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东方秋爽
05-18 11:27

Earnings Preview | NVIDIA Performance Expectations Strong! The top of the 5 trillion market value is welcoming the stress test. Can the enthusiasm of AI investment continue?

全球AI算力霸主$英伟达$将于美东时间5月20日盘后发布财报，这不仅是一次常规的业绩检验，更是对当前全球AI投资热情和科技股估值逻辑的一次集中压力测试。英伟达近期成为全球资本市场的焦点。全财年英伟达的营收也创年度最高纪录，达2159.38亿美元，较上年同比增长65%。总结：定义风向的时刻综上所述，英伟达的此次财报，是其站在5万亿美元市值之巅的一场“大考”。

Earnings Preview | NVIDIA Performance Expectations Strong! The top of the 5 trillion market value is welcoming the stress test. Can the enthusiasm of AI investment continue?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":565418583511976,"tweetId":"565418583511976","gmtCreate":1779074864319,"gmtModify":1779074867473,"author":{"id":3578873579054374,"idStr":"3578873579054374","authorId":3578873579054374,"authorIdStr":"3578873579054374","name":"东方秋爽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fb0c7756006a76767a39626154d7c9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4038503181019\">@1一一 &nbsp;</a>h</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4038503181019\">@1一一 &nbsp;</a>h</p></body></html>","text":"@1一一 h","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565418583511976","repostId":1187688690,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187688690","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1778990073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187688690?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-17 11:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | NVIDIA Performance Expectations Strong! The top of the 5 trillion market value is welcoming the stress test. Can the enthusiasm of AI investment continue?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187688690","media":"财报Agent","summary":"全球AI算力霸主$英伟达$将于美东时间5月20日盘后发布财报，这不仅是一次常规的业绩检验，更是对当前全球AI投资热情和科技股估值逻辑的一次集中压力测试。英伟达近期成为全球资本市场的焦点。全财年英伟达的营收也创年度最高纪录，达2159.38亿美元，较上年同比增长65%。总结：定义风向的时刻综上所述，英伟达的此次财报，是其站在5万亿美元市值之巅的一场“大考”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global AI Computing Power Overlord<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The financial report will be released after the market on May 20th, EST. This is not only a routine performance test, but also a concentrated stress test of the current global AI investment enthusiasm and the valuation logic of technology stocks.</p><p>According to the forecast of Tiger International APP data source, Nvidia's revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 is expected to reach 78.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.66%; Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.756 yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 88.15%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8bba860b5b8783f88b60b875dcb7f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p>Forecasts from top investment banks are more aggressive. Citi expects revenue to reach $80 billion, and Wells Fargo has given an optimistic estimate of $80.4 billion and raised its price target to $315.</p><p>Nvidia has recently become the focus of global capital markets. From May 6th to May 14th, its share price continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20%, and its latest market value stood firm at $5 trillion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0347786baede97c57b8f4dd7dd3620\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>This round of rise is due to the market's optimistic expectation of its financial report, and secondly, due to a key policy change during Trump's visit to China-10 Chinese companies were allowed to buy H200. The market's expectation that Huang Renxun will return to the Chinese market after Trump's visit to China has heated up, further strengthening the confidence of bulls.</p><p><strong>Last Quarter Review</strong></p><p>In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia's revenue increased by 73% year-on-year to $68.127 billion, which was significantly higher than the 62% year-on-year growth rate in the previous quarter and exceeded Nvidia's own median guidance of $65 billion. While analysts were expecting revenue of $65.91 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 68%. Nvidia's revenue for the full fiscal year also hit an annual record of $215.938 billion, up 65% year-on-year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The gross profit margin became another bright spot in the fourth quarter: the gross profit margin under the non-GAAP caliber was 75.2%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reaching a single-quarter high since the second fiscal quarter of fiscal 2025, higher than the analysts' consensus expectation of 74.7% and the optimistic expectation of 75.0%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1efc39e528931b47fe4787c704d20d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Nvidia's data center business recorded revenue of $62.314 billion, up 75% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than 66% in the previous quarter. Analysts expected it to increase by nearly 70% year-on-year to $60.36 billion.