To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ shares closed at $196.51 on Tuesday, up 3.8%. Recent activity in the options market shows a surge in block trades, concentrated in contracts expiring in June 2026. Institutional investors have constructed large-scale bear call spreads, signaling caution to bearish expectations for near-term upside into June. At the same time, traders are selling far-dated, deeply out-of-the-money puts to collect premium, reflecting confidence that the stock will hold above key support levels through late 2028.

Options Metrics Analysis

Implied Volatility (IV) and Volume Overview

Implied Volatility Snapshot

• Current IV: 37.31% (as of April 15, 2026)

• IV Percentile: 7.60%

• IV/HV Ratio: 1.09

Analysis:
With an IV percentile of just 7.60%, implied volatility sits near the bottom of its one-year range, indicating subdued expectations for future price swings. Options are therefore relatively inexpensive. This environment favors buyers seeking low entry costs, while sellers face more limited premium income.

Put/Call Volume Ratio

• Put/Call Ratio: 2.43

Elevated put/call volume suggests a defensive positioning bias, although block trade data indicates a mix of directional and volatility strategies.

Notable Open Interest (OI)

From the April 24, 2026 expiry:

• $190 Call: OI 28,550

• $185 Call: OI 20,230

• $170 Put: OI 14,289

Source: Option charts

Block Trade Highlights

1. Large-Scale Bear Call Spread Structures

Trade Timestamp: April 15, 2026, 17:06:42

Structure:

• Sold 32,000 June 18, 2026 $180 Calls at $20.55 (~$65.76M)

• Bought 48,000 May 29, 2026 $200 Calls at $7.40 (~$35.52M)

• Sold 48,000 May 29, 2026 $225 Calls at $1.52 (~$7.30M)

$NVDA Diagonal Spread 260529/260618 200.0C/180.0C$

Strategy Insight:
This modified, non-standard bear call spread suggests expectations of a modest pullback. The large sale of $180 calls captures premium, while long $200 calls provide protection against sharp upside moves in the near term.

Market Bias: Bearish to neutral in the short term.

Trade Timestamp: April 15, 2026, 17:12:16

Structure:

• Bought 10,000 June 18, 2026 $210 Calls at $6.91 (~$6.91M)

• Sold 5,000 June 18, 2026 $195 Calls at $13.13 (~$6.57M)

$NVDA 20260618 210.0 CALL$

$NVDA 20260618 195.0 CALL$

Strategy Insight:
This resembles a ratio call spread. The positioning implies expectations for the stock to trade within the $195–$210 range by mid-June, with premium collected from short $195 calls and upside protection via additional $210 calls.

Market Bias: Range-bound with capped upside.

2. Long-Dated Positioning: Selling Deep Out-of-the-Money Puts

Trade Timestamp: April 15, 2026, 17:12:16

Structure:

• Sold 2,020 December 15, 2028 $350 Puts at $159.71 (~$32.26M)

• Sold 5,000 December 15, 2028 $195 Puts at $46.16 (~$23.08M)

$NVDA 20281215 195.0 PUT$

Strategy Insight:
This trade expresses strong long-term conviction. By selling long-dated puts, traders are effectively betting that Nvidia shares will remain above $195 over the next 2.5 years, while collecting substantial time premium.

Market Bias: Strongly bullish over the long term.

Directional Positioning Summary

• Short Term (1–2 months): Cautious to bearish, with key positioning suggesting resistance around $180 into mid-June.

• Medium Term (~2 months): Mixed but range-focused, with expectations centered in the $195–$210 band.

• Long Term (2.5 years): Highly bullish, with confidence that structural support remains well above current levels.

Key Data Highlights

• Largest Trade Value: Sale of June 2026 $180 Calls (~$65.76M)

• Highest Volume: May 2026 $200/$225 Calls (48,000 contracts each)

• Long-Dated Premium Selling: More than $55M in total put-selling activity

• Volatility Backdrop: IV percentile at just 7.60%, indicating historically low volatility

Conclusion

The options market in NVIDIA reflects a layered and nuanced positioning structure. Institutional flows point to short-term caution expressed via spread strategies, combined with long-term bullish conviction through aggressive put selling.

Investors should closely monitor price action within the $180–$210 range, as well as any rebound in implied volatility from current depressed levels.

Strategy Takeaway

In a low-volatility environment, premium-selling strategies may appeal to income-focused traders. Writing out-of-the-money options (e.g., puts below $180 or calls above $210) can generate yield, while defined-risk spreads—such as bear call spreads or bull put spreads—offer a more conservative alternative for managing margin and tail risk.