To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  $Broadcom(AVGO)$  📊🧠 May Seasonality and Semiconductor Leadership in the S&P 500 🧠📊

📈 I’m focusing on a data set that consistently rewards attention. Over the past 10 years, May has shown a clear and repeatable bias toward semiconductor outperformance within the S&P 500, and the concentration is too strong to dismiss as noise.

🧠 Structural edge, not coincidence

I’m analysing the top 25 S&P 500 performers in May, and 13 of those names come from semiconductors. That is more than half of the leaderboard dominated by a single industry group.

• $NVDA: +17.4% average return, 90% positive frequency

• $AVGO, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC: all ~90% win rates

• 13/25 top performers = semiconductors

I’m not looking at isolated winners. I’m seeing a persistent sector-level edge that has held through multiple macro regimes.

⚡ Momentum confirming the signal

I’m layering that with current market structure. The $SOX has already advanced roughly +45% in a short time frame, which typically reflects institutional positioning rather than late-cycle retail participation.

This creates a more nuanced setup. Seasonality suggests continuation, but magnitude of the prior move introduces positioning risk.

I’m asking whether this becomes:

• A continuation phase driven by earnings and AI demand

• Or a distribution phase into strength following an extended run

📊 Earnings density meets narrative expansion

I’m tracking a high concentration of earnings catalysts landing directly into this seasonal window. That’s where dispersion and asymmetric opportunities tend to emerge.

High-focus names:

$ALAB $APP $ARM $IREN $AMD

Momentum and narrative extensions:

$SHOP $PLTR $DDOG $FSLY $SNAP $SMCI $UBER $MSTR

I’m prioritising where expectations, positioning, and forward guidance are most likely to diverge.

🏛️ Macro overlay cannot be ignored

I’m factoring in Jerome Powell speaking Wednesday, marking his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair.

This introduces a non-trivial macro variable, particularly for duration-sensitive sectors like semiconductors. Any shift in tone around rates or liquidity has the potential to reprice multiples quickly.

🧭 Strategic framing

I’m viewing this as a rare convergence of:

• Long-term seasonal outperformance

• Strong pre-positioning and momentum

• High-impact earnings catalysts

• A meaningful macro inflection point

That alignment tends to produce opportunity, but it also demands precision in execution.

👉❓With semiconductors historically strong in May and already up sharply into the month, does the data support a second leg higher, or are we approaching an exhaustion phase where positioning becomes the risk?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