</p><p>Inside the data center, Nvidia gave two more noteworthy sets of numbers:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li>Data center computing (Compute) revenue was US$51.334 billion, up 58% year-on-year, and the growth rate was slightly higher than the 56% in the third quarter.</p><p></li><li>Data center Networking revenue was US$10.98 billion, up 263% year-on-year, and the growth rate far exceeded the 162% in the third quarter.</p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, Nvidia's gaming business revenue was $3.727 billion, up 47% year-on-year, compared with analysts' expectations of $4.01 billion, up 30% year-on-year in the previous quarter.</p><p>In terms of performance guidance, Nvidia announced that its revenue in the first quarter is expected to be $78 billion, up or down 2%, or $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion. Adjusted gross margin on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter is expected to be 75%, up or down 50 basis points, or 74.5% to 75.5%, with buyer optimism estimates of 75% and sell consensus estimates of 74.7%.</p><p><strong>3. Core highlights of this quarter</strong></p><p>When investors review the financial report this time, their eyes will penetrate the superficial financial figures and focus on the four core dimensions that support their grand narrative:</p><p><strong>1. The \"hardness\" of financial data: gross profit margin is the touchstone</strong></p><p>Whether revenue can break the $80 billion mark is the primary suspense. However, what is more substantial is whether the adjusted gross profit margin can be maintained at a historical high of about 75% under the background of the conversion period between the old and new product platforms (Blackwell's comprehensive volume, Vera Rubin's R&D promotion).</p><p>This directly tests whether Nvidia's technological leadership can continue to translate into strong profitability in the face of potential competition and rising costs. Any gross profit margin performance beyond expectations will be the strongest proof of its \"moat\".</p><p><strong>2. Demand verification: from \"arms race\" to \"protracted war\"</strong></p><p>The fundamental driver of growth comes from the near-frenetic capital expenditure of global tech giants. The capital expenditure plans of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta in 2026 combined to up to $725 billion constitute a solid base for Nvidia's needs.</p><p>The key question to be answered in the financial report is: Is the demand structure healthily spreading from centralized large model training to broader and more sustainable enterprise reasoning, edge computing and \"Agentic AI\" applications? This determines the long-term credibility of its trillion-dollar market size narrative.</p><p><strong>3. The rhythm of product iteration: Blackwell's present and Rubin's future</strong></p><p>Blackwell: As the current absolute revenue pillar, its capacity climbing speed, market penetration rate (Citi expects to account for more than 70% of high-end GPU shipments in 2026) and actual revenue contribution will be the core of judging the growth curve of this fiscal year and the next fiscal year.</p><p>Vera Rubin: As a next-generation platform, its progress is a window to see the growth potential beyond 2027. According to reports, the platform has finalized its mass production plan, which is planned to be trial produced in June and delivered to the head cloud vendors in July. Any specific guidance from management on Rubin's order visibility, production schedule and customer feedback during the earnings call will be key to impacting the long-term valuation. Whether CEO Huang Renxun's forecast that the cumulative revenue opportunity of Blackwell and Rubin platforms will exceed $1 trillion will be further confirmed or raised has attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>4. Ecological attack: from \"shovel sellers\" to \"infrastructure operators\"</strong></p><p>Nvidia's story has long gone beyond a single GPU:</p><p>Network business: It is rising at an alarming rate, and its high-speed interconnection solutions (such as Spectrum-X) have become a strategic weapon to lock in customers and enhance the value of single customers, marking its successful evolution to a full-stack solution provider of \"AI factory\".