To The Moon

Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds (managing close to $100 billion), has historically been accessible only to institutional and ultra-high-net-worth investors. Its founder, Ray Dalio, is widely respected, and his book Principles is often regarded as essential reading among investors.

In March 2025, Bridgewater partnered with State Street to launch the $SPDR BRIDGEWATER ALL WEATHER ETF(ALLW)$  — a retail-accessible version of its well-known All Weather strategy.

ALLW currently manages approximately $1.2 billion in assets, with an expense ratio of 0.85%. Since its listing on March 6, 2025, the ETF has delivered a total return of 21.86% (including dividends).

Strategy and Portfolio

ALLW adopts Bridgewater’s risk parity (All Weather) approach, which aims to balance risk across asset classes rather than relying on macroeconomic forecasts.

Key holdings include:

· SSGA U.S. Government Money Market Fund — 15.3% 

· U.S. 10-year Treasuries — 11% 

· Euro-denominated bonds — 8.4% 

· $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ — 6.7% 

· Additional exposure to gold, Treasury futures, and $SPDR S&P China ETF(GXC)$

The strategy seeks to maintain relatively equal risk contributions from equities, bonds (both nominal and inflation-linked), and commodities, enabling more stable performance across economic cycles.

Performance Overview

From March 6, 2025 to April 7, 2026:

· ALLW price return: +16.46% 

· QQQ: +20.56%  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

· SPY: +15.11%  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

Including dividends:

· ALLW: +21.86% 

· QQQ: +21.32% 

· SPY: +16.78% 

Overall, ALLW has outperformed SPY and delivered a total return broadly in line with, and slightly exceeding, QQQ.

Historical Context

Despite strong recent performance, ALLW’s track record remains limited.

Bridgewater’s flagship Pure Alpha II fund:

· Gained 26.4% in the first three quarters of last year (best in a decade)

· However, delivered less than 3% annualized returns from 2012–2024 

· Assets declined to $92 billion in 2024, from nearly $140 billion in early 2023 

This underperformance has been largely attributed to prolonged low interest rates, which reduced market volatility — a key driver of returns for macro strategies.

An institutional example further illustrates this:

· Texas Teachers Retirement System invested $250 million (2012) in Bridgewater

· Achieved ~8.7% annualized returns, below QQQ’s ~18% over the same period

Strong Performance in China

Bridgewater has delivered notably stronger results in China:

· All Weather Plus (2024): +35%
(vs ~11% average for domestic multi-asset funds)

· Onshore China fund:

o +18% in the first 7 months of 2025 

o ~20% annualized return since 2021 

o Maximum drawdown: 6.6% 

o China major benchmark indices: -5.2% annualized return since 2021 

· Onshore assets exceeded RMB 60 billion by Q3 2025 

Key Consideration: Leadership Transition

In August 2025, Ray Dalio stepped down, sold his remaining stake, and resigned from the board.

This raises a key question for investors: whether Bridgewater can sustain its performance without its founder.