that occurred during one of the major bear markets in the bull/bear calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Notice that a far higher percentage of big one-day rallies occurred during one of those bear markets — in the 60% to 80% range.Your perspective in this discussion hinges on whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader. For long-term investors, corrections are nothing more than a cost of doing business. Having to wait six months until the market is back at all-time-high territory (which will be the case if the correction is average) is a small price to fully participate in the stock market’s long-term uptrend.Short-term traders will lament that, even if this correction is no worse than average, the stock market will shed 10% and you’ll have to wait until October to be made whole again.Regardless of your perspective, you should know that there is significant variation in the sample on either side of this historical average. As you can see below, S&P 500 corrections over the past century have been as short as 13 days and as long as 531 days (18 months). Subsequent recoveries to new all-time highs have been as quick as 22 days and as slow as 589 days (19 months).This discussion so far has assumed that U.S. market weakness will bring no worse than a typical correction — a decline of 10% to 20%.If it is worse and this is actually the start of a bear market — and its length and loss are equal to the average over the past century — the S&P 500 will bottom nine months from now, on Jan. 2, 2027, at 4,429, for a loss of about 30%. And the market’s subsequent recovery won’t surpass the Jan. 27, 2026 record high until April 2, 2031.That is definitely a scarier prospect. Fortunately, bear markets are less frequent than corrections. Of the greater-than-10% declines in the S&P 500 since 1928, 39% represented the start of a bear market. 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