This week - US inflation and China GDP in view
2⃣Tue: China export data for June could show growth of around 18% year-on-year (YoY). The export boom, supported by strong AI-related capex demand, should remain the biggest pillar. The strong external demand is also reflected alongside the Asian tech supply chain, where Korean and Vietnamese exports rose by 71% and 29% YoY, respectively
Tues night: US June CPI is expected to decline by -0.1% from the previous month while core inflation is forecast to accelerate to +0.3% from May. May's headline inflation was firm, supported primarily by higher gasoline prices, while core inflation increased by +0.2% MoM. As the final inflation report before the FOMC’s July 29 meeting, the release will likely play an important role in shaping expectations for the Committee’s next policy decision
3⃣Wed: China's second quarter (2Q) GDP is expected to moderate from 5.0% YoY in 1Q to 4.4% YoY in 2Q. As growth momentum softens, policymakers are likely to step up support to ensure the annual growth target is achieved. More guidance on the policy outlook could emerge from the Politburo meeting scheduled for the end of this month
China's June industrial production numbers which will also be released on Wed may grow 4.5% YoY, with the petrochemical sector likely remaining a key drag
Retail sales growth in June could be flat YoY on a lower comparison base, although underlying consumer demand remains weak, as reflected in the lacklustre 618 shopping festival performance
Wed night: US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide an updated assessment of economic conditions and business sentiment across the US
4⃣Thu night: US retail sales report for June will provide an update on the health of the consumer. Headline sales are expected to slow to +0.3% for the month. In May, both headline and core sales posted solid gains, with the former partially reflecting higher oil prices
5⃣Fri night: US housing starts for June is expected to rebound after falling to their lowest level since May 2020 in the previous month, while building permits are forecast to remain relatively unchanged
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