</p><p>Strategic investment: Through large-scale investments (such as strategic layout for CoreWeave, data center operators, etc.), Nvidia is building a deeply bound ecosystem. This \"circular\" ecological strategy of \"capital + technology\" not only strengthens its dominant position in the industry, but also triggers in-depth market analysis with its long-term health and reflection of real terminal demand.</p><p><strong>IV. Risk Review: The Undercurrent of the Peak of Trillion Market Value</strong></p><p>Under the ultimate optimistic consensus, the risks are also clearly visible, and any details that fall short of expectations may be magnified by the market:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong>Side erosion of competitive barriers</strong>: The continuous progress of self-developed chips such as Google TPU and Amazon Trainium, although they have jointly enlarged the market in the short term, is gradually eroding the market share of customized AI computing power in the long run. The diversification of the procurement portfolio of customers (such as Anthropic) is a clear warning sign.</p><p></li><li><strong>Concerns about the capital expenditure cycle</strong>: The heavy investment of cloud giants ultimately needs AI applications to generate tangible commercial returns to support it. If the application commercialization process is slower than expected, or changes in the macroeconomic environment may lead to a slowdown in the pace of capital expenditure and trigger cyclical fluctuations in the industry.</p><p></li><li><strong>Fragile balance between valuation and expectation</strong>: The sharp rise in stock price has been factored into a near-perfect growth outlook. While current valuations based on future earnings are relatively attractive, \"imperfections\" in any respect – whether short-lived fluctuations in gross profit margins, guidance for next quarter that is \"merely\" in line with expectations rather than a substantial increase, or management's cautious comments on the competitive situation – can be a trigger for profit-taking and valuation repricing.</p><p></li></ul><strong>Summary: Moments that define wind direction</strong></p><p>To sum up, Nvidia's financial report is a \"big test\" for it to stand on the top of its market value of $5 trillion. It needs to prove to the market whether its core driver (data center demand) remains as strong as ever after creating historic growth; Whether its technical moat (product iteration and gross profit margin) is still unfathomable; Whether the ecosystem (networks and strategic investments) it builds is strong enough to withstand future competition.</p><p>In the grand narrative of AI shaping the future global economy, the significance of this earnings report has exceeded a company's performance itself. A comprehensive and strong \"Beat-and-Raise\" answer sheet will reconfirm the long-term logic of AI infrastructure investment and may ignite a new round of market enthusiasm. On the contrary, if any signs of weakness emerge, historically high stock prices and extremely crowded optimistic trading may face a severe test. This is not only Nvidia's financial report, but also a key window to observe the pulse of the entire technology era.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | NVIDIA Performance Expectations Strong! The top of the 5 trillion market value is welcoming the stress test. 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The top of the 5 trillion market value is welcoming the stress test. Can the enthusiasm of AI investment continue?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-17 11:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global AI Computing Power Overlord<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The financial report will be released after the market on May 20th, EST. This is not only a routine performance test, but also a concentrated stress test of the current global AI investment enthusiasm and the valuation logic of technology stocks.