To The Moon

I. Weekly Highlights

🔸 Highlight 1: Brent crude breaks $100 as geopolitical risk premium returns

Escalation in the Middle East, compounded by Red Sea and Suez shipping risk, pushed Brent above the $100 mark on 23 July and dragged long-end yields higher across developed markets. The energy shock fed straight into inflation expectations, with sell-side strategists warning that central banks may be forced to abandon a "look-through" treatment of energy prices. After Washington paused strikes on Iran and signalled a willingness to negotiate over the weekend, crude gave back a large part of the move, falling more than 7% in a single session.

🔸 Highlight 2: Dollar posts its biggest weekly gain in over a month; yen hits a 40-year low

Safe-haven demand and higher Treasury yields drove the dollar broadly stronger, with USD/JPY reaching a fresh 40-year high and the yen suffering its worst week since May. The ECB held rates steady on 23 July, weighing on the euro, while long-end yields on both sides of the Atlantic pressed toward multi-year highs. Ahead of the Fed decision and a heavy tech earnings calendar, pricing shifted decisively toward higher-for-longer.

🔸 Highlight 3: Tariff friction re-intensifies alongside the energy shock

The US imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20bn of Canadian goods on 22 July, sending the Canadian dollar to a one-week low and making it one of the most heavily shorted currencies globally. Australia announced it would challenge a new 12.5% tariff, while India said around 45% of its US-bound exports were spared following trade talks. With tariff costs and energy costs rising together, the room for rate cuts in the second half narrowed further.

II. Four Hot Themes

⛽ 1. Energy and the oil & gas value chain: pricing power returns to supply

The week's strongest narrative came from energy. Geopolitical risk and the fragility of key shipping routes have handed pricing power back to the supply side, with Saudi export reliance on the Suez corridor rising and the speed at which spare capacity can respond now the central variable. For upstream producers, free cash flow generation and shareholder returns in a high-price environment are being repriced, with midstream infrastructure and tanker shipping benefiting alongside.

Importantly, this rally is driven by risk premium rather than demand expansion, and risk premium typically unwinds faster than it accumulates — as the weekend reversal demonstrated. The theme is better framed as an inflation and geopolitical hedge within a diversified portfolio than as a directional bet.

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🥇 2. Precious metals: gold holds above $4,000, silver leads commodities

Energy-driven inflation expectations created a textbook macro backdrop for precious metals: rising breakevens, compressed real rates, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and continued structural demand from official-sector gold buying. Gold held comfortably above $4,000 for the week, while silver was among the strongest performers in the commodity complex.

Silver carries both monetary and industrial characteristics, and its supply-demand deficit — supported by solar, electronics and grid investment — remains a focal point, though realised volatility is materially higher than gold's. For most portfolios the asset class functions as ballast and tail-risk insurance rather than a vehicle for chasing short-term beta.

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💵 3. US dollar and short-duration credit: paid to wait

The combination of an energy shock and tariff pass-through has locked in a hawkish policy path, keeping Treasury yields at multi-month highs and delivering the dollar's largest weekly gain in over a month. Price risk in long-duration bonds has not cleared, while hold-to-maturity carry at the front end looks comparatively attractive — with the curve flat, investors can capture meaningful cash yields without taking duration risk.

The second leg of the argument is currency. With the yen at a 40-year low and the Canadian dollar and selected EM currencies under pressure, simply holding dollar assets was a source of excess return this week. For HKD- and USD-denominated investors, USD money market and short-duration strategies remain a core allocation that balances liquidity against yield.

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This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk.