To The Moon

😀 Hi Tigers,

Last week was not a normal market week.

Trump’s China visit, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ’s AI-driven rally, SpaceX’s reported IPO timeline, Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair, the CLARITY Act advancing in the Senate, hotter-than-expected PPI data, and China tech earnings all hit the market almost simultaneously.

For trading platforms, the impact was immediate. Driven by global headlines and Chinese ADR earnings season, Australia WAU and PV both reached record highs, while average user time stabilized after previous declines and stayed roughly flat week-on-week.

One-Sentence Conclusion

SpaceX may become the biggest IPO story in history — but this week’s real setup is even bigger: AI momentum, China diplomacy, inflation pressure, crypto regulation, and IPO speculation are all colliding at once.

1. Last Week’s Big Picture: Why Market Attention Suddenly Spiked

Last week was packed with major macro and market catalysts.

Trump’s China visit temporarily eased geopolitical concerns around U.S.-China assets, while Nvidia’s continued rally reinforced strong AI momentum ahead of earnings. With a market cap near $5.44 trillion, Nvidia remains the clearest symbol of the AI infrastructure trade.

At the same time, Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next Fed Chair and hotter-than-expected U.S. PPI data complicated the “rate cuts soon” narrative. April PPI rose 1.4% MoM and 6.0% YoY, the strongest annual increase since late 2022.

Crypto regulation also moved forward, with the CLARITY Act advancing through the Senate Banking Committee, though it has not yet passed the full Senate.

Meanwhile, China tech earnings kept sentiment active. Alibaba’s revenue slightly missed expectations, but strong AI and cloud growth — including 38% YoY growth in Cloud Intelligence revenue — helped support the stock.

The broader takeaway was clear:

AI, macro policy, geopolitics, crypto regulation, and IPO speculation are all driving market attention at the same time.

2. This Week’s Watchlist: AI, Earnings, China Diplomacy and SpaceX

3. SpaceX IPO: The Week’s Biggest IPO Catalyst

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, with Reuters reporting a possible $75 billion raise at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion. If completed at that level, it would be the largest stock market flotation in history.

Shareholders have also reportedly approved a 5-for-1 stock split, which could bring the reference share price closer to the $100 level and make the IPO look more accessible to retail investors.

But here is the key question:

Is SpaceX being valued as an aerospace company, or as the future infrastructure layer of space, telecom and AI?

That distinction matters because traditional aerospace valuation does not explain a $1.75 trillion number.

4. SpaceX vs. Traditional Aerospace: The Valuation Gap Is Massive

$Boeing(BA)$ ’s current market cap is around $174 billion, while $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ is around $122 billion. SpaceX’s reported valuation target would therefore place it far above both legacy aerospace peers, even though its estimated revenue base is much smaller.

This tells us one thing clearly: the market is not pricing SpaceX like a normal aerospace company.

It is pricing SpaceX as a platform.

5. Why Investors Are Willing to Pay the SpaceX Premium

1️⃣ Launch Dominance

SpaceX has changed the launch industry through reusable rockets, high launch cadence and lower cost-per-kilogram economics. Falcon 9 has already reshaped the market, while Starship is the long-term upside engine.

The bullish view is simple: if Starship scales, SpaceX may control not just launches, but the logistics layer of the future space economy.

2️⃣ Starlink Recurring Revenue

Starlink turns SpaceX from a project-based launch company into a recurring-revenue telecom infrastructure company.

That is a major valuation difference. Investors usually pay higher multiples for recurring revenue than for one-off hardware sales.

3️⃣ Defense and Sovereign Connectivity

Through Starshield and government-linked contracts, SpaceX is becoming strategically important to national security, communications and defense infrastructure.

This gives the company a moat that is not just technological, but also geopolitical.

4️⃣ AI and Orbital Infrastructure Optionality

The most speculative part of the valuation is the idea that SpaceX could become part of a wider AI infrastructure stack. Reports have linked SpaceX’s valuation story to Elon Musk’s xAI ecosystem, but this should still be treated carefully.

For investors, the key is to separate:

Existing business: launch + Starlink + defense Future optionality: Starship logistics + orbital data infrastructure + AI-linked use cases

The first part is real. The second part is powerful, but still early.

6. Peer Comparison: Space, AI and Infrastructure Names

Current market data shows $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at around $5.44T, $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ at around $79.4B, and $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ at around $25.2B.

This comparison shows how unusual SpaceX is. It is too large to be valued like Rocket Lab, too infrastructure-heavy to be compared only with Tesla, and too speculative to be judged like Lockheed Martin.

It sits in its own category: space infrastructure mega-platform.

7. Bull Case vs. Bear Case

Bull Case: SpaceX Becomes the Operating System of Space

The bull case is that SpaceX keeps dominating launch, scales Starlink into a global connectivity utility, expands defense revenue, and uses Starship to unlock new markets in orbital logistics, satellite deployment, lunar infrastructure and eventually Mars-related projects.

In this scenario, investors are not buying today’s revenue. They are buying a long-duration option on the commercialization of space.

Bear Case: Great Company, Dangerous Entry Price

The bear case is not that SpaceX is weak.

The bear case is that SpaceX may be too expensive at IPO.

At a reported valuation of around $1.75 trillion against estimated revenue of around $16.5 billion, the implied Price-to-Sales multiple is above 100x. That leaves very little room for execution mistakes.

If Starlink growth slows, Starship commercialization takes longer than expected, regulation tightens, or the market rotates away from high-growth narrative assets, valuation compression could be painful.

8. Key Risks to Watch

🚨 1. Regulatory Risk

SpaceX depends heavily on FAA launch approvals, FCC spectrum allocations and international permissions. Any major launch failure or regulatory delay could affect investor confidence.

🚨 2. Founder Control

If SpaceX lists with a dual-class structure, public investors may have limited voting power. That is common in founder-led tech companies, but it matters more when capital allocation may involve extremely long-term Mars or infrastructure ambitions.

🚨 3. Valuation Compression

A great company can still be a bad short-term investment if bought at the wrong price.

If the IPO opens far above the reported $1.75 trillion target, retail investors may face a difficult risk-reward setup.

🚨 4. Narrative Overload

SpaceX combines launch, satellite internet, defense, telecom, AI and Mars into one story. That makes it exciting, but also dangerous. The more narratives investors price in, the harder it becomes for the company to exceed expectations.

9. Who Should Consider It? Who Should Avoid It?

Suitable For

Long-term thematic investors Investors who want exposure to the next 10–20 years of space infrastructure may see SpaceX as a rare foundational asset.

High-risk growth allocators Investors who can tolerate deep drawdowns and long execution cycles may view SpaceX as a long-duration option on the space economy.

Avoid

Short-term IPO flippers If retail demand pushes the opening valuation too high, the first trading days could be extremely volatile.

Value-focused investors If you require near-term free cash flow yield, traditional DCF support or a wide margin of safety, SpaceX may be very difficult to justify at the reported valuation.

Final Takeaway

SpaceX may be one of the most important infrastructure companies of this generation.

But even a world-class company can become a risky investment if the IPO price already assumes perfect execution.

For retail investors, the smart move is not to blindly chase the hype. Wait for the official S-1, check the final valuation, review the share structure, study revenue breakdown between launch and Starlink, and watch how much of the story depends on future Starship and AI optionality.

Bottom line: SpaceX is not just another IPO. It is the market’s biggest test of how much investors are willing to pay for the future before that future fully arrives.

Data as of May 19, 2026. IPO timing, ticker, valuation, offering size, share structure, and final pricing remain subject to the official prospectus and regulatory review.