TMDX'S VALUATION MODEL
MY $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ VALUATION MODEL
PRICE TARGET: $216 --> $220
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +116% ✅
ASSUMPTIONS:
LTM Revenue: $0.605B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 23% --> 22%
2030 Profit Margin: 24%
2030 PE Ratio: 40
Shares outstanding: 0.0409B
Shares dilution: 2%/year
VALUATION:
Q4 2030 $TMDX SHARE PRICE =
0.605 * (1.22)^5 * 0.24 * 40 /
[0.0409 * (1.02)^5] = 348$
You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Transmedics I want to use 12%
ACTUAL PRICE: $102
FAIR VALUE: $197
PRICE TARGET (1Y): $220
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +116%
EXPECTED RETURNS: 27.8%/year
DIVIDEND YIELD: -
𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.
𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.
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