Crude crashed on ceasefire headlines, but I don’t think the energy risk premium is fully gone yet.
Yes, the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp oil selloff and a relief rally in equities. But the market is still dealing with a fragile truce, unresolved Hormuz access, and continued fighting linked to Lebanon, so this is not the same as a clean return to normal. Reuters says oil rebounded back toward $98–99 as traders questioned whether the ceasefire would really hold.
My take: the easy “panic spike” may be gone, but the structural uncertainty is still here. Shipping through Hormuz remains limited, insurance costs are still high, and peace talks look cautious rather than settled. That means energy names may stay volatile instead of simply collapsing back to pre-war pricing.
Simple view:
Ceasefire = risk premium down
Fragile ceasefire + Hormuz uncertainty = risk premium not dead
So I’d be careful calling this the end of the energy story. It looks more like a reset from extreme fear to uncertain normalisation.
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