To The Moon

How the Street Sees It: $QCOM & $ON Earnings Week 🚀

Hey everyone! Get ready, because the chips are down (and up!) this week. Last week’s analog rally from TI and friends really set the stage, and now it’s time to see if the momentum holds. We’ve got a classic "cyclical recovery" vibe going on, but not everyone is invited to the party. Let's dive in! 🍿

💡 Industry Backdrop: Why This Week Matters

The recovery is officially broadening! Industrial is leading the charge, auto is holding up better than we feared, and pricing power is actually firming up (hello, MCUs!).

• The Vibe: Customer inventories are super low, lead times are stretching, and the focus is shifting toward premium tech.

• The Split: It’s a tale of two markets. Cyclical analog names are catching a serious wave 🌊, while smartphone-focused names are feeling the squeeze from high memory costs.

  

📱 $高通(QCOM)$ — Underweight | PT $132

"Could Qualcomm be the next short squeeze?" 🤔

• Reports: Tonight! Wednesday, April 29 (After Close)

• The Setup: We’ve been bearish since February and haven’t blinked. Earnings power feels tapped out, and those smartphone headwinds are still a bit too chilly.

• The Twist: Positioning is super crowded on the short side. If tonight’s print is even "okay" (thanks, Apple!), or if that June data center pitch sounds extra spicy, we could see some fireworks. 🎆

Three Debates to Watch:

1. Apple vs. Android: $QCOM has the iPhone win for now, but Android (70% of revenue!) is struggling. Aside from Samsung, orders are being trimmed across the board.

2. The Apple "Wall": Any strength from Apple has an expiration date. They’re building their own silicon, and that’s a "zero terminal value" problem for $QCOM down the road.

3. Data Center Dreams: Can $QCOM really take on the server CPU giants? Management is optimistic, but we’re keeping our "skeptical" hat on for now. 🧢

Street Stats:

• March Q Revenue: $10.6B

• June Q EPS: $2.42

• Current Risk/Reward: Base PT $132 (vs. ~$149 current).

⚡ $安森美半导体(ON)$ Semiconductor — Equal-weight | PT $85

"Negativity is priced in... but expectations are moving fast!" 🏃♂️

• Reports: Monday, May 4 (After Close)

• The Setup: Everyone is looking for a beat-and-raise. The stock has been a total rockstar—up 82% YTD! We bumped our PT from $64 to $85 to keep up with the analog acceleration.

• The Math: We’re looking at a 20x multiple now, reflecting a much healthier market for power and auto chips.

Two Debates to Watch:

1. SiC Powering Up: After a rough patch of oversupply, Silicon Carbide (SiC) is stabilizing. With auto wins and data center demand, the second half of 2026 is looking bright! ☀️

2. The Margin Unwind: ON has been dealing with some "underutilization" drags. If they can clear those impairment charges and ride the data center wave, we might see a "4-handle" gross margin (breaking 40%!).

Street Stats:

• 1Q26 Revenue: $1.487B

• 2027 EPS: $4.04

• Current Risk/Reward: Base PT $85 (vs. ~$98 current).

🤝 How the Two Fit Together

The analog/auto recovery is the real deal, but for $ON, a lot of that "good news" is already baked into that massive YTD run. Meanwhile, $QCOM is stuck in the smartphone slow lane—though shorting it right now feels like a high-stakes game of chicken because everyone else is doing it too! 🐔

🎯 Bottom Line

• $高通(QCOM)$ : We still lean against the smartphone exposure, but don’t try to be a "hero short" tonight. 🙅♀️

• $安森美半导体(ON)$ : Expect a beat, but the "easy money" has likely been made. It might be time to trim into any extra strength.

Question for the group: Do you think $QCOM's June EPS holds up once Android revisions hit? And for $ON, can a margin surprise really push a stock that’s already up 82%? Let’s hear your takes! 👇

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