To The Moon

A macro narrative centered around rate cuts suddenly flipping into rate hikes is not a small shift. Hike odds were 18% last week, 36% yesterday, and now effectively 100%. The $US30Y(US30Y.BOND)$ just hit 5.2%, the highest level in 20 years. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ are down 4% over the past week, while silver has dropped 14% from recent highs. And tonight: $NVDA earnings. Can NVIDIA still save this market? Yardeni Calls for a July Rate Hike CME FedWatch is now pricing roughly a 42% chance of a hike this year. The real story: the bond vigilantes are now driving policy expectations. “Walsh is an outsider. The bond market is the real policymaker.” His projected path: June FOMC removes forward guidance for cuts (a stealth tightening) July delivers a direct 25bp hike The logic: Walsh may try to use hawkishness to force long-end yields lower — hiking rates in order to eventually create room for cuts later. That’s the real game. Gold Already Broke. Tech Hasn’t Yet. The most rate-sensitive assets moved first. That’s real repricing happening in real time. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has only pulled back about 2% from highs. Semis are trying to fight macro gravity through extreme concentration: “No matter how bad macro gets, if we all pile into AI together, maybe we can hold the line.” NVIDIA Earnings: 4 Down, 1 Up Goldman and Evercore Still Bullish Goldman just raised estimates again: CY26/27 EPS forecasts are now 14% / 34% above consensus. NTM P/E still trades roughly 10 turns below the 3-year median of 32x. Agentic AI CPU-only racks beginning shipment in 2H26 are barely priced in. Fundamentally, the logic still works. But in an environment where 30Y Treasury yields are at 20-year highs. Rate hike odds are exploding. …how good does NVIDIA’s earnings report need to be to actually pull mega-cap tech out of the macro swamp? If results massively beat: bulls may simply take profits; “Good news fully priced in” If results are only “good,” or merely “less great than expected,” macro gravity starts taking over again. At this point, arguing over incremental fundamentals may matter less than the rates backdrop itself. Tonight’s question: Can $NVDA deliver another “beat and rise” moment like May last year? With hike probabilities surging, are you still holding — or already trimming exposure? Do you think the Fed actually hikes in July, or does the market break first and force the Fed to pivot before then?