The concern is valid, but the timeline is often misunderstood. HBM does not behave like normal DRAM cycles where oversupply quickly crushes pricing.
Three constraints still protect Micron Technology in the near term:
1) Packaging bottlenecks, not wafer supply
Even if Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ramp wafers aggressively, HBM output is capped by advanced packaging (CoWoS at TSMC). That bottleneck is still tight into 2026.
2) Qualification cycles
HBM is not a commodity drop-in. NVIDIA and hyperscalers must qualify each vendor per generation. NVIDIA Blackwell systems will not suddenly switch suppliers overnight, which slows share shifts.
3) Demand still outrunning supply (for now)
AI cluster buildouts remain front-loaded. Even with capacity expansion, supply is catching up to extreme demand, not exceeding it yet.
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So how long does MU’s excess profit window last?
Base case: another 2–4 quarters of strong pricing power, with gradual compression starting late 2026.
Near term (next 1–2 quarters): margins remain elevated
Mid term (3–6 quarters): pricing power softens as supply broadens
Longer term: HBM behaves more like high-end DRAM, not scarcity pricing
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What would break the thesis early?
Samsung closes the yield gap faster than expected
CoWoS capacity expands faster than GPU demand
Hyperscalers shift to in-house ASIC + alternative memory configs
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On the $700 level
A break is less about fundamentals collapsing and more about the market repricing MU from “scarcity premium” to “cycle participant”.
My view: the window is narrowing, but not closed.
The mistake would be assuming HBM = permanent pricing power. It is still cyclical, just delayed.
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