$Oracle(ORCL)$ Still not catching a bid even as the broader market pushes new highs.
Down about 40% from the early June highs, and the market is clearly still pricing in uncertainty around AI capex intensity and near-term margin pressure.
But that same spending is also what supports the long-term growth framework the management is laying out.
At around 18x forward earnings, the setup is starting to look more like a valuation versus execution debate than a pure growth de-rating.
The bull case hinges on:
• A $638 billion backlog, with about $344 billion expected to convert over roughly 3 years.
• Approximately 31% revenue CAGR guidance through 2030.
If execution stays intact, this type of reset can age very differently in hindsight.
This is a patience and conviction name, not a momentum trade.
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