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The Biggest Risks Threatening This Highflying Stock Market

Corporate earnings are surging. Economic data are solid. And oil prices are tumbling in the wake of the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement. U.S. stocks have the wind at their back and new records within reach.Yet lurching drops in some recent sessions betray investors' underlying jitters. Many note that big rallies tend to precede a slide. Once stocks have logged huge gains, the question becomes: How much further can they go?At a time of unusual optimism -- with SpaceX shares soaring into orbit and big tech companies plowing hundreds of billions of dollars into the artificial-intelligence build-out -- here are some of the biggest risks that investors are monitoring:. The S&P 500 has already delivered double-digit returns in each of the past three years and is up 9.6% this year, leaving many investors skeptical that the current pace of gains is sustainable.Optimists note the S&P 500's forward-looking price/earnings ratio has actually declined this year. That is because, as much as prices

The Biggest Risks Threatening This Highflying Stock Market

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Economic data are solid. And oil prices are tumbling in the wake of the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement. U.S. stocks have the wind at their back and new records within reach.Yet lurching drops in some recent sessions betray investors' underlying jitters. Many note that big rallies tend to precede a slide. Once stocks have logged huge gains, the question becomes: How much further can they go?At a time of unusual optimism -- with SpaceX shares soaring into orbit and big tech companies plowing hundreds of billions of dollars into the artificial-intelligence build-out -- here are some of the biggest risks that investors are monitoring:. The S&P 500 has already delivered double-digit returns in each of the past three years and is up 9.6% this year, leaving many investors skeptical that the current pace of gains is sustainable.Optimists note the S&P 500's forward-looking price/earnings ratio has actually declined this year. That is because, as much as prices","content":"<html><head></head><body>Corporate earnings are surging. Economic data are solid. And oil prices are tumbling in the wake of the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement. U.S. stocks have the wind at their back and new records within reach.Yet lurching drops in some recent sessions betray investors&#39; underlying jitters. Many note that big rallies tend to precede a slide. Once stocks have logged huge gains, the question becomes: How much further can they go?At a time of unusual optimism -- with SpaceX shares soaring into orbit and big tech companies plowing hundreds of billions of dollars into the artificial-intelligence build-out -- here are some of the biggest risks that investors are monitoring:Stretched valuationsThe S&amp;P 500 has already delivered double-digit returns in each of the past three years and is up 9.6% this year, leaving many investors skeptical that the current pace of gains is sustainable.Optimists note the S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward-looking price/earnings ratio has actually declined this year. That is because, as much as prices have climbed, expectations for corporate profits have risen even more.But stock valuations still look very stretched when measured against the effectively risk-free return that investors can get by holding U.S. Treasurys to maturity.This can be seen in the narrow gap between the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings yield -- the inverse of its P/E ratio, expressed as a percentage -- and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys. The so-called excess CAPE yield -- a measure of that gap that accounts for inflation -- is sitting around 1.3%, near its lowest level of the past decade. Unless bond yields fall, many believe that could prove to be a headwind for stocks.Higher ratesOne key reason bond yields climbed this spring was the war-fueled surge in energy prices, which caused investors to increase bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this year. Now that energy prices are falling again, some expect yields to follow suit.Yields, though, have retreated only marginally since the interim peace agreement was reached. With inflation comfortably above the Fed&#39;s 2% target and moving higher in recent months, many investors are hesitant to get too excited about what a drop in oil prices could mean.Investors also intensified bets on rate increases after last week&#39;s Fed meeting led by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who expressed more concern about inflation than many had anticipated.Though appointed by President Trump, who has pressured the Fed to lower rates, Warsh talked repeatedly at a postmeeting press conference about the committee&#39;s &#34;unanimous and unambiguous&#34; commitment to price stability.AI jittersEven if the Fed does raise rates, some investors believe that it would hardly slow a market propelled by the historic AI build-out.Spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure this year by just four big tech companies is expected to total more than $670 billion -- a larger investment as a share of the economy than the railroad expansion of the 1850s.Still, questions linger about the foundations of that investment boom. In recent months, many investors were excited by the news that the AI startup Anthropic was poised to turn a quarterly profit ahead of expectations -- a sign that the financial rewards of running AI models outweighed their hefty costs.However, that news was followed quickly by a Wall Street Journal report that Anthropic&#39;s competitor OpenAI is considering drastic price cuts, ahead of similar reductions that the company expects at Anthropic, as businesses balk at the expense of AI usage.Whatever the potential cause, many investors see a pullback in AI-infrastructure investment as the biggest threat to stocks, given its importance to both corporate profits and economic growth.