If SpaceX ever decides to list publicly in the US, were not talking about just another IPO.
We're talking about the IPO.
The kind that doesn't just break records, it rewrites how markets price the future.
Why This IPO Would Be Different?
Most IPOs are about monetising an existing business.
SpaceX is different. It isa platform on top of multiple exponential bets:
- Launch dominance (Falcon 9, Starship)
- Satellite infrastructure (Starlink)
- Long-term: logistics beyond Earth
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This isnt a“company going public.”
It's the financialisation of a space economy backbone.
If you try to benchmark it against traditional aerospace like Boeing or Lockheed Martin, you’re already thinking too small.
The closer comparison?
A mix of telecom + cloud + defense + logistics + deep tech.
The Valuation Question: $500B? $1T?
We got to be grounded, the moment this IPO hits, valuation discipline goes out the window. Why?
Because:
- Starlink alone is already a global cash engine
- Launch costs are structurally lower than anyone else
- Barriers to entry are borderline insurmountable
- If markets are willing to price software at insane multiples, what happens when you get:
- Recurring revenue (Starlink) + physical monopoly (launch) + future optionality (Mars, point-to-point logistics)?
Therefore trillion-dollar IPO doesn't sound crazy anymore.
The Shockwave Effect on Space Stocks
Now here’s where it gets interesting for current investors.
Companies like:
won't be ignored. They'll be repriced overnight.
Scenario 1: Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
If SpaceX lists at a massive valuation:
Investors rotate into the entire space sector
Multiples expand across the board
Smaller players get “sympathy premiums”
This is the NVIDIA effect, but for space.
Scenario 2: The Gravity Effect
But there's another side.
SpaceX could:
Suck in capital from smaller names
Expose how far ahead it actually is
Force investors to rethink risk vs dominance
In that case, weaker players get crushed, while only the best-in-class survive.
Where Each Player Stands
Let's talk about positioning:
Rocket Lab
The closest to a mini-SpaceX. End-to-end capability, strong execution. Still early, but credible. One of my ppersonal favourite.
AST SpaceMobile
Binary bet. If it works, it's revolutionary. If not, it's dead money.
Planet Labs
Data play. Less hype, more enterprise. Quiet compounder if execution holds.
Intuitive Machines
Niche but strategic. Tied to NASA and lunar economy bets.
The Bigger Picture: This Isn't About an IPO
This is about capital markets catching up to reality.
Space is no longer speculative.
It's becoming infrastructure.
The same way:
Railways defined the 1800s
Oil defined the 1900s
Internet defined the 2000s
Space infrastructure might define the next 50 years.
And SpaceX?
That's the first real attempt at owning the entire stack.
Are you investing in space as a them, or are you betting on who actually wins it?
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