</p><p>According to the forecast of Tiger International APP data source, Nvidia's revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 is expected to reach 78.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.66%; Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.756 yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 88.15%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8bba860b5b8783f88b60b875dcb7f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p>Forecasts from top investment banks are more aggressive. Citi expects revenue to reach $80 billion, and Wells Fargo has given an optimistic estimate of $80.4 billion and raised its price target to $315.</p><p>Nvidia has recently become the focus of global capital markets. From May 6th to May 14th, its share price continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20%, and its latest market value stood firm at $5 trillion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0347786baede97c57b8f4dd7dd3620\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>This round of rise is due to the market's optimistic expectation of its financial report, and secondly, due to a key policy change during Trump's visit to China-10 Chinese companies were allowed to buy H200. The market's expectation that Huang Renxun will return to the Chinese market after Trump's visit to China has heated up, further strengthening the confidence of bulls.</p><p><strong>Last Quarter Review</strong></p><p>In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia's revenue increased by 73% year-on-year to $68.127 billion, which was significantly higher than the 62% year-on-year growth rate in the previous quarter and exceeded Nvidia's own median guidance of $65 billion. While analysts were expecting revenue of $65.91 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 68%. Nvidia's revenue for the full fiscal year also hit an annual record of $215.938 billion, up 65% year-on-year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The gross profit margin became another bright spot in the fourth quarter: the gross profit margin under the non-GAAP caliber was 75.2%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reaching a single-quarter high since the second fiscal quarter of fiscal 2025, higher than the analysts' consensus expectation of 74.7% and the optimistic expectation of 75.0%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1efc39e528931b47fe4787c704d20d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Nvidia's data center business recorded revenue of $62.314 billion, up 75% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than 66% in the previous quarter. Analysts expected it to increase by nearly 70% year-on-year to $60.36 billion.</p><p>Inside the data center, Nvidia gave two more noteworthy sets of numbers:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li>Data center computing (Compute) revenue was US$51.334 billion, up 58% year-on-year, and the growth rate was slightly higher than the 56% in the third quarter.</p><p></li><li>Data center Networking revenue was US$10.98 billion, up 263% year-on-year, and the growth rate far exceeded the 162% in the third quarter.</p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, Nvidia's gaming business revenue was $3.727 billion, up 47% year-on-year, compared with analysts' expectations of $4.01 billion, up 30% year-on-year in the previous quarter.</p><p>In terms of performance guidance, Nvidia announced that its revenue in the first quarter is expected to be $78 billion, up or down 2%, or $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion. Adjusted gross margin on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter is expected to be 75%, up or down 50 basis points, or 74.5% to 75.5%, with buyer optimism estimates of 75% and sell consensus estimates of 74.7%.</p><p><strong>3. Core highlights of this quarter</strong></p><p>When investors review the financial report this time, their eyes will penetrate the superficial financial figures and focus on the four core dimensions that support their grand narrative:</p><p><strong>1. The \"hardness\" of financial data: gross profit margin is the touchstone</strong></p><p>Whether revenue can break the $80 billion mark is the primary suspense. However, what is more substantial is whether the adjusted gross profit margin can be maintained at a historical high of about 75% under the background of the conversion period between the old and new product platforms (Blackwell's comprehensive volume, Vera Rubin's R&D promotion).