&#34;Once you spend one to two percent of GDP on something like AI, if it ever declines, that&#39;s just going to ripple through the economy,&#34; said Michael Antonelli, managing director at Baird.Stock supplyOne result of the AI-driven stock rally has been a big uptick in equity issuance, with companies that need cash to fund AI investments taking advantage of the opportunity to sell shares at high prices.Accounting for both stock sales and retirements, net equity issuance by nonfinancial companies turned positive in the first quarter of this year for the first time since 2021, according to Fed data. That was even before SpaceX raised $86 billion in its initial public offering this month and Alphabet announced plans to raise $85 billion with its own equity offering.So far, investors have managed to absorb this influx of stock supply. But the trend has still raised concerns, given that net equity supply also turned positive not long before previous stock selloffs in 2000 and 2022.Surging equity sales could both be a symptom of a rally in its final stages and a cause of its undoing, with the supply of shares eventually testing investors&#39; demand, said Joe Maher, markets economist at Capital Economics.Positive net equity issuance was likely not a major factor in previous stock bubbles bursting, but &#34;I think you can argue that it was possibly a contributing factor,&#34; he said.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biggest Risks Threatening This Highflying Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biggest Risks Threatening This Highflying Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nDow Jones \n2026-06-22 11:45\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Corporate earnings are surging. Economic data are solid. And oil prices are tumbling in the wake of the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement. U.S. stocks have the wind at their back and new records within reach.Yet lurching drops in some recent sessions betray investors&#39; underlying jitters. Many note that big rallies tend to precede a slide. Once stocks have logged huge gains, the question becomes: How much further can they go?At a time of unusual optimism -- with SpaceX shares soaring into orbit and big tech companies plowing hundreds of billions of dollars into the artificial-intelligence build-out -- here are some of the biggest risks that investors are monitoring:Stretched valuationsThe S&amp;P 500 has already delivered double-digit returns in each of the past three years and is up 9.6% this year, leaving many investors skeptical that the current pace of gains is sustainable.Optimists note the S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward-looking price/earnings ratio has actually declined this year. That is because, as much as prices have climbed, expectations for corporate profits have risen even more.But stock valuations still look very stretched when measured against the effectively risk-free return that investors can get by holding U.S. Treasurys to maturity.This can be seen in the narrow gap between the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings yield -- the inverse of its P/E ratio, expressed as a percentage -- and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys. The so-called excess CAPE yield -- a measure of that gap that accounts for inflation -- is sitting around 1.3%, near its lowest level of the past decade. Unless bond yields fall, many believe that could prove to be a headwind for stocks.Higher ratesOne key reason bond yields climbed this spring was the war-fueled surge in energy prices, which caused investors to increase bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this year. Now that energy prices are falling again, some expect yields to follow suit.Yields, though, have retreated only marginally since the interim peace agreement was reached. With inflation comfortably above the Fed&#39;s 2% target and moving higher in recent months, many investors are hesitant to get too excited about what a drop in oil prices could mean.Investors also intensified bets on rate increases after last week&#39;s Fed meeting led by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who expressed more concern about inflation than many had anticipated.Though appointed by President Trump, who has pressured the Fed to lower rates, Warsh talked repeatedly at a postmeeting press conference about the committee&#39;s &#34;unanimous and unambiguous&#34; commitment to price stability.AI jittersEven if the Fed does raise rates, some investors believe that it would hardly slow a market propelled by the historic AI build-out.Spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure this year by just four big tech companies is expected to total more than $670 billion -- a larger investment as a share of the economy than the railroad expansion of the 1850s.Still, questions linger about the foundations of that investment boom. In recent months, many investors were excited by the news that the AI startup Anthropic was poised to turn a quarterly profit ahead of expectations -- a sign that the financial rewards of running AI models outweighed their hefty costs.However, that news was followed quickly by a Wall Street Journal report that Anthropic&#39;s competitor OpenAI is considering drastic price cuts, ahead of similar reductions that the company expects at Anthropic, as businesses balk at the expense of AI usage.Whatever the potential cause, many investors see a pullback in AI-infrastructure investment as the biggest threat to stocks, given its importance to both corporate profits and economic growth.&#34;Once you spend one to two percent of GDP on something like AI, if it ever declines, that&#39;s just going to ripple through the economy,&#34; said Michael Antonelli, managing director at Baird.Stock supplyOne result of the AI-driven stock rally has been a big uptick in equity issuance, with companies that need cash to fund AI investments taking advantage of the opportunity to sell shares at high prices.Accounting for both stock sales and retirements, net equity issuance by nonfinancial companies turned positive in the first quarter of this year for the first time since 2021, according to Fed data. That was even before SpaceX raised $86 billion in its initial public offering this month and Alphabet announced plans to raise $85 billion with its own equity offering.So far, investors have managed to absorb this influx of stock supply. But the trend has still raised concerns, given that net equity supply also turned positive not long before previous stock selloffs in 2000 and 2022.Surging equity sales could both be a symptom of a rally in its final stages and a cause of its undoing, with the supply of shares eventually testing investors&#39; demand, said Joe Maher, markets economist at Capital Economics.Positive net equity issuance was likely not a major factor in previous stock bubbles bursting, but &#34;I think you can argue that it was possibly a contributing factor,&#34; he said.