To The Moon

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ is heading into its first major earnings event as a public company, and the market seems to have already picked a side.

The trade looks obvious:

Earnings arrive. Lockup expires. Early investors sell. Stock falls.

That is exactly why the setup is interesting.

Because when everyone is positioned for the same outcome, the biggest risk is often that the expected event has already been priced in.

The stock has already absorbed a lot of fear

$SPCX recently touched around $113, roughly 50% below its peak and below the original $135 IPO price.

The first major unlock, representing around 20% of the float, is expected around the earnings period.

Naturally, investors are focused on the potential selling pressure.

Short interest has built as traders prepare for a flood of new shares hitting the market.

But there is one question the market may be underestimating:

How many existing shareholders actually want to sell?

SpaceX employees and long-term investors have owned shares because they believe in the company's long-term vision.

For many of them, the unlock is not necessarily an exit opportunity.

It may simply be another chance to continue holding one of the most ambitious technology companies in the world.

If fewer shares come to market than expected, the entire bearish setup could unwind quickly.

The real test is not the unlock. It is the numbers.

The more important event is the earnings release itself.

For the first time, investors will get a clearer look at:

• Revenue

• Margins

• Business performance

• Starlink economics

• AI-related ambitions

Until now, much of SpaceX's valuation has been built around future potential.

That creates both opportunity and risk.

Bears argue that the valuation reflects too much optimism.

Their argument is simple:

SpaceX operates in extremely capital-intensive businesses.

Rockets require enormous investment.

Starlink requires constant infrastructure expansion.

Research and development spending remains significant.

Using traditional valuation frameworks, a company with limited current profitability can look extremely expensive.

But SpaceX is not just a rocket company

The biggest difference is Starlink.

Unlike a traditional aerospace company, SpaceX has a recurring revenue business attached to its technology platform.

Starlink brings:

• Real customers

• Real subscriptions

• Real growth potential

That changes the valuation discussion.

The question is not whether SpaceX is expensive based on today's earnings.

The question is whether the company can turn its infrastructure advantage into a much larger commercial platform over time.

The market may be focused on the wrong risk

Right now, investors are debating the unlock.

But the bigger question is whether SpaceX can prove that its long-term vision matches its valuation.

A successful earnings report could shift the conversation away from short-term selling pressure and back toward growth.

A disappointing one could reinforce the argument that expectations have gone too far.

Either way, August becomes an important moment.

Not because of one unlock date.

But because investors finally get a clearer view of the business behind the world's most valuable private space company.

My view: the bearish unlock narrative may be overstated.

The market is assuming many shareholders will rush for the exit.

But for a company built around long-term missions, many early holders may see the unlock as a milestone—not an opportunity to leave.

The real battle is not supply.

It is whether SpaceX can prove that the future investors are paying for is actually being built.