</p><p>This directly tests whether Nvidia's technological leadership can continue to translate into strong profitability in the face of potential competition and rising costs. Any gross profit margin performance beyond expectations will be the strongest proof of its \"moat\".</p><p><strong>2. Demand verification: from \"arms race\" to \"protracted war\"</strong></p><p>The fundamental driver of growth comes from the near-frenetic capital expenditure of global tech giants. The capital expenditure plans of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta in 2026 combined to up to $725 billion constitute a solid base for Nvidia's needs.</p><p>The key question to be answered in the financial report is: Is the demand structure healthily spreading from centralized large model training to broader and more sustainable enterprise reasoning, edge computing and \"Agentic AI\" applications? This determines the long-term credibility of its trillion-dollar market size narrative.</p><p><strong>3. The rhythm of product iteration: Blackwell's present and Rubin's future</strong></p><p>Blackwell: As the current absolute revenue pillar, its capacity climbing speed, market penetration rate (Citi expects to account for more than 70% of high-end GPU shipments in 2026) and actual revenue contribution will be the core of judging the growth curve of this fiscal year and the next fiscal year.</p><p>Vera Rubin: As a next-generation platform, its progress is a window to see the growth potential beyond 2027. According to reports, the platform has finalized its mass production plan, which is planned to be trial produced in June and delivered to the head cloud vendors in July. Any specific guidance from management on Rubin's order visibility, production schedule and customer feedback during the earnings call will be key to impacting the long-term valuation. Whether CEO Huang Renxun's forecast that the cumulative revenue opportunity of Blackwell and Rubin platforms will exceed $1 trillion will be further confirmed or raised has attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>4. Ecological attack: from \"shovel sellers\" to \"infrastructure operators\"</strong></p><p>Nvidia's story has long gone beyond a single GPU:</p><p>Network business: It is rising at an alarming rate, and its high-speed interconnection solutions (such as Spectrum-X) have become a strategic weapon to lock in customers and enhance the value of single customers, marking its successful evolution to a full-stack solution provider of \"AI factory\".</p><p>Strategic investment: Through large-scale investments (such as strategic layout for CoreWeave, data center operators, etc.), Nvidia is building a deeply bound ecosystem. This \"circular\" ecological strategy of \"capital + technology\" not only strengthens its dominant position in the industry, but also triggers in-depth market analysis with its long-term health and reflection of real terminal demand.</p><p><strong>IV. Risk Review: The Undercurrent of the Peak of Trillion Market Value</strong></p><p>Under the ultimate optimistic consensus, the risks are also clearly visible, and any details that fall short of expectations may be magnified by the market:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong>Side erosion of competitive barriers</strong>: The continuous progress of self-developed chips such as Google TPU and Amazon Trainium, although they have jointly enlarged the market in the short term, is gradually eroding the market share of customized AI computing power in the long run. The diversification of the procurement portfolio of customers (such as Anthropic) is a clear warning sign.</p><p></li><li><strong>Concerns about the capital expenditure cycle</strong>: The heavy investment of cloud giants ultimately needs AI applications to generate tangible commercial returns to support it. If the application commercialization process is slower than expected, or changes in the macroeconomic environment may lead to a slowdown in the pace of capital expenditure and trigger cyclical fluctuations in the industry.</p><p></li><li><strong>Fragile balance between valuation and expectation</strong>: The sharp rise in stock price has been factored into a near-perfect growth outlook. While current valuations based on future earnings are relatively attractive, \"imperfections\" in any respect – whether short-lived fluctuations in gross profit margins, guidance for next quarter that is \"merely\" in line with expectations rather than a substantial increase, or management's cautious comments on the competitive situation – can be a trigger for profit-taking and valuation repricing.