To The Moon

SpaceX (SPCX) lists June 12 at a $1.75T valuation. The loudest argument isn't among IPO chasers — it's among Tesla (TSLA) shareholders.

Next Friday, June 12, SpaceX rings the bell on Nasdaq.

Price 135 dollars, 555.6 million shares, raising 75 billion dollars in one shot. The largest IPO in history. Valuation: 1.75 trillion dollars.

The forums lit up. And the angriest voices aren't the people trying to get IPO allocation — they're Tesla (TSLA) shareholders. Why? Because both companies answer to the same man.

01 — A quick primer for those new to Tesla

Tesla went public in June 2010 at 17 dollars a share.

It does three things: sells electric cars (Model 3/Y for volume, plus Cybertruck), sells energy storage (Megapack), and sells a story (FSD self-driving, Robotaxi, the Optimus humanoid robot).

It has split twice since listing, 5-for-1 in 2020 and 3-for-1 in 2022, and joined the S&P 500 at the end of 2020. The stock now sits around 417 dollars (cited by a Reddit user; check a live feed), a market cap near 1.7 trillion.

Remember one counter-intuitive thing: this stock has never run on current profit. It runs on narrative. That point matters below.

02 — Why the big moves happened

The surges first.

In 2013, Tesla turned its first quarterly profit as Model S volume ramped. The stock more than tripled that year.

2020 was the wild one. Up 743% in a year. Three things stacked: pandemic liquidity, consecutive profits, and S&P 500 inclusion at year-end. Passive funds had to buy. That lit the fuse.

October 2021: market cap crossed a trillion, sparked by a 100,000-vehicle Hertz order.

Now the crashes. 2022 was the worst year ever, down 65%. Rate hikes were the backdrop. The sharper blow: Musk bought Twitter for 44 billion and dumped roughly 23 billion dollars of his own Tesla stock to fund it. Shareholders watched their own boss sell. They still remember.

2023 doubled back up. Late 2024 hit an all-time high near 480, fueled by post-election hopes around Musk's political alignment and a re-ignited Robotaxi story. 2025 brought another deep pullback: Musk's political entanglements drew backlash, the brand took damage, deliveries turned down, and the valuation stayed sky-high.

Bar lengths are illustrative, not to scale. 2024 was roughly +63% for the year; 2025 saw a sharp pullback (check a live feed for exact figures). Source: Capital IQ

See the pattern? The anchor was never the P/E. It was profit turning positive, index inclusion, liquidity, Musk himself, and the next story.

Grasp that, and you grasp why SPCX matters so much to Tesla.

03 — What SPCX listing does to Tesla

Lay SPCX's cards on the table first.

Fig 2 — SpaceX (SPCX) IPO key figures (Source: Reuters/Moneycontrol; financials from the SpaceX S-1)

Cheap? Not even close. A 1.75 trillion valuation on 18.7 billion of revenue is nearly 94 times sales.

For contrast: Meta (META) is worth 1.5 trillion and nets 60 billion a year. SpaceX loses money. Independent analysts aren't buying it either — Morningstar pegs fair value at 780 billion, under half the target.

So what holds up the 1.75 trillion? Starlink, the cash cow, with 114 billion in revenue and 72 billion EBITDA in 2025 (from the S-1). But a bigger chunk rests on the cash-burning xAI (3.2 billion revenue, ~12.7 billion capex) and on "markets that don't exist yet" — Mars missions, AI data centers in space. Those are Reuters' words.

Back to Tesla. The impact runs down three roads.

Road one: capital drain.

Pure "bet on Musk" used to have one public ticket: Tesla. Now there's SPCX. Some Tesla holders will sell a little Tesla to chase the IPO, near-term pressure on TSLA.

But one retail claim needs correcting: that "index funds are forced to buy SPCX at 3x weight, then dump it." It doesn't hold. SpaceX loses money badly, so it fails the S&P 500 profitability test — no forced buying, no forced dumping. Both versions of the index argument are misunderstandings.

Road two, actually a positive: the Musk overhang lifts.

In 2022 Musk dumped 23 billion of Tesla for Twitter. What Tesla holders fear is the boss raiding Tesla when he needs cash. With a liquid SPCX, he gets another wallet, and the need to sell Tesla drops. A structural plus. But don't rush — his own SPCX is locked up 180 days. A slow-moving variable.

Road three, the one that keeps holders up at night: a merger.

Their script: SPCX uses the high valuation propped up by a thin float as currency to acquire Tesla later. Musk owns more of SPCX than Tesla, so terms would likely favor SPCX holders.

"This has been the swindle each time (see Twitter). Tesla shareholders end up with 20%, SpaceX shareholders with 80%." — Reddit user DrXaos, r/teslainvestorsclub (highly upvoted)

The rational counter: an unfair price risks shareholder rejection and opens the door to an Apple or Google bid, so Musk has reason to offer a fair one. This isn't a listing-day event. It's a medium-term overhang.

Fig 3 — Mainstream Tesla-holder sentiment on Reddit (real top comments, r/teslainvestorsclub)

A word on Tesla's own SpaceX stake. About 2 billion dollars, under 1%, converted from its old xAI preferred (from the Q1 2026 10-Q). The impact on Tesla's cap is roughly 1%, about 3-4 dollars a share. Don't expect it to rescue the stock, don't fear it dragging it down.

So how should an ordinary investor position? I won't decide for you. Here are the plays and what each costs. Weigh them yourself.

Fig 4 — Plays and their trade-offs

One historical rule worth keeping: giant marquee IPOs tend to spike on day one, then fall hard.

Meta (META) listed in 2012 and slid from 38 to the mid-17s within months. Rivian (RIVN) spiked to 179 in 2021, then lost about 80%. A thin float amplifies the swings. The open is when you know the least and the other side is fiercest.

Looking at it all, SPCX is a near-term jolt to Tesla's sentiment and flows. The real decider over the medium term is how a merger gets written.

Starlink is a real business. But the 1.75 trillion price isn't buying today's cash flow — it's a bet on the next decade-plus. What Tesla holders should actually watch isn't SPCX's first-day move. It's the day a "merger" rumor surfaces, and the exchange ratio inside it.

$Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$

Sources

• SpaceX Form S-1, SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001181412) — revenue / loss / segment / Starlink / xAI figures (author-verified)

• Tesla Form 10-Q, Q1 2026, SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001318605) — Tesla's SpaceX stake

• Reuters / Moneycontrol (via Reddit r/SpaceXBets) — $135 pricing, $75B raise, $1.75T valuation

• Morningstar (via Yahoo Finance / Reddit r/ValueInvesting) — $780B fair value

• Reddit r/teslainvestorsclub — retail sentiment and top comments (real users: DrXaos, rkcth, TheS4ndm4n, etc.)

• Public market records — Tesla annual moves, splits, S&P inclusion, the Twitter share sale

• Note: pricing figures are from press reports, not yet in an official SEC pricing filing (424B); use a live feed for current prices.

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