I do not think the entire H2 upside has been fully priced in yet, but expectations are now extremely elevated.
Micron Technology and SanDisk are benefiting from something larger than a normal memory rebound:
HBM demand tied to AI accelerators remains supply constrained.
AI servers consume far more DRAM and NAND per rack than traditional servers.
Hyperscaler capex has shifted from “testing AI” to infrastructure scaling.
That is why markets are willing to pay higher multiples versus past memory cycles.
Still, the market is beginning to price in a “perfect scenario”:
sustained HBM shortages,
disciplined supply growth,
and continued hyperscaler spending into 2027.
The biggest risk is exactly what you highlighted. If Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix aggressively expand HBM/DRAM capacity faster than expected, memory cycles can peak violently because supply eventually overwhelms demand. Historically, memory stocks often top before earnings peak.
My view:
Near term momentum can still extend because institutional rotation into AI infrastructure is ongoing.
HBM pricing likely stays strong through at least the next few quarters.
But upside from here becomes increasingly dependent on execution and guidance, not just AI enthusiasm.
So this no longer looks like an “early-cycle easy money” phase. It is shifting into a higher-risk late momentum phase where volatility and sharp pullbacks become much more likely even if the long-term AI thesis remains intact.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
