SpaceX going public would drop a massive mega-cap space stock into the market, which is easily the biggest aerospace, defense, or satellite name we've ever seen. The initial float (the shares actually available to trade right away) is expected to be pretty small at first, maybe just 3 to 5% of the company. Even so, that could mean tens of billions in tradable value depending on the final size. Still, it would completely dwarf the current public space sector to a ridiculous degree.
Right now, the whole listed space industry including $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ , $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ , $Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$ , $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$ , RDW, and the rest sits at a combined market cap around $90 to 100 billion range. A $1.75 trillion SpaceX would suddenly make the entire space theme feel legit to mainstream investors, kind of like how Tesla's run turned electric vehicles into a real Wall Street story.
As for Rocket Lab (RKLB), it's not really a direct existential threat but more of a mixed bag that leans net positive in the near to medium term, even if real competition exists down the road.
Why it's not mainly a threat:
1) Different playing fields: Rocket Lab is all about small-to-medium lift launches. Its Electron rocket gives customers dedicated rides for smaller satellites, and the upcoming Neutron aims at bigger payloads. On top of that, they're vertically integrated, from building spacecraft, components, the Photon satellite bus, and even adding laser comms through the Mynaric deal. SpaceX owns the heavy-lift game with Falcon 9/Heavy and Starship dreams. RKLB often wins business from clients who need specific orbits, quicker turnaround, or rideshare options that Falcon doesn't always prioritize.
2) Niche strength: Rocket Lab has a solid and growing backlog (around $1.85 billion lately), plenty of NASA and DoD contracts, and real momentum with frequent launches and Neutron progress. It's one of the few true "full-stack" space companies you can actually buy on the public market.
As the saying goes "A rising tide floats all boats", SpaceX IPO may bring more liquidity into the Space Sector than snuffing out companies that exist and ultimately benefit RKLB.
Modify on 2026-04-13 21:33
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