This week - what will central banks decide amid the war?
Tues: the Bank of Japan is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%. While some in the market see a small chance of a hike given the sharp rise in energy prices, there are others who expect them not to do so amid the current period of uncertainty. The market will be looking for clues on whether the BoJ is likely to hike by 25 basis points in July
Wed night: FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% amid renewed inflation pressures and improvements in the labor market. The communication will likely acknowledge headwinds facing the economy stemming from the recent oil price shock. The committee is also expected to refrain from offering any forward guidance, instead emphasizing the data-dependent nature of their policy decisions
Thu: China's April Manufacturing PMI is expected by Bloomberg to dip slightly from the previous month but maintain its expansion phase
Thu night: the US Q1 GDP estimation suggests an expansion of +1.2% q/q (annualized) in real GDP. Growth may surprise modestly on the upside to this estimate given that this may not fully reflect the mechanical rebound from the federal government shutdown in 4Q25
US' March real personal spending expected to rise by +0.1% over the previous month, will offer insight into consumer momentum and help shape expectations for 1Q growth
Fri night: the ISM Manufacturing Index for April is forecasted to edge down slightly to 52.2. In March, the index advanced to 52.7, marking the third consecutive month above the 50 threshold and signalling expansion in the manufacturing sector
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