I think HBM still has upside, but easy money is no longer easy.
Bull case, cycle not done
AI accelerator demand remains structurally strong, led by NVIDIA, custom ASICs from hyperscalers, and broader enterprise AI adoption.
HBM is not commodity DRAM. It is high-complexity, packaging-constrained, and qualification-heavy. Supply cannot ramp overnight.
Beneficiaries remain clear: Micron Technology, SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, plus ecosystem names like SanDisk on broader memory repricing.
Bear case, valuation is running ahead
This week’s sharp move likely pulled forward part of 2H expectations.
Once Samsung and SK hynix commit materially more wafer capacity, markets will start pricing the next oversupply phase before it arrives.
Memory stocks historically peak when sentiment is strongest.
My base case
HBM: bullish into 2027
Commodity NAND/DRAM: watchful, more cyclical
Near term: healthy consolidation would be normal after a vertical rally
My positioning call:
> Hold core, trim momentum, buy pullbacks.
Not a sector I would short, but not one I would chase blindly after a 15 to 16 per cent spike either.
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