</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645011257","content_text":"Corporate earnings are surging. Economic data are solid. And oil prices are tumbling in the wake of the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement. U.S. stocks have the wind at their back and new records within reach.Yet lurching drops in some recent sessions betray investors' underlying jitters. Many note that big rallies tend to precede a slide. Once stocks have logged huge gains, the question becomes: How much further can they go?At a time of unusual optimism -- with SpaceX shares soaring into orbit and big tech companies plowing hundreds of billions of dollars into the artificial-intelligence build-out -- here are some of the biggest risks that investors are monitoring:Stretched valuationsThe S&P 500 has already delivered double-digit returns in each of the past three years and is up 9.6% this year, leaving many investors skeptical that the current pace of gains is sustainable.Optimists note the S&P 500's forward-looking price/earnings ratio has actually declined this year. That is because, as much as prices have climbed, expectations for corporate profits have risen even more.But stock valuations still look very stretched when measured against the effectively risk-free return that investors can get by holding U.S. Treasurys to maturity.This can be seen in the narrow gap between the S&P 500's earnings yield -- the inverse of its P/E ratio, expressed as a percentage -- and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys. The so-called excess CAPE yield -- a measure of that gap that accounts for inflation -- is sitting around 1.3%, near its lowest level of the past decade. Unless bond yields fall, many believe that could prove to be a headwind for stocks.Higher ratesOne key reason bond yields climbed this spring was the war-fueled surge in energy prices, which caused investors to increase bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this year. Now that energy prices are falling again, some expect yields to follow suit.Yields, though, have retreated only marginally since the interim peace agreement was reached. With inflation comfortably above the Fed's 2% target and moving higher in recent months, many investors are hesitant to get too excited about what a drop in oil prices could mean.Investors also intensified bets on rate increases after last week's Fed meeting led by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who expressed more concern about inflation than many had anticipated.Though appointed by President Trump, who has pressured the Fed to lower rates, Warsh talked repeatedly at a postmeeting press conference about the committee's \"unanimous and unambiguous\" commitment to price stability.AI jittersEven if the Fed does raise rates, some investors believe that it would hardly slow a market propelled by the historic AI build-out.Spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure this year by just four big tech companies is expected to total more than $670 billion -- a larger investment as a share of the economy than the railroad expansion of the 1850s.Still, questions linger about the foundations of that investment boom. In recent months, many investors were excited by the news that the AI startup Anthropic was poised to turn a quarterly profit ahead of expectations -- a sign that the financial rewards of running AI models outweighed their hefty costs.However, that news was followed quickly by a Wall Street Journal report that Anthropic's competitor OpenAI is considering drastic price cuts, ahead of similar reductions that the company expects at Anthropic, as businesses balk at the expense of AI usage.Whatever the potential cause, many investors see a pullback in AI-infrastructure investment as the biggest threat to stocks, given its importance to both corporate profits and economic growth.\"Once you spend one to two percent of GDP on something like AI, if it ever declines, that's just going to ripple through the economy,\" said Michael Antonelli, managing director at Baird.Stock supplyOne result of the AI-driven stock rally has been a big uptick in equity issuance, with companies that need cash to fund AI investments taking advantage of the opportunity to sell shares at high prices.Accounting for both stock sales and retirements, net equity issuance by nonfinancial companies turned positive in the first quarter of this year for the first time since 2021, according to Fed data. That was even before SpaceX raised $86 billion in its initial public offering this month and Alphabet announced plans to raise $85 billion with its own equity offering.So far, investors have managed to absorb this influx of stock supply. But the trend has still raised concerns, given that net equity supply also turned positive not long before previous stock selloffs in 2000 and 2022.Surging equity sales could both be a symptom of a rally in its final stages and a cause of its undoing, with the supply of shares eventually testing investors' demand, said Joe Maher, markets economist at Capital Economics.Positive net equity issuance was likely not a major factor in previous stock bubbles bursting, but \"I think you can argue that it was possibly a contributing factor,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPYH":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"US6M.BOND":0.88,".IXIC":2,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":0.88,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"US12M.BOND":0.88,"US2Y.BOND":0.88,"US7Y.BOND":0.88,"SMAX":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"CHAT":0.9,"SPUU":0.6,"DIA":0.6,".DJI":2,"TLT":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"US30Y.BOND":0.88,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":0.88,"ARTY":0.9,"US3Y.BOND":0.88,"DMAX":0.6,"AIPO":0.9,"YSPY":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"AGIX":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":35,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}