My view: the bottom is likely in for quality AI semiconductor names, but I'm less certain for SOXL.
The recent rebound wasn't just short covering. We're seeing continued evidence that hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google and Oracle) are still increasing AI infrastructure spending. Oracle's massive RPO growth is another signal that AI demand remains strong.
That said, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF. Even if my long-term thesis is bullish, timing matters. A 10% pullback in semis can become a 30% drawdown in SOXL very quickly.
Personally, I'd rather own NVDA, Broadcom, TSMC or SMH than hold SOXL for the long term.
Bull case:
✅ AI capex keeps accelerating
✅ Fed remains supportive
✅ Data center demand continues to surprise
Bear case:
❌ Higher-for-longer rates
❌ AI spending disappoints
❌ Valuation compression
I'm bullish semiconductors over the next 3-5 years, but I treat SOXL as a trading vehicle rather than an investment.
What do you think is the better buy today: NVDA, AMD, SMH or SOXL?
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