About two years ago, I called Nvidia overvalued. Investors were clamoring over the stock, and it went on to become the most valuable company in the world.
All along, my instinct has been to get wary when everyone is singing a stock’s praises and buying it hand over fist. That caution has saved me countless times from getting swept into the speculation. Staying out of the herd has been useful. A recent example: in December 2025, I sold platinum into the gold and precious-metals craze ther than buying it. I still remember the queues snaking outside the shops.
That was the contrarian in me talking. And I think a lot of investors are running that same contrarian instinct on the memory stocks today.
But here’s the thing. Two years on, Nvidia didn’t crash. It broke $5T and stayed the most valuable company in the world. So I did some honest self-reflection and updated my view: avoiding the crowd works most of the time, but not all the time.
So what makes most speculation fizzle and most bubbles burst while the AI trade keeps soldiering on after two years?
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