</p><p></li></ul><strong>Summary: Moments that define wind direction</strong></p><p>To sum up, Nvidia's financial report is a \"big test\" for it to stand on the top of its market value of $5 trillion. It needs to prove to the market whether its core driver (data center demand) remains as strong as ever after creating historic growth; Whether its technical moat (product iteration and gross profit margin) is still unfathomable; Whether the ecosystem (networks and strategic investments) it builds is strong enough to withstand future competition.</p><p>In the grand narrative of AI shaping the future global economy, the significance of this earnings report has exceeded a company's performance itself. A comprehensive and strong \"Beat-and-Raise\" answer sheet will reconfirm the long-term logic of AI infrastructure investment and may ignite a new round of market enthusiasm. On the contrary, if any signs of weakness emerge, historically high stock prices and extremely crowded optimistic trading may face a severe test. This is not only Nvidia's financial report, but also a key window to observe the pulse of the entire technology era.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","07388":"XI二南英伟","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDA":"英伟达","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187688690","content_text":"全球AI算力霸主英伟达将于美东时间5月20日盘后发布财报，这不仅是一次常规的业绩检验，更是对当前全球AI投资热情和科技股估值逻辑的一次集中压力测试。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，英伟达2027财年第一季度营收有望达786.7亿元，同比增长81.66%；每股收益（EPS）预计为1.756元，同比增长88.15%。顶级投行的预测更为激进。花旗预计营收将达800亿美元，富国银行更是给出804亿美元的乐观预期，并将其目标价上调至315美元 。英伟达近期成为全球资本市场的焦点。5月6日-5月14日其股价连续上涨，累计涨幅近20%，最新市值站稳5万亿美元。此轮上涨一是由于市场对其财报的乐观预期，二是由于在特朗普访华期间发生的一个关键的政策转变——10家中企获准购买H200，市场对黄仁勋随特朗普访华后英伟达重返中国市场的预期升温，进一步强化多头信心。上季度回顾2026财年第四财季英伟达营收同比增长73%至681.27亿美元，同比增速明显高于前一季的62%，超过英伟达自身指引中值650亿美元。而分析师预期营收为659.1亿美元、同比增长约68%。全财年英伟达的营收也创年度最高纪录，达2159.38亿美元，较上年同比增长65%。毛利率成为四季度另一亮点：非GAAP口径下毛利率75.2%，同比提升1.7个百分点，环比升1.6个百分点，创2025财年第二财季以来单季新高，高于分析师共识预期74.7%以及乐观预期75.0%。四季度英伟达的数据中心业务录得营收623.14亿美元，同比增长75%，增速高于前一季度的66%，分析师预期同比增近70%至603.6亿美元。在数据中心内部，英伟达给出了更值得关注的两组数字：数据中心计算（Compute）收入513.34亿美元，同比增长58%，增速略高于三季度的56%。数据中心网络（Networking）收入109.80亿美元，同比增长263%，增速远超三季度的162%。四季度英伟达的游戏业务营收37.27亿美元，同比增长47%，分析师预期为40.1亿美元，前一季度同比增长30%。业绩指引方面，英伟达公布，一季度营收预计为780亿美元，上下浮动2%，即764.4亿至795.6亿美元。一季度非GAAP口径下调整后毛利率预计为75%，上下浮动50个基点，即74.5%至75.5%，买方乐观预期为75%，卖方共识预期为74.7%。三、 本季度核心看点投资者此次审视财报，目光将穿透表面的财务数字，聚焦于支撑其宏大叙事的四大核心维度：1、财务数据的“硬度”：毛利率是试金石营收能否冲破800亿美元大关是首要悬念。但更具实质意义的，是在新旧产品平台转换期（Blackwell全面上量，Vera Rubin研发推进）的背景下，调整后毛利率能否维持在75%左右的历史高位。这直接检验着英伟达面对潜在竞争和成本上升时，其技术领先优势能否持续转化为强大的盈利能力。任何超预期的毛利率表现，都将是对其“护城河”最有力的证明。2、需求验证：从“军备竞赛”到“持久战”增长的根本驱动力，来自于全球科技巨头近乎狂热的资本开支。微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta四大巨头2026年合计高达7250亿美元的资本开支计划，构成了英伟达需求的坚实底座。财报需要回答的关键问题是：需求结构是否正在健康地从集中的大模型训练，向更广泛、更可持续的企业推理、边缘计算及“代理式AI”（Agentic AI）应用扩散？这决定了其万亿美元市场规模叙事的长期可信度。3、产品迭代的节奏：Blackwell的当下与Rubin的未来Blackwell：作为当前绝对的收入支柱，其产能爬坡速度、市场渗透率（花旗预计2026年将占高端GPU出货量的70%以上）及实际营收贡献，将是判断本财年及下一财年增长曲线的核心。Vera Rubin：作为下一代平台，其进展是观察2027年之后增长潜力的窗口。据报道，该平台已敲定量产方案，计划于6月试产、7月向头部云厂商交付。财报电话会中，管理层关于Rubin的订单能见度、量产时间表及客户反馈的任何具体指引，都将是影响长期估值的关键。CEO黄仁勋关于Blackwell与Rubin平台累计收入机会超1万亿美元的预测，是否会得到进一步确认或上调，备受瞩目。4、生态的进击：从“卖铲人”到“基建运营商”英伟达的故事早已超越单一的GPU：网络业务：正以惊人的速度崛起，其高速互联解决方案（如Spectrum-X）已成为锁定客户、提升单客户价值的战略武器，标志着其向“AI工厂”全栈解决方案提供商的成功进化。战略投资：通过大规模投资（如对CoreWeave、数据中心运营商等的战略布局），英伟达正构建一个深度绑定的生态系统。这种“资本+技术”的“循环式”生态战略，在强化其行业主导地位的同时，其长期健康度与对真实终端需求的反映，也引发市场深度分析。四、 风险审视：万亿市值巅峰的暗流在极致的乐观共识下，风险同样清晰可见，任何不及预期的细节都可能被市场放大：竞争壁垒的侧面侵蚀：谷歌TPU、亚马逊Trainium等自研芯片的持续进步，虽然短期内共同做大了市场，但长期看正在逐步侵蚀定制化AI算力的市场份额。客户（如Anthropic）采购组合的多元化是一个明确的警示信号。资本开支周期的疑虑：云巨头的天量投入最终需要AI应用产生实实在在的商业回报来支撑。若应用商业化进程慢于预期，或宏观经济环境变化，可能导致资本开支节奏放缓，引发行业周期性波动。估值与预期的脆弱平衡：股价的大幅上涨已计入了近乎完美的增长前景。当前基于未来盈利的估值虽具相对吸引力，但任何方面的“不完美”——无论是毛利率的短暂波动、下季度指引“仅仅”符合预期而非大幅上调，或是管理层对竞争态势的谨慎评论——都可能成为触发获利了结和估值重新定价的导火索。总结：定义风向的时刻综上所述，英伟达的此次财报，是其站在5万亿美元市值之巅的一场“大考”。它需要向市场证明：在创造了历史性的增长之后，其核心驱动力（数据中心需求）是否依然强劲如初；其技术护城河（产品迭代与毛利率）是否依旧深不可测；其构建的生态系统（网络与战略投资）是否足够稳固以抵御未来的竞争。在AI塑造未来全球经济的宏大叙事中，这份财报的意义已超越一家公司的业绩本身。一份全面、强劲的“Beat-and-Raise”答卷，将重新确认AI基础设施投资的长期逻辑，并可能点燃新一轮的市场热情。反之，若出现任何疲软信号，处于历史高位的股价和极度拥挤的乐观交易，或将面临严峻考验。这不仅是英伟达的财报，更是观察整个科技时代脉搏的关键窗口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":2,"07788":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}